Trusted ‘Dance Card’ formula now has NC State as 100% in the NCAA Tourney

The the “Dance Card” formula was developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University and is designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

This formula has correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%).

According to the “Dance Card,” NC State is ranked #32 and has a 100% chance of getting a bid as of February 26th.

When you project this out, it looks like NC State would land the final 8 seed.

I still think if the Pack wins out and has a decent showing the ACC Tournament that they will finish up closer to a 5 or 6 seed. That’s not based on anything other than the fact that I believe analysts and media are weighing SOS way more than they should be. The committee always leans to teams with big road / neutral site wins and NC State has those. They also have 10 wins in the toughest conference in the country and 20 wins overall. Make that 12 and 22 and you’re looking at one of the nation’s better resumes.