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NC State vs #2 Arizona: By the (advanced) Numbers

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NC State takes on #2 Arizona tonight at 7pm. A quick look at the surface numbers says that it should be a lopsided win for the Wildcats. But, look a little deeper at the advanced stats and you’ll see that NC State may have an opportunity to exploit a weakness in Arizona’s game. Take a look for yourself.  (*TLDR: Skip to the bottom for  summary)

Points Per Game

NC State- 90
Arizona- 98

Rebounds Per Game
NC State- 36
Arizona- 40

Assists Per Game
NC State- 16
Arizona- 20

Steals Per Game
NC State- 12
Arizona- 7

Blocks Per Game
NC State- 4
Arizona- 5

FG %
NC State- 49.4
Arizona- 58.8

3-point %
NC State- 26.4
Arizona- 50.9

Free Throw %
NC State- 71.4
Arizona- 58.8

FG %
NC State- 49.4
Arizona- 80.5

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Advanced Stats

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Adjusted Tempo
An estimate of the tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) a team would have against the team that wants to play at an average D-I tempo.
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Arizona- 71.0 (218th)
NC State- 74.0 (49th)

 

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.
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Arizona- 119.2 (2nd)
NC State- 107 (83rd)

 

Committed Turnover %
Arizona- 16.9 (81st)
NC State- 12.9 (11th)

 

Forced Turnover %
Arizona- 17.9 (236th)
NC State- 31.1 (1st)

Offensive rebounding %
Arizona- 38.9 (24th)
NC State- 35.8 (52nd)


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Summary
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When you look at the numbers, at this point in the season, Arizona is better than NC State in mostly every phase of the game. However, the data does points to one area that the Wolfpack has a real advantage.

The tempo stat above shows you that NC State likes to play fast. They are also the nation’s leader in creating turnovers (percentage wise). At the same time, the Wolfpack isn’t committing many turnovers at all. This is saying that NC State plays extremely fast, but they also are able to do so under control. Meanwhile,  opponents are seeming to be bothered by the pace of play.

Arizona ranks pretty low in temp, meaning all of those great stats above are coming from a slower, more methodical pace of play. What happens when you speed them up? What happens to their TO%? What happens to their FG%. They are a great rebounding team, but what happens when the game is being played in transition and rebounders are out of position?

This could get interesting if NC State is able to control the pace and keep the tempo up. All of the sudden, you are forcing Arizona into unchartered waters. How will they respond?

The answer to that question, may tell you who walks away with the win.

NC State Basketball

Georgetown Transfer Dontrez Styles Commits to NC State!

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Georgetown Forward Transfer Dontrez Styles (6’6″/212) has committed to NC State!

Styles was the 2nd leading scorer for Georgetown this season, averaging 12.8 points per game, while grabbing 5.8 boards. He shot 36.8% from three.

Originally, Sytles was a consensus 4-Star prospect in UNC’s 2021 recruiting class. 247Sports ranked him as the #62 overall player nationally, and the #2 player in the state of North Carolina, playing for Kinston High School.

After two seasons with the Tar Heels, Styles entered the Portal, and took an Official Visit to NC State and Georgetown, and ultimately chose the Hoyas.

ON3 ranks Styles as the #104 overall player in the Portal.

With his final year of eligibility, Styles’ made the right choice this time.

NC State now has 2 scholarships remaining after Styles’ commitment.

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NC State Forward Katie Peneueta Enters the Transfer Portal

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NC State Forward Katie Peneueta is entering the Transfer Portal.

Peneueta transferred to NC State last offseason from Sacramento State, where she averaged 8.4 points, shooting 45.5% from three.

In her one year at NC State, Peneueta only played 8 games for the Wolfpack, battling injuries throughout the year. Peneueta has 1 year of eligibility.

With Peneueta entering the Portal, NC State now has 3 scholarships available heading into the 2024-25 season.

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Boston Center Caitlin Weimar is on an Official Visit to NC State

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Boston Transfer Center Caitlin Weimar (6’4″) is currently on an Official Visit to NC State.

Weimar is the reigning Patriot League Player of the Year, and has been named Defensive Player of the Year the past two years. She has earned 1st Team Patriot League Honors the past two seasons.

This year, Weimar averaged 18.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks. As a Junior, she averaged 15.5 points and 10.0 rebounds. She shot 55.5% this year, and 59.7% last year.

With NC State not having River Baldwin at Center next year, adding Weimar is an extremely exciting possibility.

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What did an ACC Title & Final Four Mean to NC State Legend TJ Warren?

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What did an ACC Title & Final Four mean to NC State Legend TJ Warren? I caught up with the man who won the ACC Player of the Year Award in 2014 to get his take.

What was it like for you watching NC State go from the #10 seed in the ACC Tournament, to winning the Championship, to going to the Final Four?

I’m a second generation Wolfpack basketball player. Wolf blood runs through my veins, so to be able to witness a ride like that was truly amazing.

What did this run say about Kevin Keatts and these players? In what ways did you see them adapt, change or persevere?

I think that is speaks to the heart that the players have. As a 10th seed in the ACC tournament, it’s easy to pack it in and look towards the offseason, but they did the opposite. They bonded together over adversity and that’s what made them so endearing. Hard work in the face of adversity, that’s something that Wolfpack fans can relate to.

As one of the best players to ever wear the Red & White, what did this run mean to you personally?

As I mentioned earlier, NCSU hoops has been in my family for a long time, so it meant a whole lot personally. This run definitely took me back to some of the fond memories I have of putting on the Red & White and playing in front of a packed house at the PNC.

What was the most memorable moment for you?

I think Mike’s shot to tie the game at the end of regulation. It just felt like destiny at that point. Anytime you get to beat UNC and Duke days apart is special too.

How do you think this run can change things for the NC State Basketball program going forward?

I think that it puts us back on the national radar where we belong. After a magical run like that, I think it makes players want to be a part of that. A run like that reinvigorates a program definitely.

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Warren is 1 of only 6 NC State players to ever be named the ACC Player of the Year. In his Sophomore season, Warren was named a 2nd Team All-American by Sporting News and the AP. He averaged 24.9 points per game, which is the 5th best mark in a single season in NC State history. Warren scored 871 points that year, which is the most points ever scored in a single season by a Wolfpack player.

TJ was selected by the Phoenix Suns with the 14th overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft.

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