NC State is at Syracuse tonight at 9pm. The Orange come into this game at 17- 8 on the season and are tied with NC State at 6-6 in the ACC. They currently on a 2 game winning streak, one of which was a road win over Louisville (who is 8-5 in conference) which is probably their best win to date.
We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)
Effective FG% Offense
Syracuse- 47.4
NC State- 51.9
The takeaway: NC State isn’t a great shooting team, but Syracuse is significantly worse. They shoot a so-so 42% from the floor, but an awful 32% from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, the Pack comes in at 46% from the floor and 34% from 3pt range. The Orange really is a team built to play in their zone. They are big, long and athletic, and aren’t known to be shooters. But that hasn’t stopped them from shooting better than 45% from 3-pt range in their last 2 games. If they are hitting 3s, they are winning.
Effective FG% Defense
Syracuse- 46 (15th in nation)
NC State- 51.8
The takeaway: NC State has got to force the Orange into tough shots and make sure they don’t continue their hot perimeter shooting. The good news is that NC State has done a very good job at running guys off the 3 pt line. They held UNC to 35% Virginia Tech to 30%, Notre Dame to 33%, UNC again to 21%, and Pitt to 27% from 3. This was an area that the Pack struggled early this season, but lately, they’ve been really good. Meanwhile, Syracuse is one of the nation’s best at keeping down eFG% thanks to their long, active zone. The Pack has struggled against the zone this season, and Syracuse’s takes it to a whole new level. Their team has an average height of 6’8 (which is the tallest D-1 team in 10 years). It will be up to the Pack to make shots from deep if they want to win.
Turnover % on offense
Syracuse- 18.7
NC State- 16.8
The takeaway: Syracuse will turn it over. Sure, they only average 12 TOs per game, but they play slow, I mean REAL slow. They don’t get a ton of possession, so turning it over 12 times ends up being a problem. NC State is certainly going to try to speed them up with full-court pressure. Getting deflections and creating turnovers will help NC State push the pace and beat the zone before it can set up.
Turnover % forced
Syracuse- 20.2
NC State- 21.2 (39th in nation)
The takeaway: Both teams are pretty good at forcing turnovers, but they do it in different ways. NC State does it by speeding you up, while Syracuse does it with their length and size. It’s hard to get clean looks against Syracuse’s size, so teams try to force it into the paint and get in trouble. Whoever wins this battle will have a big advantage in this game, which will be a battle of possessions.
Offensive rebounding %
Syracuse- – 35.3 (13th in nation)
NC State- 35.2 (17th in nation)
The takeaway: Like UNC, Syracuse is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Also like UNC, they are where they are because they have size at every position. For State, they may need to go big to compete on the boars vs. ‘Cuse. Yurt won’t have a size advantage in this one as the Orange have Paschal Chukwu, a 7’2 monster in the middle who leads them in offensive rebounds.
Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Syracuse- 28.1
NC State- 31.1
The takeaway: Syracuse is just an all-around good rebounding team. They do a good job at keeping teams off the offensive glass, thanks to their size. State, on the other hand, has struggled on the boards against teams with size. They will need a gritty performance from some guys they usually don’t count on for rebounds.
FT Rate Offense
Syracuse- 41.6 (15th in nation)
NC State- 34.5
The takeaway: Syracuse gets to the line a lot. It’s likely because of their size and the fact that they struggle from beyond the arc. They are going to attack the rim and NC State needs to be ready.
FT Rate Allowed
Syracuse- – 31.5
NC State- 32.9
The takeaway: Neither team is great at keeping teams off the line, but NC State will certainly be the team that needs to watch this number. If Syracuse is getting in the lane and getting to the line, then the Pack is in trouble.
Overall
Truth be told, this is a very tough matchup for the Pack. This is a team that has struggled against size and struggled against teams that want to slow it down. It’s going to be a grind-it-out possession game and Keatts has to have these guys laser focused and ready to play that way. They can’t get flustered when they aren’t able to push the pace or into the lane with ease. They need to have a gameplan, follow it and knock down shots. If you can score against Syracuse you win. If you can’t, then you will get involved in their brand of basketball, which is slow, ugly, but mostly effective since they are built for that.
Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.
Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.
Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.
Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.