NC State has more elite wins this season than I can remember them ever getting during the Gottfried era, but somehow there are some that still consider the Wolfpack a bubble team. The reason is that the RPI, the BPI and this new quadrant system all have them right on the cusp, but those metrics really that reliable? We’d argue that while they do a decent job, they have holes.
For instance, the RPI and BPI metrics really weigh strength of schedule heavily (which NC State ranks poorly in). The fact that they played a weaker non-conference schedule minimizes the fact that they beat #2 Arizona on a neutral court, #10 UNC on the road, #2 Duke, #25 FSU, #19 Clemson, Louisville and Syracuse. Also, when you look at the quadrants, a quadrant one wins means you beat a Top 30 team at home, a top 50 team on a neutral court, or a top 75 team away. But what about if you beat the #2 team on a neutral court? What if you beat the #2 team at home and the #10 team on the road? Doesn’t help you. They are all quadrant 1 wins at the end of the day.
The point I’m making is that the NCAA committee aren’t robots. They aren’t’ tied to metrics. You can keep talking in quadrants if you want, but they are going to look at those impressive wins and that is what is going to put NCAA in the big dance.
Don’t believe us, here is what the experts had to say.
Still think NC State gets a bid on Sunday. Metrics aren’t great and the non-conference SOS is abysmal, but they’re 8-9 against Quadrants 1 + 2 with wins over Duke, UNC, Clemson, Arizona, Florida State — as well as ACC bubble teams Syracuse, Louisville and Notre Dame.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) March 7, 2018
Wait why do people think NC State is in any way a bubble team? What’s the “they should be out” argument?
— Micah Adams (@MicahAdams13) March 7, 2018
I’d think a BC win puts NC State closer to the bubble. Personally, I think NC State has done enough to get in regardless. https://t.co/vHHKFylNad
— Mike Waters (@MikeWatersSYR) March 7, 2018
I know “eye test” isn’t a metric the NCAA Tourney committee uses, but hopefully common sense prevails with NC State. Ask any coach whether they’d rather see NC State, or say Syracuse or K-State, absolutely NO ONE is picking the Wolf Pack. NC State should be in the NCAA Tourney
— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) March 7, 2018
NC State (21-11) gets upset by Boston College. I think the Wolfpack will be fine and in, but this loss obviously will cost it a seed line. Wolfpack have beat Duke, Zona, UNC and Clemson.
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 7, 2018
Here is where Lunardi had NC State before today….
…25-Hou, 26-Ark, 27-A&m, 28-SHall, 29-URI, 30-Creigh, 31-Mizzou, 32-VaTech, 33-NCSt, 34-Butler, 35-FlaSt, 36-Okla, 37-StBona, 38-ArizSt, 39-KState, 40-StMary, 41-Prov, 42-Baylor, 43-Texas, 44-Usc, 45-Ucla, 46-Bama…
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 7, 2018
and here is where the trusted ‘Dance Card’ had the Pack before today…
So yeah, according to the experts NC State should have more basketball to play. We’ll just have to wait until Sunday night to find out for sure.