It was the best of times and the worst of times…
I cannot understand how a team can go from looking steady and confident for one stretch only to look awful by the next TV timeout. At one point last night NC State was down 16 and was 5-29 from the field, at this point it would have been absurd to think that it would turn out to be a one possession game with 15 seconds remaining, but it was. NC State has an ability to play themselves back into games as they never allow themselves to be defeated mentally.
This is because Coach Gottfried is the same way, he never feels like he is out of it, he has won at every stop in his coaching career and you better believe it that he preaches mental toughness on a daily basis. The Wolfpack got themselves back into the game by attacking on both ends, as well as moving the ball on offense. A 17-4 run in the last 3:38 brought the Pack to a one possession game, only to have the ball go out-of-bounds as Cat tried to get a quick two to prolong the game. Last night Cat had some help as both Maverick, Caleb, and Abu had double figures scoring.
A major deficiency for this team is prolonged scoring droughts, in these moments the players have got to trust the offense and become more selective. It is hard to score in the ACC and a lot of the times it melts down to execution. Coach Gottfried was adamant that his team is not far off, but emphasized that they are not there yet. The little things like being in the right place at the right time will have to be cleaned up. All five guys on the court have to trust one another and talk on defense, from my vantage point the Wolfpack are too quite on the defensive end. They must communicate with each other and limit defensive lapses.
Yes Louisville made every shot that they needed to at the right time, but at the same time most of the looks came at the expense of a lapse in judgement. NC State looks unsure of themselves when it comes to navigating screens on the perimeter, personally I think our on ball defenders settle way to much when it comes to fighting through these top of the key screens. On the other hand the big man have been too inconsistent with the hedge, you never know if it will be a hard hedge that prevents the man from turning the corner or a soft one that does zero good.
All of these things can be improved upon is the good news, film study and experience should help improve this action as the season progresses. One glaring weakness that Gottfried touched on in his post game was free throw shooting. He said it is holding them back, and added that it is a hard thing to improve upon, many may argue that it is not but in fact it is. Free throws are as much mental as they are physical, some many even contend that they are more a mental thing. I’ve seen guys who shoot 75-80% in practice but can seem to find success when the lights are brightest. Hopefully State can make meager strides in this department, or have the right guys get to the line more frequently.
NC State will not quit…
Down by 16 with 3:38 left would have turned extremely ugly for the lions share of teams in the NCAA, but not the Wolfpack. They instead dug deep and played with a desperation that guided them back to have a chance at stealing the game. NC State needs to play with desperation every minute of every game from here on out. Coach Gottfried used full court pressure and put Caleb and Cody in the middle of the press break and let them attack the paint with recklessness, sometimes it resulted in a turnover but in all State only had 10 turnovers on the night. In fact that is once less than the Cards, which is very respectable when thinking about the intense defensive strategy that the Rick Pitino employs.
Lots of fans should be proud of this group as they are giving full effort and playing the game the right way. They play hard and don’t get caught up in extra curricular activities after plays, in addition this group is starting to see that they can play with any team in the nation. I saw it last night as not a single player in black was intimidated or lost belief that they would come back on Louisville. This group has beaten LSU, and had VT by 16 points (in Blacksburg) who just beat UVA. Now I am going to go on record and say I don’t believe in moral victories, a loss is a loss, but I do firmly believe that lessons can be learned in defeat. Sometimes losing can teach a player more than winning.
NC State’s coaching staff will have plenty of fodder to get through to these guys the importance of doing things the right way, if State is going to get over the hump they will need to be disciplined enough to trust the coaches. When this team listens and runs the offense the way it is designed good things happen. When they hedge hard and talk on screens they come up with stops. The season will be determined by the small and simple things.
There is still a chance for these guys, but time is running out…
Two games into the ACC slate and the Pack are 0-2. Many have expected the Wolfpack to struggle this year and finish around 10th in the conference; however, the Pack has the leading scoring in the ACC in Cat Barber. If he can continue his stellar play and get some consistency from his teammates then State may be able to make a run.
Malik Abu is beginning to play better as he has been much more active on offense, not only scoring but in collecting offensive rebounds. On the season he has 6 double doubles, which is looking like the norm for the sophomore. If he can continue to find scoring success in the paint then NC State should become more effective offensively. One thing that has caused prolong scoring droughts is not having a big man to dump the ball down to in order to get an easy basket. Instead State has had to rely on making tough contested jump shots.
Lastly why I think this team still has a slim chance at the NCAA is because there are 16 conference games remaining. The beauty of being in the best conference in America is that it gives a team a nightly opportunity to build the NCAA resume. NC State have a big stretch coming up and need a road win at Wake Forest to gain some confidence.
Each season around mid January to February coach Mark Gottfried has his team playing their best basketball, the ceiling may not be as high as recent years, but you never know.
NC State Basketball
UNC Transfer Dontrez Styles Expected to Visit NC State Soon
UNC Guard/Forward Transfer Dontrez Styles (6’6″/210) is expected to be visiting NC State soon. According to a source, he was expected to take an unofficial visit tomorrow, but it has been rescheduled to Monday.
Styles entered the Transfer Portal on March 17th.
Over the past two seasons, Styles has seen limited action for the Tar Heels, averaging 5.9 minutes in 45 total games (15 this season).
Styles is no stranger to NC State. He played high school for Kinston (Kinston, NC), and was offered by Kevin Keatts. Styles was a consensus 4-Star prospect coming out of High School. 247Sports ranked him as the #62 overall player nationally in the 2021 recruiting class, and the #2 player in the state of North Carolina.
ON3 ranks Styles as the #21 player currently in the Transfer Portal.
NC State Basketball
All-AAC Temple Transfer Damian Dunn Visiting NC State this Weekend
According to a source, Temple All-AAC Transfer Shooting Guard Damian Dunn (6’5″/195) was expected to be at NC State today on an unofficial visit.
Dunn entered the Transfer Portal on March 20th.
— Damian Dunn 🇦🇸 (@Dam1anKD) March 20, 2023
Dunn averaged 15.3 points per game this season, earning 3rd Team All-AAC honors. He shot 41.1% from the field this season, and 34.8% from three-point land.
In 2021-22, he led the Owls in scoring (14.9), and earned 2nd Team All-AAC honors.
Dunn originally is from Kinston, North Carolina, but played his Senior season of High School for Meadowcreek in Georgia, finishing his high school career as a 3-star prospect.
With the almost guaranteed loss of Terquavion Smith, NC State will be in need for a dynamic scorer, and Dunn has proven that he can do just that at the collegiate level.
Currently, Dunn is the 16th ranked player in the Transfer Portal according to ON3.
Dunn is a Redshirt Sophomore this season, with 2 years of eligibility remaining.
NC State Basketball
NC State’s Jack Clark Enters Transfer Portal
NC State Forward Jack Clark has entered the Transfer Portal.
NC State G Jack Clark has entered the transfer portal. Grad transfer. https://t.co/NQ6vpv4XPL
— Verbal Commits (@VerbalCommits) March 24, 2023
I heard from a source that it was close to 50/50 whether Clark would return to NC State next year for his final year of eligibility.
Clark started in 17 of the 23 games that he played in for the Wolfpack this season, averaging 9.0 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Clark led the Wolfpack on rebounding in 22-23.
When it’s all said and done, I wouldn’t be shocked to see NC State pull in 6 players from the Transfer Portal when all the dust settles.
Brace yourself for the ride.
NC State Basketball
A few Point Guards we think NC State will target in the transfer portal
As stated yesterday, NC State lost Ebe Dowuona and might lose a couple more guys to the portal eventually. They also are very likely to keep their core guys aside from Terquavion Smith who is almost surely headed to the NBA.
The Pack has a few glaring needs for next season. They need a starting PG, they need a starting SG and they need a 4/5 guy that can be the bruiser option at the 4 against bigger, stronger teams, and also a guy who can slot in as a backup behind Burns if Mahorcic’s knee doesn’t get back to full strength. Those are the direct needs at this moment, however, based on what guys on the current roster do, there might end up being other needs. That said, we’d going to focus on the needs of today.
There is always the case that transfers can via the portal with no prior connection to the team. That means they aren’t local kids and they don’t have a prior relationship with the coaching staff. While that is possible, it’s not usually how this plays out. What usually happens is a kid wants to come closer to home, or they have some prior relationship with the staff (sometimes both).
So right now we’re going to limit our focus to a few guys that are in the portal and either local or have a prior relationship with the staff. We’re also going to limit the discussion in this piece to just Point Guards.
What is a ‘Keatts’ Point Guard?
NC State runs their offense off of an initial high pick and roll, like many college teams today. That means they need a playmaking PG. Now, a playmaking PG doesn’t mean a guy who just puts up a ton of points (although that is what Joiner was for the Pack last season), but it could also mean a guy who can score but also get his team involved.
Remember, the high pick and roll is not designed to get a PG open shots. Sure, that is one option, but if you have a good PG coming off that high screen, they have 3 real options. Shoot it, pass to the roll guy/pop guy, or draw help and kick out to the corners. If you have a guy who can do all of these things well, then the high pick and roll is nearly unguardable. However, if you have a guy who only does one of those things, the high pick-and-roll looks pretty stagnant and one-dimensional.
Right now, Keatts is constantly criticized for his offensive system, and based on his personnel and how the offense ran last season, I get it. But with a pass-first PG (who can also score), this offense could be really efficient. I think for the sake of the team and the sake of his job, Keatts would be smart to prioritize a PG who is a little more pass-oriented and creates a little more havoc off that screen (meaning he keeps his dribble alive on the drive and probes, not to score necessarily, but to bait the defense to get out of position.)
So, what would you say Keatts’ ideal PG looks like?
Well, we don’t really know. His first two recruited were Lavar Batts and Braxton Beverly, both taken in his first year and both kind of out of desperation. Then he landed Jalen Lecque, who was a 6’4 elite athlete PG, who opted to skip college and go to the NBA. Then he brought on Cam Hayes and Shakeel Moore. Moore was a late addition, who I believe was taken to entice teammate Josh Hall to come to NC State (Hall also skipped college to go to the NBA after committing to State). Hayes, however, was a Keatts guy and Hayes was a 6’2, 185lb combo guard who was known as a shooter and good defender (he ended up being not much of either at NC State unfortunately). Then he brought on Breon Pass, a 6-foot guard who has given State some good minutes the past couple of years, but doesn’t look quite ready to take over as a starter. Pass was known as a good scorer at a smaller NC school, and a very good defender. So far his defense has panned out but not as much scoring as we expected. Next there was LJ Thomas last year. He’s a bigger 6’2 190lb PG. Not quite as quick but more physical. Not as much of a playmaker, but more of a scorer. Then Keatts brought in Joiner this year, a 6’1 scoring threat who never averaged more than 2.3 assists per game before coming to Raleigh.
So, to us, this is Keatts biggest flaw during his NC State tenure. He has an offense built around having an elite PG, and he really hasn’t decided what an elite PG in his system looks like. The best he’s brought in was Joiner, but the offense ended up being a lot of isolation and one on one play. To really reach the next level, Keatts needs to find a PG who is a playmaker and passer, one who can defend and then pair him with an elite scoring guard.
Who is out there right now that we should keep an eye on?
Northern Arizona | 5’11, 175lbs | 18ppg, 2.5 assists, 40% from 3pt range | From Walkerton, NC
Cone started his career off at Virginia Tech. He was a 3 star kid who was super quick, and more of a scorer than a playmaker. He had offers from VT, Tennessee and Baylor, but that was really it. NC State was involved a little bit here but never given an offer.
He had decent stats at VT, but really came into his own when he transferred to Northern Arizona. Obviously, this is weaker conference, but he had 20pts, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists against Michigan State, 17 points and 6 boards against Arizona State. He did get shut down against Texas, scoring just 6 points and turning the ball over 5 times, but this is a guy who had games of 45pts, 38 pts, and 29pts. He’s super quick and really a good shooter. He’s a less physical version of Jarkell Joiner if you ask me. So maybe Keatts sees this as a decent fit, but in my opinion, you need to target a guy who is more interested in getting his teammates involved (but I guess that depends on your ability to lock down an elite scoring 2 guard). I’m also concerned about his 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. You want your lead guard to be better than that.
Kansas | 6’1, 190lbs | 2 ppg, 1.3 assists, 30% from 3pt range | From Durham, NC
Pettiford is a stout, physical guard who can defend, but really hasn’t shown much on the offensive end. That said, he’s had a case of the injury bug during his two years at Kansas. He started with an ankle injury and then had an abdominal injury, both really slowed him down. When he committed to Kansas (after decommitting from Louisville) Bill Self really thought Pettiford was going to be a major contibutor to his team saying “We were very fortunate when Bobby opened up his recruitment last month. He became a priority immediately. We feel Bobby has a tremendous future, great upside and will make an immediate impact for us. His work ethic and drive are something I think every program hopes every player has.”
Pettiford is interesting to me. He’s a very physical guard, a good defender, and a good finisher around the rim, but he’s not super athletic, nor is he a great long-range shooter. He also isn’t someone who is explosive in transition. Those seem to be all things Keatts is looking for in a PG, so you’d think Pettiford isn’t going to be a major target for State, but you never know. He has a lot of talent, but I’m not sure he fits great with the pieces NC State currently has in place. However, in HS he was a really good shooter and showed a real scoring ability, so who knows.
ECU | 6’2, 180lbs | 15.8 ppg, 5.6 assists, 33% from 3pt range | From South Bend, IN
Small isn’t a North Carolina prep kid, but his connection to the state is that he’s transferring from ECU. This is a kid who was a 3-star recruit and only had mid-major offers, but has erupted for the Pirates this season. He’s a big, strong PG who shot nearly 40% from the floor and 33.3% from long range. This year Jarkel Joiner shot 42.8% from the field and 35.4% from long range. So he’s not quite the shooter that Joiner was, but he’s not that far off. He also is more of a playmaker than Joiner. He averaged 5.6 assists per game and 3.4 turnovers per game. He was ranked 18th nationally in assist rate when he went down with a knee injury in mid-January. This is a guy that I think Keatts should try to bring in, and it looks like he’s already reached out.
ECU transfer Javon Small has heard from the following schools since entering the transfer portal, he tells @On3sports:
NC State https://t.co/oY8D4CDfHM
— Joe Tipton (@TiptonEdits) March 16, 2023
Check out his highlights…
WKU | 6’1, 195lbs | 16.5 ppg, 5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 34% from 3pt range | From Shelbyville, KY
McKnight is being listed here because NC State has reached out to him. I’m not aware of any connection with the staff, but he definitely fits the Keatts mold. He’s a little bit of a bigger, stronger guard, and honestly is like an undersized James Harden with the way he creates space and attacks the basket (He’s also a lefty). McKnight is going to be a really unique player no matter where he ends up. He’s got a knack for creating space, great footwork, a nice jumper and he really loves drawing contact on his drives to the hoop. I can definitely see why NC State reached out, and if he really does pattern his game after James Harden, then the NC State high screen and roll offense is the perfect system for him. Don’t look at his frame and think he’s slow, either. The kid has speed and while he’s not going to play above the rim, he’ll be a scoring threat no matter where he lands.
Western Kentucky transfer Dayvion McKnight has heard from the following schools since entering the portal, source tells @On3sports:
Mississippi State https://t.co/rPam5GZvdb
— Joe Tipton (@TiptonEdits) March 22, 2023
Here are his highlights…
As more names get added to the portal with NC State connections, we’ll add them here and reshare this article.
Another one bites the dust. 15 more to come.
The irony is that the high post scheme works best with bigs that can shoot – but had the only one that could shoot transfer b/c he wasn’t used enough. Abu might be able to shoot – but not yet in a real game. The other two work hard, but are worthless offensively more than 5 feet from the basket. So, we live and die by the 3-pointers. It’s a tragedy in the making. I can’t figure out how those bigs haven’t learned how to shoot yet.
I don’t usually agree with much that you write. I however think that you are exactly right when you say that NC State needs to play with desperation every minute of every game from here on out. If they don’t this will be the worst season in the last five years.