God bless these guys over here at PI. I submitted this article to them this morning and got this back.
“Joey, this is a good piece, but are you sure you want to come out and say that NC State is going to win? Why not just do a ‘keys to the game.’ or something? Hedge your bets. Why are you always wanting to put your reputation on the line?”
To that I say, “Nah, I’m good. I want my reputation on the line. What fun is this if I’m not callin’ it like I see it?”
Look, they’ve been worried about me stating outlandish opinions before. Like when I said after game #1, after I first laid eye on this team, that it was going to be a team that will flirt with or get into the Top 25? I got hammered for that, but was I right? And today I’m back on my prediction tip, telling you that NC State will survive and advance. And here are my 3 reasons why.
1. Creighton hasn’t fared well against teams with great Turnover Margins.
If Creighton has a glaring weakness, it’s turnover margin.
NC State’s turnover margin ranks 16th in the NCAA. Creighton’s is a miserable 291st. This means Creighton turns the ball over a lot and doesn’t create many turnovers. Meanwhile, NC State is the exact opposite. They create a lot of turnovers and really protect the basketball. This statistic right here is going to play a major role. The Creighton guards, especially Nembhard, can get sped up, and when they do, they can get sloppy and out of control. Meanwhile, Joiner and Smith flourish at top speed.
Let’s look at the one team that Creighton lost to every time they played them (and played them multiple times). That team is Marquette.
What do Marquette and NC State have in common? Well, they are both Top 20 in the nation in Turnover Margin. Marquette ranks #3 in the NCAA while the Pack is 16th. Creighton turned it over 18 times in their first meeting at Marquette. The second time these two teams met, Creighton turned it over 15 times.
The other teams they faced in the Top 50 of Turnover Margin in the nation?
#39 Arizona State
#10 Texas
That’s it. And guess what, Creighton lost every single one of those games. They have yet to beat a team in the Top 50 in Turnover Margin.
Reminder. NC State ranks 16th.
2. Large, back-to-the-basket bigs have fared well against Creighton
6’9, 245lb, Adama Sanogo from UConn dropped 17 against them in a win.
6’9, 215lb, Oso Ighodaro from Marquette dropped 16 on them in their first meeting, and then 18 in their second.
6’7, 220lb, Bryce Hopkins from Providence scored 20 on them in both meetings. One of which was a win.
All of these guys are big, strong, back-to-the-basket bigs and all of them bullied their way to huge games again Creighton.
In all 3 instances, Creighton refused to double-team on most possessions and the big men ate. So how will they deal with a big that is bigger than any of these guys?
DJ Burns is 6’9, 275lbs and he’s going to be a focal point for NC State in this game. If Creighton opts to play Burns straight up, history says they are going to have a long night and Burn is going to have a big game.
3. Creighton hasn’t seen guards like Joiner and Smith
Sure Creighton has quick guards. Nembhard, the 6’0 PG rarely gets a matchup where he doesn’t have a quickness advantage. Today, against Joiner, he won’t have one. There is so much talk about Creighton’s guards bottling up their opponents, but watch them play and you’ll see that they simply haven’t had to face guys like Joiner or Smith. Creighton will allow the floor to be spread and will not fight against playing this game at a fast pace, and those are the types of games we’ve seen the NC State guards feast.
Creighton is a very good team. They have some very good pieces, but I just think they’ve found themselves in a matchup that isn’t very good for them despite being data-darlings. I could be wrong, but to me, this looks like a game where people are reading off statistics and making assumptions without watching film. Without looking at each team’s Achilles heel. And without really breaking down the matchups.
I think this is a really good matchup for the Pack and I think I’ll be back talking to you in about 24 hours looking at who the guys will play on Sunday.
I generally agree with you, but am pretty discouraged about the VT loss. Outside of Cat, our next best offensive options are two sophomores (Caleb & Abu) and a freshman (Mav). So, besides Cat, our offense is pretty young and will get better. Reviewing the VT game: Cat – Good game – too few assists, too many turnovers – but 21 pts and 7 boards is a good game Caleb – Pretty good game, but if he is going to play the 2, he should get some assists – 14 pts, 4 boards – good stuff BeeJay – Good game,… Read more »
Where is all this talent that you write about? I don’t see it on the court as a team. I see people confused, in the wrong position, shooting shots at the wrong time, and loosing games against inferior teams. To me that spells below average talent. Just because you can jump out of the gym, and are faster than lightning, stronger than the average bull, doesn’t mean you can play basketball. This team has too many role players and not enough complete players playing as a team.
I hate to say this because I think he has done a lot for this program. But really with this product that we have on the floor I believe Gottfried should be worried. Let’s look he missed a whole draft class this year he was lucky to get Kirk and Rowan. Next year he only has one guy who is coming off a blown out knee. He missed the guy that everyone said was a lock to be at state. If cat leaves which I am sure he will you will be in same boat next year a team with… Read more »
PackJunky No $hit. I told you guys last year that this team would suck. Well you guys must see what I see now. Anya, Freeman, and Abu should do nothing but practice free throw shooting. The offense scheme also suck and does not fit these guys. Please change something before we meet some good teams.
It’s offiicial… we suck.