NC State takes on Purdue today at 2 pm in a game where the Boilermakers are favored by 13.5. While you should never doubt a Vegas line, we wanted to take a closer look at how these teams stack up against each other using Ken Pom’s 4 Factors.
Effective FG% Offense
Purdue – 60.4 (2nd in the nation)
NC State- 47.4
Effective FG% Defense
Purdue – 46.5
NC State- 49.6
Turnover % on offense
Purdue – 18.3
NC State- 14.2 (13th in the nation)
Turnover % forced
Purdue- 16.1
NC State- 19.3
Offensive rebounding %
Purdue – 39.6 (8th in the nation)
NC State- 32.7
Offensive rebounding % Allowed
Purdue – 22.1 (25th in the nation)
NC State-31.7
FT Rate Offense
Purdue – 39.7 (21st in the nation)
NC State- 39.1 (25th in the nation)
FT Rate Allowed
Purdue – 20.7 (16th in the nation)
NC State- 25
The Takeaways
Based on the 4 factors, things aren’t looking great for the Pack. Purdue’s offensive efficiency is off the charts, but both teams’ defensive efficiency is pretty similar. NC State will win the turnover battle (so says the stats), but Purdue will murder the Pack on the boards, especially the offensive glass. The Boilermakers and Wolfpack will get to the line at about the same rate, but Purdue won’t put NC State on the line as much as State will put them on the line.
The point is, at the end of the day, NC State is going to need to drastically overproduce their averages if they want to beat #1 Purdue in this one.
Proud of our effort, we had our chances and it does to show how a few errors can make or break a game. Refs didn’t help any in OT.
Not only was there goaltending on Seabron, there was also a body contact foul that wasn’t called. Could have been a 3 pt play and a difference maker.
Leading at the half. And if we didn’t have so many turnovers, we’d possibly have a decent working margin.
Is this is how Bethune Cookman felt going into the State game? With two big men on scholarship but not available, and two guards playing with injuries, I doubt we can stay within striking distance, much less have a chance to win at the end. I would love to be proven wrong. Maybe if we get 20 steals…….
Shooting 50% from 3PT like Rutgers did would be helpful, as well.
So I was absolutely WRONG! Every time I think this team has finally quelled my unrealistic optimism, these guys play their hearts out. Proud of them Shame on me
This one is going to get ugly early. I’m betting Painter has already told his guys to go inside and keep going inside until we prove we can stop them. I predict career days for their bigs, Ebe will foul out early and Ross and Gibson have already fouled out, down big at the half, in March we’ll call this the worst loss of the season.
I’m already hiding under the bed. I just hope we don’t get anyone else injured.