NC State Wolfpack vs. Boston College Eagles
Time: 7:30 PM
Location: Chestnut Hill, MA
Line: State -3
Boston College are, like State and Wake Forest, dark horse candidates that have now definitively made it known they want a chance at an ACC Championship. Both are coming off grueling games and bye weeks. State with a back and forth win with LA Tech, the Eagles and low scoring loss at Clemson. There’s multiple ways this game could go, all depends on who would like to show up heading out of an extra week of rest.
The Eagles started their season 4-0 before that Clemson loss. The first three games? Cupcakes City. Blowouts of Colgate, UMass and Temple, although two of the three were at least on the road. A thrilling overtime win over Mizzou, put them back in the spotlight.
Quarterback Phil Jurkovec started the season as a player to watch, but with injury, back up Dennis Grosel has struggled to find his groove. Floating around 60% completions and a split 4-4 TD to INT ratio, he likes to run. Running back, Pat Garwo III, has a body like Person but stats similar to Knight. If this BC offense is to be competitive, they rely on buying Grosel time and committing to the ground game early (sound like anyone we know?). If this turns into a game of catchup for the Eagles, it’ll lean heavily in State’s favor.
BC’s defense is decent, but with a balanced attack, State should find opportunities to exploit. They tend to struggle to get into the backfield, but have the secondary support to cause turnovers. In fact, State and BC are tied with seven total sacks on the year, although State has steadily been improving in that area.
Keys to Winning for the Wolfpack
- Who gets running first? – Both teams rely on the ground game to set the tone for the offense. While State has been using it to wear down opponents, leading to deep threat chances with their loaded receiver core, BC is just trying to keep teams honest and allow Grosel time. State should have a big advantage on both sides of the ball. Their defense has been sound against the run, while Knight and Person have done all they could, both catching and running. Leaving the LA Tech game, Knight didn’t look 100%, hopefully the rest has the backfield duo ready to feast.
- Capitalize on Turnovers – Both BC and Leary are going to put out opportunities for turnovers. This game within the game, is going to be massive tonight. Eagles have 6 INTs to State’s 7. Both teams attack to the ball carrier and have had moments on tape that shine defensively. Last time State was on the road, they didn’t handle themselves well in doing the little things right, can’t happen again.
- Start Fast – Simply put, don’t let BC and that night crowd get into this. Work through your progressions, get a balance attack rolling on offense and absolutely fly on defense. When State has struggled most, is when they overthink, instead of do. Eagles are a solid team, but State should be able to take care of business, if they take care of THEIR business.
This has a feeling of the first half being brutal to watch. Both teams showing rust and overcommitting and underdelivering. The over/under is 51 and can’t help but feel the under is the right way to go.
In the end, State has the better offense and defense. BC has the home crowd and a chance to step up in the Atlantic. Wolfpack win another close one, full of heart attacks and worry.
Wolfpack wins 27-23.
NC State’s Kevin Concepcion Earns Week 4 ACC Rookie of the Week Honors
NC State True Freshman Kevin Concepcion earned Week 4 ACC Rookie of the Week honors for his performance against UVA.
ROOKIE – Kevin Concepcion, NC State, WR, Charlotte, N.C.
Concepcion totaled 116 receiving yards on six catches in NC State’s 24-21 road victory over Virginia in the two teams’ ACC opener. The true freshman wideout averaged 19.3 yards per catch and scored two touchdowns, including a 48-yard catch and run. The first true freshman receiver to start the first four games of the season for the Wolfpack since 2014 (Bo Hines), Concepcion has accounted for 27 percent of the Wolfpack’s receptions this season. (TheACC)
NC State is a 3-Point Underdog vs. Louisville
NC State is currently a 3-point underdog heading into their Friday night matchup against Louisville, and the Total is sitting at 55.
- Louisville is 2-2 Against the Spread
- NC State is 0-4 Against the Spread
- The Total has gone Over in 3 of Louisville’s 4 games.
- The Total has gone Under in 3 of NC State’s 4 games.
- The Total has gone Under in 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams.
- The Cardinals have won 6 of the last 10 straight Up against the Wolfpack.
- In those 10 matchups, NC State has beat the Spread 5 times.
- Louisville is 6-1 Straight Up in their last 7 games against ACC opponents.
- NC State is 2-8 Against the Spread against ACC opponents in their last 10 games.
- NC State has been the underdog against Louisville in 3 of the last 5 games.
NC State’s Highest & Lowest Graded Defensive Players vs. UVA
Here’s a look at which NC State Defensive players graded out the best and worst according to ProFootballFocus against UVA last night.
LB Payton Wilson – 83.4
DE Davin Vann – 74.7
S Bishop Fitzgerald – 73.7
DE Savion Jackson – 73.5
LB Caden Fordham – 63.1
DE Noah Potter – 45.7
CB Shyheim Battle – 48.0
LB Jaylon Scott – 55.2
DE Red Hibbler – 56.3
S Cecil Powell – 56.7
- Payton Wilson has now graded out at 80+ for 2 straight games, which he has never done in his career.
- He has been in the Top 5 in 3 of the first 4 games.
- He had the highest run defense grade: 90.4.
- He also had the highest grade in pass rush: 72.8.
- Davin Vann has been in the Top 5 in all 4 games in 2023.
- Bishop Fitzgerald has been in the Top 5 in 2 of the first 4 games.
- He had the highest grade in pass coverage: 77.5.
- Caden Fordham has been in the Top 5 in 2 of the first 4 games.
- Noah Potter has been in the Bottom 5 in 3 of the first 4 games.
- It’s his 2nd time posting the worst grade.
- Shyheim Battle has been in the Bottom 5 in 2 of the first 4 games.
- He did have the highest tackling grade: 81.1.
- Jaylon Scott has been in the Bottom 5 in 2 of the first 4 games.
- Red Hibbler has been in the Bottom 5 in 2 of the first 4 games.
- Safety Sean Brown had the lowest grader in coverage: 41.9.
- Noah Potter, Davin Vann and CJ Clark had the worst tackling grades: 18.4, 23.1, 26.3.
NC State’s Highest & Lowest Graded Offensive Players vs. UVA
Here’s a look at which NC State Offensive players graded out the best and worst according to ProFootballFocus against UVA last night.
IWR Kevin Concepcion – 80.9 – career high
QB Brennan Armstrong – 72.3
C Lyndon Cooper – 66.0
LT Anthony Belton – 64.6
WR Bradley Rozner – 63.9
IWR Juice Vereen – 41.7 – career low
WR Keyon Lesane – 53.1
WR Julian Gray – 54.2 – 2nd lowest of career
TE Trent Pennix – 54.5
RB Michael Allen – 56.0
- Concepcion caught 6 passes for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns, and was targeted a team high 10 times.
- Brennan Armstrong has graded out in the Top-5 in 3 of the first 4 games.
- He posted a rushing grade of 77.5, which was tops on the team, and his best since Week 9 of the 2021 season.
- Juice Vereen has been the lowest graded player on the team two weeks in a row.
- Anthony Belton has been in the Top-5 in 3 of the first 4 games.
- Julian Gray has been in the Bottom 5 in 2 of the firsts 4 games.
- Anthony Belton had the highest pass block grade: 83.7.
- RB Michael Allen has to improve at pass protection. His pass protection grade was 31.6.
- Give Julian Gray credit…he had the highest run blocking grade on the team in 22 snaps: 74.3