After rewatching both Syracuse games, you come to a conclusion…

Syracuse isn’t a great team, but they’re a decent team that is huge, and when they play NC State, they use this to their advantage.

Syracuse guards have bullied the Wolfpack

Joseph Girard II, the only player that the Orange plays that is under 6’5 (he’s 6’1), has averaged 22 minutes per game vs. NC State. That’s almost 7 minutes below his average. That tells you something. Jim Boeheim has zeroed in on an advantage he has when they play the Pack…SIZE.

In both games, they have gotten good performances out of freshman Kadary Richmond, and you have to assume you’re going to see a lot of him on Wednesday. With Buddy Boeheim on the floor (6’6 guard) paired with Richmond (6’5), you create a problem for Kevin Keatts.

Earlier this season, when NC State lost two games to Syracuse in the span of just over a week, the Wolfpack lineup looked different. They were really relying on Braxton Beverly and Thomas Allen. Beverly is listed at 6 feet, but he’s more like 5’10 and Thomas Allen stands at just 6’1. Cam Hayes played just 18 minutes in game one and Seabron logged only 16. Meanwhile Beverly and Allen each played 36 minutes.

In game 2, it seemed as if Keatts actually tried to go smaller and more versatile to attempt to create mismatches for Syracuse. Funderburk only logged 23 minutes, but Hayes logged 30 this time around. Seabron only played 9 minutes and Beverly and Allen were still minute-leaders with 34 and 35 respectively. This didn’t work and the Pack fell 77-68.

The reason this all matters is that Syracuse isn’t a great team, but they do have a bunch of guys who are good 1-on-1. Their ability to be successful 1-on-1 isn’t that they are super quick or have great handles. They are actually just bigger and stronger than most teams and have a bunch of guys who can shoot over the top of you.

That’s it. That’s what Syracuse did down the stretch of both games vs. NC State and there was nothing the Pack could do about it. The Orange basically stopped running any offense and just let their bigger guards abuse the smaller Wolfpack guards…watch.

And when you send help, Syracuse is very good at finding the helper’s man and getting them the ball.

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The difference between now and then is that you no longer have the 6’1 Allen getting 30 minutes per game. Instead, you have the 6’7 Seabron getting those minutes. Cam Hayes is getting nearly 30 minutes and Braxton Beverly’s minutes have dropped down to the 20-25 range on most nights.

This is no slight against Beverly, who is playing the best basketball we’ve seen since his freshman season. In fact, the decrease in minutes and the move away from PG is likely THE reason you’re seeing a much more efficient and productive Beverly.

Suddenly, NC State will be rolling out a lineup of 6’4 Cam Hayes, 6’7 Dereon Seabron, 6’7 Jericole Hellems. 6’9 DJ Funderburk and 6’10 Manny bates, becoming one of the only teams in the ACC that can match Syracuse’s size, and takeaway their ability to play bully-ball with their guards.

The X-Factor: Dereon Seabron

So yeah, Keatts can match their size now with guys he trusts, but that is only looking at things through a defensive lends. What about offense?

Well, that’s what it’s going to come down to.

The X-factor in this matchup is going to be Dereon Seabron. Sure, his size, defense, and rebounding against The Orange is badly needed, but will he able to give Keatts enough offense to keep pace with Syracuse?

Seabron is a guy who thrives in transition or when playing downhill. He likes a fast-paced game and is at his best when he has space to maneuver. Unfortunately, you’ll get none of that against Syracuse.

Ok, you might have a few opportunities in transition if your defense can create turnovers, but with the Syracuse zone, 0ffensively, NC State is going to be playing a bit slower, more methodical, and with a lot of open space in the middle.

In the first two Syracuse games, Seabron looked a little lost. He has struggled with his passing, and against the Orange you need to be a confident passer. They trap the corners, collapse around the driver, and they create a ton of traffic in the lane. Seabron needs to stay aggressive, but not get into too many bad situations where he’s committed to going to the hoop and the Syracuse zone quickly collapses on him.

He also hasn’t been great from 3pt range, shooting just 24% on the season and he’s going to need to knock down a few in this one if he’s going to get the minutes NC State needs to give him.

However, despite any freshman shortcomings, Seabron has been an absolute game-changer for the Pack and they’ll need him to be that once again on Wednesday. As we’ve noted, he brings the height to match-up well with Syracuse, but he also is a major disruptor with his length and helps to speed up the game (something State wants to do and Syracuse would rather not do.)

These are the types of plays the Pack is going to need if they are going to come out with the victory vs Syracuse and we think Seabron is one of the only guys on the roster capable of making them consistently.

Dissecting the Syracuse Zone

Offensively NC State has actually done a magnificent job in their zone offense. It’s actually laughable to read people on social media complain about Keatts as an X and O guy because against a zone it’s all about positioning, ball movement, and timing. All things that are drawn up and coached to these guys.

Attacking from the short corner
Take a look at how NC State dissects the zone. They know Syracuse is going to trap the short corner, so when it gets there, Bates has less than a second to make his pass.

With the weakside defender collapsing to cover for the guys doubling, the crosscourt pass to Hayes for the 3 pointer is there, however, that’s a risky pass and to get it over top, you’ll have to lob it, giving the defense a decent chance to close out and disrupt the shot.

What you want to do here, is exactly what NC State does.

Watch Hellems. As soon as that pass is made he creates room by clearing out Boeheim with a tiny bump to put him off balance. That gives him room to separate and dive, where he has a clear lane to the hoop.

With the help side defender forced to cover that skip pass, he can’t sell out and jam Hellems. If he gets into position to do that, the cross-court pass is now wide open. Watch them try that, and how State reacts.

Getting the ball to the short corner and knowing what to do with it is vital in disrupting the zone. But you need to have your forwards thinking quick, doing the little things right, and you need to have shooters ready to make them pay around the perimeter.

Attacking from the high post
The other place NC State has been successful against Syracuse is by getting the ball to the high post.

If you are a team that rotates the ball around the perimeter against the zone, hunting an open shot, then you’ve already lost. That is the whole idea of the zone and you’d be playing right into your opponent’s hands. Catching a pass from the side, squaring up, and shooting a deep 3 with an opponent, hand up, closing in from the side, is one of the tougher shots in basketball. So yeah, you may hit a few, but if you think. you’re going to survive 40 minutes with that method, you’re likely wrong.

Rotating the ball around a zone with speed and using ball fakes and reversals should be done to attempt to get the ball to the high post. That is the Achilles heel of the 2-3 zone.

Now, the problem some teams have is that you don’t have the right guy on your roster to play that high post effectively. However, NC State has the perfect guy.

Jericole Hellems is zone buster. Not because he’s a 3 point specialist, but because he’s extremely versatile and can operate in traffic.

He’s strong, physical, he can shoot is with great efficiency, he’s a good passer and he can score at the rim. All of those reasons are why he’s so dangerous at the high post and why Syracuse is going to do all they can to stop him from getting touches there. Watch…

Look what happens when Hellems catches it at the high post. The middle guy at the bottom of the zone needs to make a decision. Let Hellems shoot or challenge him. If he challenges there’ll be a small window for Hellems to drop it down for the dunk. In this case, because Hellems had been hitting shots, he decided to challenge and it ended in a Bates slam.

Now, let’s see what happens when they try to cut the pass off to Bates and hesitate on the challenge.

It comes down to defense.

As you can see, NC State knows how to pick apart the Syracuse zone. They averaged 77 points per game against the Orange this season (their season average is 74) and shot 44% from the floor in both games (their season average is 47%).

Overall, they have done what they expected to do against Syracuse, offensively. It’s been the defense that has crippled them in both games. As we stated, it hasn’t been poor effort or bad positioning, it has been mismatches due to size. Howeer, with Allen out, Keatts trusting Hayes and Seabron a lot more, and Beverly’s role changing, there is a good shot that the Pack can avoid their size disadvantage, push Syracuse into tough shots, and come out with their 6th win in a row, and their first ACC Tournament victory of 2021.