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NC State vs. #2 Duke: By the (advanced) Numbers

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NC State takes on Duke at home tonight at 8 pm on ESPN. The Blue Devils come into this game ranked #2 at 13-1 on the season. Their only loss came against BC at their place. Their quality wins are over then #2 Michigan State, #7 Florida, and #24 FSU.

 

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game.  Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)

Effective FG% Offense
Duke- 57.3 (20 in nation)
NC State- 52.1

The takeaway: As usual, Duke can shoot. Their eFG% is 20th in the nation thanks to guys like Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter shooting over 60% from the floor. Grayson Allen is also checking in at 47.6% from the field, which is pretty elite for a guy who takes as many contested shots as he does. Meanwhile, NC State is trending downwards and fast. Their guards continue to be ice cold from long range and now their bigs aren’t looking quite as dominant as they did a few weeks ago. In ACC play so far, Abu is 3-9 (33%), Yurtseven is 8-20 (40%), and Freeman is 7-12 (58%).  As you can see, this is a big problem right out of the gate.

Effective FG% Allowed
Duke- 48.1 (84 in nation)
NC State- 49.1 (110 in nation)

The takeaway: These numbers are pretty close, but Duke barely edges out the Pack in eFG% defense. Honestly, the defense hasn’t been that great for either team and perimeter defense is certainly Duke’s weakest link. That said, Duke does have more athletes than State and actually has shown some zone. With the Pack’s 3pt shooting problem, Duke may opt to go that route.

Turnover % on offense
Duke- 15.4 (19 in  nation)
NC State- 17.3 (71 in nation)

The takeaway: Duke does a good job, as usual, at taking care of the basketball and State is just decent. However, State could be really good if Al Freeman and Torin Dorn would stop giving it away. Combined those two have turned it over 75 times. The entire rest of the team (not including Markell Johnson). If you’re looking for an area that killing the Wolfpack, this is one. Both Freeman and Dorn have negative assist-to-turnover ratios. At least Dorn is providing some rebounding and 55% shooting from the floor to attempt to balance that out. Freeman is turning it over like crazy, shooting 33%, and taking by far the most shots on this team.

Turnover % Forced
Duke- 16.6
NC State- 22 (39 in nation)

The takeaway: Sinc Markell Johnson went out, NC State hasn’t quite turned people over like Keatts would like. They are still doing a decent job, but teams are breaking the press easier and moving it around the perimeter with ease when before they were struggling to get it over half court, and getting anywhere on the court was a task for the guards. Duke isn’t really that good at creating turnovers either. They have young guards who don’t quite understand how to play pressure defense, and the vets they do have aren’t all that quick.

Offensive rebounding % Offense
Duke- 43 (1 in nation)
NC State- 36.4 (12 in nation)

The takeaway: NC State is a great offensive rebounding team, but Duke is better. This is going to be a problem area for the Pack. NC State gives up a lot of offensive boards as it is, and with Duke being the best in the nation, I think you might see Bagley have a hayday in the paint.

Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Duke- 27.3 
NC State- 31.9

The takeaway: As we stated, NC State gives up a lot of offensive boards, and Duke is the best at grabbing them. However, Duke isn’t really all that great at stopping them either. I’m not sure how it will play out, but Yurtseven, who is one of the better offensive rebounders in the nation, is going to have a tough time getting his numbers with the athleteic Bagley down there.

FT Rate Offense 
Duke- 34.4
NC State- 40.2 (47 in nation)

The takeaway: NC State gets to the line at a good rate, but really could be even better if they didn’t settle for so many 3s. Duke doesn’t, and its because they get a lot of their shots from the perimeter and off second-chance points. Allen is good at getting to the line, but after that, Duke doesn’t have many guards who like to attack and draw contact.

FT Rate Allowed
Duke- 23.3 (14th in nation)
NC State- 34.3 

The takeaway: Duke is great at not allowing teams to get to the line, statistically. However, looking at the rest of their numbers and their roster, I don’t get it. Maybe it’s because Bagley is erasing so many shots, but Duke is young and they aren’t that great defensively. So why don’t teams get to the line against them? Honestly, it probably has more to do with the reffing than it does with the personnel.

———-

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free throw line.

 

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NC State Falls Out of the Top-10 After Losses to UNC & Duke

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After losing to rivals UNC and Duke last week, the NC State Women’s Basketball team fell out of the Top-10 in the Week 17 AP Poll, landing at #12. NC State started the 2023-24 season unranked, but jumped to #14 in the first Poll after the Preseason Poll. The Wolfpack have been ranked in the Top-10 since November 20th, which equals 14 straight polls.

ACC Teams in the Top-25

5. Virginia Tech
12. NC State
17. Notre Dame
19. Syracuse
22. Louisville
27. Duke
29. UNC
30. FSU

The Wolfpack will host #19 Syracuse on Thursday night at 7pm.

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NC State’s Week 1 Depth Chart Against UCONN (with Notes)

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NC State will kick off their 2023 Football season next Thursday night against UCONN at 7:30pm. The Wolfpack released their Depth Chart for the game today.

Image

Notes

  • Redshirt Sophomore Anthony Carter Jr. is listed as the starting Left Guard. If Redshirt Sophomore Lyndon Cooper wasn’t missing the first game due to injury, I wonder if Carter would be starting. Doeren did praise Carter in his press conference today. Also, he stated that Cooper should be back for the Notre Dame game.
  • Noticeably, Graduate Transfer Offensive Lineman Dawson Jaramillo is also missing from the Depth Chart. Unfortunately, Jaramillo has suffered an injury, and will miss the entirety of the 2023 season. This is a huge blow for Jaramillo, and a huge blow for the depth of the Wolfpack Offensive Line. Jaramillo was a Swiss Army knife, having the ability to play in numerous positions.
  • Very often, Doeren has stated that the “Or” in between two names means that the coaching staff sees both players as starters. There is an “Or” in between Chris Toudle and Trent Pennix at Tight End, with the former being listed first. Maybe it doesn’t matter whose name is listed first, but I’m shocked Pennix’s name wasn’t the one at the top.
  • I’m not shocked that Julian Gray and Keyon Lesane are listed as the starters at the X and Y Wide Receiver positions. They both have had a lot of buzz surrounding them in Fall Camp, and Lesane was named a captain. Obviously, with Gray’s speed, Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae is going to want to find a way to get the ball in his hands. With that being said, and this is no disrespect to the two of them, but both of them are 5’11”, which isn’t exactly the way you would sculpt your prototypical outside receivers. I expect Terrell Timmons and Bradley Rozner to both be heavily in rotation at the X and Y, to give the outside receivers a good dose of speed as well as height.
  • True Freshman Running Back Kendrick Raphael might be buried at the bottom of the Depth Chart at his position, but I bet he sees a carry before Mimms or Jones. Doeren mentioned that we would see Raphael against UCONN, but didn’t mention Jones or Mimms. Anae likes to run 2 Running Back sets, with one of them almost functioning like a Full Back. As a result, I’m not shocked to see Jones and Mimms where they are in the Depth Chart.
  • Props to True Freshman Kevin Concepcion for earning the starting job at the Inside Wide Receiver position. Get ready to hear his name a lot this year. KC is backed up by Redshirt Sophomore Jalen Coit, who Doeren spoke highly of today.
  • Junior Porter Rooks is no longer sitting behind Thayer Thomas on the Depth Chart. Doeren said that Rooks has had a great camp. The former 4-Star prospect has an opportunity to show that those stars meant something by his name. With that being said, he will be pushed by True Freshman Javonte “Juice” Vereen, who even has national media buzzing about him heading into the season.
  • Three True Freshman are on the Offensive Depth Chart: Left Guard Kamen Smith, IWR Kevin Concepcion and FLEXY Juice Vereen.
  • True Freshman Kamal Bonner is 2nd on the Depth Chart at the Will Linebacker spot, backing up Payton Wilson. What’s noteworthy, is that he’s ahead of former 4-Star prospect Jordan Poole in the Depth Chart. Bonner must have made a heck of a first impression.
  • As expected, ODU Graduate Transfer Robert Kennedy is starting at Nickel.
  • True Freshman Brandon Cisse is backing up Aydan White at Right Corner, and Doeren said we should expect him to contribute.
  • Redshirt Sophomore Jalen Coit will be filling in the shoes of Thayer Thomas at Punt Returner.

 

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Elliot Avent is interviewed on MLB Network about rule changes and Wolfpack Alums

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Elliot Avent gave a great interview on MLB Network.

Avent talks about the rules changes in baseball and doesn’t seem too pleaseed about them, while also breaking some news that they might be naming the hitting facility after Trea Turner and the Pitching lab after Carlos Rodon.

Give it a watch.

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Mady Traore Will No Longer Enroll at NC State

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This unfortunately seemed inevitable.

According to 247Sports’ Travis Branham, 3-Star Mady Traore is no longer planning on enrolling at NC State.

Traore was a member of the Wolfpack’s 2022 recruiting class, but wasn’t able to enroll in the Fall because of Visa issues and the English Competency Test.

Back on November 29th, I posted the following article, saying that Traore was set to join the team for the 2nd semester. Traore himself told me when I posted it, that he was expecting to join the team in December.

I received the intel 2 weeks prior to posting, and prior to things beginning to brew between NC State and Isaiah Miranda. In hindsight, I wish I would have posted it when I got the intel (haha).

4-Star Mady Traore Expected to Suit up for NC State Soon

Obviously, that didn’t happen, and isn’t happening.

When I posted the article, things were in flux, because there was one scholarship available. If Miranda came, he was going to get the scholarship, and the staff was hoping Traore would be willing to wait and enroll in April. If Miranda didn’t come, then the expectation was for Traore to join the team in December, in the way that Miranda just did.

I still believe my source’s info was solid, and there are always a lot of moving pieces in play that can change scenarios quickly.

From what I hear, the staff was genuinely hopeful they could add Miranda in December, and Traore in April, but it didn’t work out that way, and that’s the way it goes sometimes.

We wish you the best Mady! You’ve got a special future in basketball.

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