I hated to hear that Ricky Person was leaving NC State after the season to enter the NFL Draft. I hated it, but I understand it.
While having two high-caliber RBs in your backfield is ideal if you’re Dave Doeren, it’s not the perfect situation for a kid who is looking to pile up the stats and improve their draft stock. Had Person and Knight both decided to stay, they would once again be the 1-2 combo we’ve come to know and love. But these kids both have pro futures and if you’re not going after any records, or looking at an increase in volume, you have to start looking at your future in the NFL.
Person is a RS junior, so he’s played 4 seasons at NC State. Over the past two seasons, he’s rushed for 1279 yards, averaging 4.5 ypc. Given that he’s in his 4th college season, and that he was likely going to come back to the same situation he’s been in the past few years, it made a lot of sense for him to cash in and go pro despite being listed as the 36th best RB in his class.
This left NC State with Bam Knight locked into the starting RB role. Finally, he’d have the chance to be a featured back, rack up some big numbers, and become a household name in NFL Draft Circles.
The only problem? He may not need those big numbers to elevate his draft status.
According to projections, Bam Knight could actually be the 8th running back off the board. See, NFL scouts don’t necessarily need big numbers to justify an early pick these days. They have deep analytics, and the ability to see that it was simply situational as to why Knight hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season.
Despite splitting carries pretty evenly the past two seasons, Knight has been the better back on the ground. In his 3 seasons at NC State, he’s been extremely consistent. He’s been between 745 and 788 yards in every season at NC State. He’s averaged right at about 5.5 ypc every year, and he’s even turned out to be an elite kick returner.
So the truth is, initially I was pretty sure that the exodus of Person would convince Knight to stay, after examining the numbers and looking at the projections, I’m leaning on him leaving.
Let’s look at the pros and cons of staying one more season at NC State.
Pros
- He gets to finally be a featured back, be showcased, and move himself up the draft board
- He has the opportunity to put up big-time numbers while playing for what may be a Top 10 team that will contend for the ACC championship.
- He could get a lot of national attention and potentially make a run at Heisman.
Cons
- He could end up playing more snaps, getting worn down, and have a dip in his numbers
- He could get hurt and create questions for NFL teams looking to draft him
There are probably more Pros than Cons, but the potential cost of coming back may outweigh the benefits.
Is a great season going to move you up that much? If you have a great season, you could potentially move into the Top 5. It’s only a few spots, but it could be a difference of millions of dollars. Are those millions worth the risk of injury and potentially getting nothing? It depends. How much do you believe in yourself? How much are you willing to tempt fate? What are your goals?
Knight, if given the full load, COULD be a top 3 running back in the 2023 draft. Heck, he could statistically be the best in the country if he gets the volume and has a huge season.
Look at Isaiah Spiller (Texas A&M), who many believe is going to be the first RB off the board in 2023. He went for 1,011 yards this past season and averaged 5.8 YPC.
Look at Jahmyr Gibbs (Georgia Tech), who is poised to be the 2nd back off the board in 2023. He went for just 746 yards at 5.2 YPC this past season.
After that, you have guys who NFL scouts are liking, but haven’t really broken out yet. For instance, Kendall Milton (Georgia). He was in a crowded backfield, went for just 243 yards on 5 YPC. Or TCU’s Zach Evans, who has gone for over 600 yards in each of his first two seasons, and has averaged over 7 YPC both times.
Now, project Knight’s 2021 season, if he kept the same output but never shared carries with Person. He would have put up over 1,500 yards with 5.5 YPC. Obviously, there’s no situation where he would have carried the ball that many times, but you get the idea. Knight, statistically could, and arguably should, end up as a Top 3 back (statistically) if he returns as the featured back.
So it really comes down to whether or not Knight wants to take that gamble.
Last year, Najee Harris was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 24 and signed a contract worth about $13.047 million, including a signing bonus of around $6.849 million.
The 8th back off the board (4th round) in 2021 was Chuba Hubbard from Oklahoma State. He was drafted by the Panthers and signed a 4 year, $4,193,174 contract, including a $713,174 signing bonus.
So if Knight is actually the 8th back off the board, he’s looking at about $4 million.
If he stays, puts up huge numbers, and can move himself into the first or second round, he can get that Travis Etienne (2nd back off the board, 1st round) or Javonte Williams money (3rd back off the board, 2nd round). Etienne got over $12 million and Williams got $8.8 million.
So there is your equation, monetized.
If Knight decides to stay, he’s going all-in. If he wins the bet, he can make upwards of an extra $4-8 million on top of the $3 or 4 million he’s currently likely to get. If he cashes out now, he forfeits that money, takes his $3-4 million, hopes he stays healthy, and gets in a good situation, and makes that extra money on the back end in a 2nd contract.
If he stays, he has more control. He knows the system. He knows he’ll get volume. All he has to do is produce as he has been, and he cashes in big. But an injury or a down season are the risks.
If he leaves, he’s playing it safe, taking his few million and assuming the risks that come along with rookie RBs trying to get to that 2nd contract, which is no guarantee.
So as you can see, this is a tough decision for Knight when you look at it from his perspective and account for the financials.
Is NC State’s potential for a big season and an ACC Championship going to play a role in his decision? The better they are, the more TV time they get, the more hype they accumulate, the bigger stage Bam Knight gets to perform on.
At the end of the day, it all comes down to whether Knight is a betting man or not, and as a selfish Wolfpack fan, I hope he is.
