Football Statistics can be a funny thing. People can look at them and come to different conclusions. Yesterday, I read a post from the RedandWhitePodcast.com, in which they pondered whether NC State will ever have a good pass defense. They analyzed the numbers of NC State head coach Dave Doeren while he was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and Defensive Coordinator Dave Huxtable while he was at UNC, UCF, & Pitt. Their interpretation of the data was that Dave Doeren must not be upset with Huxtable’s track record at NC State, because obviously he finds mediocrity acceptable.
While I’m not attempting to disrespect their research, the more I looked at the numbers, the more I found myself seeing them from a different angle.
Let’s take a look at Doeren’s numbers at Wisconsin.
To begin with, Doeren was the Co-Defensive Coordinator for 2006 and 2007. When he fully inherited control of the defense in 2008, the Badgers were coming off of a season in which they ranked 38th in total defense, 42nd in rush defense, and 49th in pass defense. In his final season at Wisconsin he had cut each of these categories nearly in half, with a total defense ranked 20th, and both the rush and pass defense ranked 26th. I’m not sure that the data shows an acceptance of mediocrity in the pass defense.
Let’s now take a look at Huxtable’s numbers prior to arriving at NC State.
In Huxtable’s first year as Defensive Coordinator at UCF the pass defense ranked 58th, and after a dismal 2009 (113th), he helped guide them to 41st in 2010. In three years the passing defense improved 17 spots. The total defense went from 43rd in his first year, to 15th in his final year there. In his one season as defensive coordinator at Pitt, he led them to a total defense ranking of 17th, and his pass defense was actually ranked in the top 20 (20th), where his rush defense was not (31st).
Now I want to look at what Dave Doeren and Dave Huxtable have done with the pass defense since arriving at NC State.
Dave Doeren and Dave Huxtable at NC State
2015- 213.8 yards – 44th
2014 – 210.9 yards – 39th
2013 – 211.9 – 27th
The pass defense has fallen 17 spots in a three year span, but if you look at the actual yardage, the Wolfpack actually gave up less yards in the air in 2014, and managed to fall 12 spots. The difference between the three years is 1.9 yards. The pass defense at NC State hasn’t fallen off the rails in the past three years, and it hasn’t exactly been atrocious.
But these numbers are best understood in context of where they have brought the program. What was the pass defense like before they arrived in Raleigh?
Tom O’Brien Era
2012 – 268.5 – 102nd
2011 – 221 – 49th
2010 – 235.2 – 83rd
2009 – 251.9 – 99th
2008 – 253.8 – 99th
2007 – 212.7 – 30th
Tom O’Brien’s pass defense went from 30th in year 1, to 102nd in year 6, with a gap of over 50 more yards in the air.
In a matter of three years, Dave Doeren and Dave Huxtable have helped the pass defense improve from 102nd to 44th. I don’t think that is a sign they don’t care about pass defense, or settle for mediocrity.
I love statistics, but they don’t always tell the whole story. With that being said, the story I read from the angle in which I examine the stats, I see two coaches who improved the pass defense in their previous posts, and have once again moved another program forward here at NC State.
Yards are down, but it doesn’t translate to in game success. The overall pass yardage is artificially low from playing weaker teams, and we can’t stop anyone in obvious passing situations. We stay way too far off receivers trying to avoid getting beaten deep, so they settle underneath coverage and get first down after first down, or they have enough room to run that they get a 20-30 yard catch.