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Previewing NC State vs. Miami: By the Numbers

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#18 NC State and Miami will kickoff their ACC slate tonight down in Coral Gables at 7pm on ESPNU, but before they do, let’s break down the matchup by the numbers.

To break down the matchup, I will primarily be referencing the Four Factors that Dean Oliver made famous almost two decades ago: Effective Field Goal Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebounding Percentage, and Free Throw Rate.

Oliver concluded that these were the Four Factors of Basketball Success, with their level of importance being in that order.

  • Effective Field Goal% is an alternative to FG%, which inflates when the team makes three pointers.
  • Turnover Rate is an estimation of turnovers committed by a team per 100 possessions.
  • Offensive Rebound Rate is the percentage of contested rebounds that a team grabs after its own missed shots.
  • Free Throw Rate is the number of free throw attempts per every field goal attempt. Apart from easy points, free throws contribute towards opponent’s foul trouble. (Link)

NC State Offensive Four Factors vs. Miami

The Wolfpack enters the contest as one of the hottest shooting teams in the land, ranked 5th nationally in Effective FG% (59.5%). In comparison, Miami’s Effective FG% Defense ranks 131st nationally (49.4%).

NC State hasn’t done a good job taking care of the basketball through non-conference play, ranking 157th nationally in Turnover % (18.7%). Fortunately, the Hurricane’s Defensive Turnover % is middle of the road, ranking 70th nationally (21.4%).

The Wolfpack has shown they are one of the best nationally in crashing the offensive glass through the first 13 games, ranking 8th nationally in Offensive Rebounding % (38.5%). Miami isn’t excellent when it comes to boxing out to snag defensive rebounds, ranking 117th (27.1%).

As aggressive as NC State is at running the court, they haven’t been successful at getting to the charity stripe, ranking 211th in Free Throw Rate (32.4). The Wolfpack aren’t going to get any favors in this area from the Hurricanes tonight, who rank 3rd nationally in Defensive Free Throw Rate. They keep their hands to themselves.

NC State Defensive Four Factors vs. Miami

Miami ranks 60th in Effective FG% (54.1%), and the Wolfpack hold their opponents to an EFG% of 46.8%, which ranks 62nd nationally.

The Hurricanes don’t do a great job holding onto the basketball, ranking 101st nationally in Turnover % (17.6%). Not good sign for the home team tonight…the Wolfpack rank 3rd nationally in Defensive Turnover % (25.7%)

Don’t expect Miami to dominate the offensive glass tonight, ranking a dreary 239th in Offensive Rebounding % (26.5%). The Wolfpack have been halfway decent at keeping their opponents off the offensive glass, ranking 63rd nationally (25.4%).

Fortunately, when it comes to the last factor, Miami is weak where NC State is weak. The Hurricanes rank 205th in Free Throw Rate (33.0), and NC State ranks 267th (38.3) in Defensive Free Throw Rate. The Wolfpack aggressively foul, but Miami isn’t aggressive offensively.

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When it comes to Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, NC State holds the edge in both.

 

 

NC State Basketball

NCAA to Move 3-Point Line Back to International Distance

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When NC State played in the 2019 National Invitational Tournament, there were a variety of experimental rules put in place. One of those was moving the 3-Point line back 1 foot, 8 inches, which is the distance used by the FIBA (International Basketball Federation).

The NCAA considered the experiment successful, and recently approved a rule change to move the arch back to 22 feet and 1¾ inches. This rule will be implemented at the start of the 2019-20 season.

Senior Wolfpack Point Guard Markell Johnson had no problem shooting it from further back, hitting 9-17 (52.9%) in the Wolfpack’s 3 games in the NIT.

As a team, NC State shot 33.3% from the new standard, which was slightly under their season average of 35.3%.

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NC State’s Torin Dorn Worked Out for the Hornets Yesterday

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Former NC State Wing Torin Dorn worked out for the Charlotte Hornets yesterday.

Yesterday’s workout was technically Dorn’s first pre-draft team workout, but he did participate in an agent pro day in Phoenix two weeks ago. Dorn also played well in the Portsmouth Invitational at the end of April.

I would be shocked to see Dorn drafted, but workouts like these could help him get an invite to the NBA Summer League or get a G-League contract.

Photo Credit

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NC State Men’s Basketball to Host Wisconsin in Big Ten-ACC Challenge

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RALEIGH, N.C. – The NC State men’s basketball team will host Wisconsin in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, the league announced on Thursday.

The game is scheduled for Wednesday, Dec. 4. Tip-time and broadcast information will be released later.

The match-up will be the fourth all-time between the two programs. Wisconsin has won all three previous meetings, including last season’s game in Madison, Wis., 79-75. Markell Johnson led the Pack with a then-career-high 21 points in defeat.

NC State returns six of its top-seven scorers from last season’s 24-12 team.
 
Wisconsin returns six of its top-eight scorers from last season’s 23-11 team.

Additional opponents and dates for the 2019-20 season will be announced at a later date.

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NC State’s Markell Johnson 1 of Andy Katz’s Favorites to Win the 2020 Jerry West Award

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NCAA.com’s Andy Katz is already looking to next year, and released his 11 favorites (and 14 other contenders) to win the 2020 Jerry West Award, given to the nations best shooting guard annually, beginning in 2015.

NC State Senior Markell Johnson ranked 6th on Katz’s list.

6. Markell Johnson, Sr., NC State: The Wolfpack got its stat stuffer back on the roster after Johnson decided to return to campus. He averaged a dozen points a game last season. Expect that number to climb as well as his overall production.

NCAA
  1. Myles Powell, Sr., Seton Hall
  2. Anthony Edwards, Fr., Georgia
  3.  Cole Anthony, Fr., North Carolina
  4. Aaron Henry, So., Michigan State
  5. Sam Merrill, Sr., Utah State
  6. Markell Johnson, Sr., NC State
  7. Jarron Cumberland, Sr., Cincinnati
  8. Alpha Diallo, Sr., Providence
  9. Davide Moretti, Jr., Texas Tech
  10. Marcus Evans, Sr., VCU
  11. Tyrese Maxey, Fr., Kentucky
  12. Trent Frazier, Jr., Illinois
  13. Remy Martin, Jr., Arizona State
  14. Braxton Key, Sr., Virginia
  15. Kellan Grady, Jr., Davidson
  16. Ty-Shon Alexander, Jr., Creighton
  17. David Collins, Jr., South Florida
  18. Joe Wieskamp, So., Iowa
  19. Fatts Russell, Jr., Rhode Island
  20. Cartier Diarra Jr., Kansas State
  21. TJ Gibbs, Sr., Notre Dame
  22. Kyle Lofton, So., St. Bonaventure
  23. Matt Coleman III., Jr., Texas
  24. Quade Green, So, Washington
  25. Dejon Jarreau, Jr., Houston (NCAA)

Duke’s RJ Barrett won the Jerry West Award this year.

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