They say that you can predict who is going to win a basketball game by focusing on the ‘Four Factors’ — shooting (effective field goal percentage), rebounding (offensive and defensive rebounding rates), turnovers (turnover rate), and getting to the free-throw line (free throw rate) — and generates how many points a team scores, and gives up, per 100 possessions.
We wanted to put this to the test and see where NC State and Syracuse rank when put up against each other. Take a look.
Offensive Four Factors
Effective FG%
NC State – 53.2% (54th)*
Syracuse – 50% (178th)
Off Rebound%
NC State – 29.3% (125th)
Syracuse – 30% (105th)*
FTA/FGA
NC State – 31.7 (169th)*
Syracuse – 28.9 (241st)
Turnover%
NC State – 18.6% (158th)
Syracuse – 16.1% (30th)*
Defensive Four Factors
Effective FG%
NC State – 50.7% (199th)
Syracuse – 48.5% (109th)*
Off Rebound%
NC State – 32.2% (313th)*
Syracuse – 33.4% (334th)
FTA/FGA
NC State – 30 (136th)
Syracuse – 24.6 (29th)*
Turnover%
NC State – 22.3% (32nd)*
Syracuse – 21% (63rd)
According to the Four-Factors, this game is going to be close.
NC State is a more efficient scoring team, but Syracuse is better at holding their opponent to a lower efficiency percentage. Syracuse is better on the offensive glass, but NC State is better than Syracuse at not letting teams get on the offensive glass (however, both are not very good).
Syracuse both gets to the line a lot more and doesn’t allow opponents to get to the line, while NC State forces a lot more turnovers than Syracuse, but Syracuse doesn’t really turn it over that much.
What all of this means is that if the numbers are correct, this game is going to be an uphill battle for both teams. Where one excels offensively, the other seems to excel defensively, negating any advantage one may have.
It is worth noting that NC State’s stats may be a little misleading since they are an entirely different team than they were a few weeks ago. Instead of a guard-heavy, turnover forcing machine, they have become a bigger, more traditional team with great size and versatility. That is actually exactly what Syracuse is. So how this game plays out is anyone guess.
If you want a closer look into what Syracuse wants to do and how NC State is going to attack them, check out the in-depth scouting piece we posted yesterday.