Dereon Seabron is going to the NBA. The only question is, will it be next year?
Dereon Seabron is a new name for a lot of NBA Draft junkies, but NC State fans saw this coming.
Actually, that’d be a lie. You didn’t see this coming. We didn’t either. Nobody did.
Seabron committed to NC State as a mostly unknown 3-star prospect out of Norfolk, VA. His only other offers were from ECU, Minnesota, Providence, and VCU. Upon arriving at NC State he was redshirted (academic redshirt). The first time NC State fans got to see him play was last season’s opener against Charleston Southern. It was a mostly uneventful debut where he logged 15 minutes and scored 6 points. He played sparingly and had some decent moments, but most of last year he looked like he was still trying to figure things out. He was was a little hesitant on his drives, and rarely attempted an outside shot. What stood out to most NC State fans is how dangerous he could be on the break.
Then in late February, with NC State struggling (losing 7 of their last 9), Keatts made a change. Seabron started to get minutes.
On February 20th against Wake Forest, he logged 33 minutes, led the team with 13 points, and grabbed 9 rebounds. This got Wolfpack fans’ attention.
He struggled over the next two games, but then he gave us another taste. On March 3rd, in a must-win game for NC State, Seabron went for 17 points and 13 boards, notching his first double-double. Then in the first round ACC tournament loss, he went for 11 and 8.
Coming into this season, Seabron was expected to be a contributor. But one of the best players in the ACC? Not a chance.
Then games started and Dereon Seabron just looked different. He was bigger, stronger, he looked sure of himself, but the biggest thing is that over the offseason, he learned to play a lot more physical.
Seabron was always extremely fast, took huge strides, moved well laterally, and had a good handle. But the question was; If he can’t shoot, aren’t teams just going to sag off and mob him if he tries to force it into the lane?
Yep, that’s what they are doing, but Seabron has become a bully. He is driving with purpose and demanding defenders step up and get set. He’s inviting contact, not getting bumped off his line, and protecting the basketball like a running back (or at times cuffing it) hiding the ball from defender’s swipes. What we’re also seeing is that when he gets through the initial contact, he’s using elite-level footwork to slither around help-side defenders and get to the rim.
Seabron is also changing speeds on his drive. His initial attack is as if he’s shot out of a cannon, but he’s able to stop on a dime or shift down as he’s taking his continuation steps, which settle him as he goes to finish.
The thing is, we didn’t see most of that last year. Seabron has enhanced nearly every aspect of his game this offseason, which is amazing. Overall of my years watching NC State only Manny Bates has such a drastic change in a single off-season. (Note: Both were under Kevin Keatts). Seabron had simply decided he wasn’t going to let the league dictate the type of player he would become, he made the decision.
Now, 15 games into the season, Dereon Seabron is likely one of the leading candidates for ACC Player of the Year. He’s 3rd in the ACC in scoring. He’s leading the league in rebounds per game. He’s 9th in FG%, 1st in free throws attempted, 2nd in free throws made, 13th in assists per game, and 12th in steals. He’s quite literally doing it all.
While those types of stats have NC State fans buzzing, they also have NBA scouts starting to pay close attention.
Just yesterday, Jonathan Wasserman, formally of NBADraft.net, and now the head of scouting and NBA Draft Analysis for Buzzfeed just moved Seabron into the first round of his 2022 NBA mock draft.
Seabron in the first 👀 A quick rise https://t.co/JSkTSRvlKh
— Hunter Cruse (@HunterCruse14) January 5, 2022
Wasserman has Seabron just sneaking in, going 28th overall to the Jazz.
Now, this is just one projection. Most draft boards don’t have Seabron on them just yet, but if he keeps this up, that might change.
However, it’s not likely that Seabron gets into lottery pick range unless he starts to really showcase his range from 3. Which actually might be starting to happen.
Seabron started the season just 1-16 from long range (6%), but since then he’s heated up. Actually, over the past 5 games, Seabron is 4-8 from 3pt range (50%).
That said, I think at this point, Seabron isn’t quite confident enough in his 3 to put up the volume that NBA scouts would want to see, but I do think they are intrigued by his talent. I do think if he keeps this up he’d be a mid to late 1st round pick in 2022.
Usually, that would be enough for a guy to leave college and go pro. But I’m not so sure with Seabron, and I say that because I think his move to point guard has changed everything. Looking at the write-ups from NBA scouts, they seemed to view Seabron as how he was being used, as a wing or a slasher.
Now, Seabron will likely be seen as more of a project guy at the 2 or 3 if he’s selected in 2022. They’ll want to refine his jumper and bulk him up a bit. Will that work out? You never know, and that’s why I think teams are likely to pass on him early in the draft and why there is a chance he’d slide into the second round.
But Dereon Seabron has lottery pick potential. He’s got lottery pick speed, lottery pick size, lottery pick physicality, and lottery pick finishing ability. If Seabron goes pro after this year, I wouldn’t blame him, but I also believe he’d be leaving a lot of money on the table. With another off-season like the one he just had, he could hone his jumper and continue to get more and more experience at the point. All he has to do is start hitting shots from outside, making smart reads on his drives, and be a little more vocal with his leadership, and there’s no doubt in my mind this kid is a top 10 pick in 2023.
And what’s the difference between lottery pick and 2nd round money. Eh, only $15 million guaranteed.
So yeah, it’s a little early to be having this conversation. We’re just 15 games into the season, but it’s dumb to act like the NBA buzz around Seabron isn’t picking up. What’s the point in ignoring it? It’s great for NC State, it’s great for Dereon Seabron and it’s great for Kevin Keatts (who took a 3-star kid and turned him into an NBA prospect). The only people who want to put their fingers in their ears about this topic are NC State fans who don’t want to see the kid go (I don’t blame them either).
So what will Seabron do? Will he keep up the pace he’s on? (I think he will.) Will NBA scouts start becoming regulars at NC State games? (I think they will). Will this be Seabron’s last season with the Pack? (Well, that’s the $15 million question, isn’t it.)
NC State Basketball
Wolferetti: NC State Basketball Off-Season Predictions
NC State’s season is over, but you don’t have to wait until November to get excited about basketball again. With the new NIL rules and the transfer portal open, college basketball’s off-season is a season all in itself. Let’s just right in and talk about what I see NC State focusing on this offseason (Note that Jarkell Joiner is definitely gone, having used up all his eligability.
DJ Burns: I predict the big man comes back. He’s hinted at wanting to come back, I’m sure the NIL money is going to be nice, and he’s likely going to be NC State’s go-to guy on offense. If Burns wants to play in the NBA one day he needs to come into next season below 300 lbs. I think that’s important because he’s got a skill set that can make him some money to play professionally, but he needs to expand his range and get a little more nimble in his face-up game. He’s quick and has good footwork, but he’s lugging around 30 extra pounds with every move he makes. If Burns can shed fat and build some serious muscle this offseason, he’ll have the opportunity to be an ACC POY candidate.
Dusan Mahorcic: The big man missed most of this season (over 70%) with a knee injury, which means he’s very likely going to be awarded a medical waiver to play another season. I’m hearing that Mahorcic is interested in playing another season at NC State, but his knee has yet to bounce back to playing shape. I think this is something to monitor this off-season. If he’s healthy, it seems like he’ll be back, logging some minutes with or behind Burns. If he’s not 100% by season time then I’m not sure how the staff will play it. I think it’s safe to say that Mahorcic’s best bet is trying to play next year at NC State, and if he can get back to full strength, I think that happens one way or another.
Casey Morsell: Morsell has another season and I’m hearing different things about Morsell. Most expect him to return, get a nice NIL payout and try to have a successful season where he’s a little more involved offensively. That said, he wants to showcase that he can be a much more capable scorer and with Smith and Joiner dominating the shots this year, he only got a small taste of that. I think Morsell comes back, however, I think before he makes his final decision he wants to see how the roster plays out. Say Terquavion Smith comes back and Keatts adds another ball-dominant PG. There’s a chance Morsell stays, but I’d actually guess that he looks elsewhere, be it transfer or pro ball. I don’t think Morsell wants to come back and be the 3rd option again. I think he wants to come back and be option 2A or 2B and I think he can. Morsell is a key piece to this team’s success. An elite defender who can shoot 40%+ from long range is very, very hard to find and it would be smart for Keatts to focus on bringing in a PG who is more interested in getting his teammates involved. That said, I am nearly certain Morsell will stay another season.
Terquavion Smith: I’m 85% sure Smith is gone. The way he ended the season is fresh in the minds of NBA scouts. He showcased what he’s capable of and in a class with pretty weak guard play, Smith is one of the best all-around 2 guards out there. Now, sure, there is a chance that scouts drop him down to 2nd round status because of his lower shooting percentages this year, and it might make Smith question whether coming back and improving on those gets him the big bonus of the first round picks, but I’m not going to hold my breath. Smith escaped having his career ended with that foul against UNC, and he improved on almost all his numbers outside of shooting percentage. I think his shooting and scoring is the least of scout’s worries, so I think he’ll be a late 1st rounder and I think he’ll be gone. If I was him, I’d be cashing in while I could for sure.
Jack Clark: I’d assume Jack Clark comes back, but you never know. He’s got a lot to prove and with the injuries this season, he never really got into a rhythm. I also think one more year to hone his 3 would be good for him. He’s got the skill set to really be a factor in a Keatts offense, and I think he’d play a key role if he returned. That said, I’ve heard that of some teams (one in particular) that Clark might leave for. I’m taking that with a grain of salt because Clark has a secure starting role next season. But crazier things have happened, that said, when all is said and done, I’d expect Clark back.
Greg Gantt: Gantt was a quality add by Keatts and this year we finally got to see how important he was. He was the muscle at the 4. Clark, while I really like him, can get soft at times. Gantt was a great matchup for opposing 4s who were more physical. In the ACC you need both of these guys. Sometimes you get a versatile 4 and sometimes you get a beefy, strong 4. Gantt allowed NC State to at least compete with the beefy 4s. However, I’m not so sure Keatts won’t go out and get a big, strong 4 with a little more offense than Gantt. With Gantt’s injury past and coming off a knee injury, I don’t think the staff will leave it up to chance. I’m not sure what happens to Gantt. I think he’ll probably return, get healthy, and try to work his way into minutes next season regardless of who Keatts brings in.
Ernest Ross: I think Ross’ future depends mostly on who Keatts brings in with the portal. If he does go out and bring in another 4 man and Clark stays, then I’d assume the logjam entices Ross or Gantt or Ross and Gantt to look around at other options. However, if Keatts feels secure with the frontcourt and focuses more on guards (or if Clark or Gantt were to leave) then I’d bet on Ross staying. Ross has an upside that we haven’t seen yet. You saw it in spurts this year. When his confidence gets going, he becomes a real factor. Is that sustainable for him? I don’t know, I hope. But I’d say Ross is inclined to stay, but I’ll have to see what plays out at the log jammed 4 spot.
Breon Pass / LJ Thomas: There is no doubt that Keatts is going to be looking for guards in the portal this season. Pass provided some good minutes late, and honestly, LJ Thomas impressed nearly every time he was on the floor. But Pass hasn’t really shown that he can be a lead guard at the ACC level just yet and I’m afraid that if Keatts brings in a seasoned veteran at the point, Pass won’t be all that interested in playing backup during his junior year. As for Thomas, it’s interesting to me that Keatts didn’t give him more opportunities. He showed the ability to score it and was a pretty physical defender. I’m really hoping Thomas sticks around for another season, as I can see him being a factor at this level with more minutes under his belt. Thomas is a sophomore, so I think he’ll be more apt to play a role coming off the bench for Keatts, so if Keatts brings in a seasoned 2 guard, I’m going to bet Thomas sticks it out and plays behind him, pushing him and potentially breaking in to get more minutes as the season progresses.
Ebe Dowuona: As you’ve likely heard, Dowuona is leaving. He entered the portal, meaning that it was likely Burns and Mahorcic are coming back and Dowuona would be 3rd string yet again. As much as I liked Ebe’s passion and energy, I think NC State can find an upgrade in the portal if they want to get some depth behind Burns and Mahrocic. In fact, this is why I think they’ll be focusing on a 4/5 guy. What I mean by that is, a guy who can play both the 4 or the 5. A more versatile center with some meat on his bones. Someone physical, but also able to stretch the defense to the perimeter at times. This gives you that guy who can bang with bigger teams, and it also gives you depth at the center if the unthinkable happens.
Isaiah Miranda: The 7-foot forward joined the Wolfpack mid-season and some believed he would immediately get playing time seeing as he was a potential to jump straight to the NBA. Turns out, he had a lot of work to do. He needed to mature physically and he needed to get used to a lot more contact in the college game. He never saw the floor this year, so I’m not sure what to expect next season. Will he be ready? If the answer is yes, then State will be super deep at the 4 spot. If not, then I’m not sure what the move is going to be. In today’s game you can’t just wait around for guys to get it. Heck if you do, they might leave when they finally are ready, and you need every spot you can get for depth purposes. I don’t know how to look at this situation with Miranda. I’m guessing he’ll be here next season, but that is pure speculation.
What will State look to add: If Smith is gone (which I think he is), and Ebe is gone (he is), they’ll be super focused on bringing in both a PG, a volume-scoring SG and a 4/5 guytrue. The guard positions are actually 2 positions that I don’t think they’ll have trouble filling with Keatts’s style of play. All these guys would have to look at is how Joiner or Smith was used and the fact that they have an elite big man and a really great spot-up shooter on the wing, and what more could you want? Plus you’re in the ACC playing for a team coming off an NCAA Tourny bid.
The question is, if you have a good group to choose from, what do you prioritize? I think you go out and find the best scoring guard you can find that can play on or off the ball. That’s your replacement for Terquavion Smith. However, I think at the PG spot you need to be a bit pickier. Joiner was great, but he and Smith’s games were just too similar. If you’re going to have a volume shooting 2 guard, then you need a PG who is a willing distributor. Joiner wasn’t really great at that. In fact, I think Markell Johnson would have been the perfect fit for this past years’ team. Keatts almost had to force Markell to become a scorer, He was a guy who could score when he needed to but was more comfortable finding an open man and making a play for his teammates. Thats the kind of player I think would fit best with this team and I think that’s a skill set that will be out there to be had.
If I’m Keatts I’m targeting a PG with a high 3pt %, someone who can read the pick and roll and make plays off of it, not necessarily be the #1 scoring option off of it. I think a kid that is more of a disrupter on offense would fit great in this offense. A one-dimensional scoring PG, IMO, isn’t ideal and is really what makes the offense so stagnant at times.
So my thought is that you get a volume-scoring SG with range who can give you 12-15 ppg, a PG who can average 8-1o ppg and 4-5 assists per game, and a big, physical 4 man who can give you 7 ppg and 5 rebounds per game.
Who is out there?
This is a good question and one we’ll be updating here shortly. We’ll start focusing in on guys who fit this mold and have some sort of NC State connection. Obviously, those would be the first calls since there are prior relationships, but there’s also a possibility to bring in guys who have no connection and simply see NC State as their best opportunity…which is something that is easier to envision this year than it was last year.
What about the incoming freshmen?
NC State has 2 incoming freshmen in Trey Parker (SG) and Dennis Parker Jr (SF). Trey is a kid who I can see coming in and playing a role for NC State. The guy really is an elite athlete who can score at all 3 levels. He reminds me a lot of Terquavion Smith. He’s not a shy shooter and can get red hot from long-range. He’s had some HS games this season where he hit 5 or 6 3s and he’s also had a few where he went 2-9 or 0-5. So yeah, think Terquavion Smith. Now he’s not as slippery as Smith on the drive, but he’s more physical and is probably the best dunker in HS basketball. He’ll play next season and may even force his way into getting major minutes if he acclimates to ACC play fast enough.
As for Dennis Parker, he’s a guy who is super versatile. He’s a tweener at 6-6 but he’s a guy who can slot in at the 3, play a little 2 if needed but also the 4 in a pinch. He’s a kid that plays with no fear. He’s a good shooter, but he’s even better at driving to the rim. He’s physical, invites contact, and is a pretty nasty dunker as well. He’s a great defender and he’s super smart. He’s kind of like Casey Morsell, except that I’d say Morsell is more of a guard as a 3 man and Parker would be more of forward at the 3 position. Dennis Parker Jr may have more competition for minutes, but I expect him to get some playing time this season as well.
At the end of the day, a lot of this is going to be fluid. Maybe more guys leave than expected, maybe less. Those decisions will dictate what the roster needs and what Keatts prioritizes. We’ll be keep tabs on the portal over the next few weeks/months and will keep you updated.
NC State Basketball
Wolferetti: 3 reasons why NC State is going to win today
God bless these guys over here at PI. I submitted this article to them this morning and got this back.
“Joey, this is a good piece, but are you sure you want to come out and say that NC State is going to win? Why not just do a ‘keys to the game.’ or something? Hedge your bets. Why are you always wanting to put your reputation on the line?”
To that I say, “Nah, I’m good. I want my reputation on the line. What fun is this if I’m not callin’ it like I see it?”
Look, they’ve been worried about me stating outlandish opinions before. Like when I said after game #1, after I first laid eye on this team, that it was going to be a team that will flirt with or get into the Top 25? I got hammered for that, but was I right? And today I’m back on my prediction tip, telling you that NC State will survive and advance. And here are my 3 reasons why.
1. Creighton hasn’t fared well against teams with great Turnover Margins.
If Creighton has a glaring weakness, it’s turnover margin.
NC State’s turnover margin ranks 16th in the NCAA. Creighton’s is a miserable 291st. This means Creighton turns the ball over a lot and doesn’t create many turnovers. Meanwhile, NC State is the exact opposite. They create a lot of turnovers and really protect the basketball. This statistic right here is going to play a major role. The Creighton guards, especially Nembhard, can get sped up, and when they do, they can get sloppy and out of control. Meanwhile, Joiner and Smith flourish at top speed.
Let’s look at the one team that Creighton lost to every time they played them (and played them multiple times). That team is Marquette.
What do Marquette and NC State have in common? Well, they are both Top 20 in the nation in Turnover Margin. Marquette ranks #3 in the NCAA while the Pack is 16th. Creighton turned it over 18 times in their first meeting at Marquette. The second time these two teams met, Creighton turned it over 15 times.
The other teams they faced in the Top 50 of Turnover Margin in the nation?
#39 Arizona State
That’s it. And guess what, Creighton lost every single one of those games. They have yet to beat a team in the Top 50 in Turnover Margin.
Reminder. NC State ranks 16th.
2. Large, back-to-the-basket bigs have fared well against Creighton
6’9, 245lb, Adama Sanogo from UConn dropped 17 against them in a win.
6’9, 215lb, Oso Ighodaro from Marquette dropped 16 on them in their first meeting, and then 18 in their second.
6’7, 220lb, Bryce Hopkins from Providence scored 20 on them in both meetings. One of which was a win.
All of these guys are big, strong, back-to-the-basket bigs and all of them bullied their way to huge games again Creighton.
In all 3 instances, Creighton refused to double-team on most possessions and the big men ate. So how will they deal with a big that is bigger than any of these guys?
DJ Burns is 6’9, 275lbs and he’s going to be a focal point for NC State in this game. If Creighton opts to play Burns straight up, history says they are going to have a long night and Burn is going to have a big game.
3. Creighton hasn’t seen guards like Joiner and Smith
Sure Creighton has quick guards. Nembhard, the 6’0 PG rarely gets a matchup where he doesn’t have a quickness advantage. Today, against Joiner, he won’t have one. There is so much talk about Creighton’s guards bottling up their opponents, but watch them play and you’ll see that they simply haven’t had to face guys like Joiner or Smith. Creighton will allow the floor to be spread and will not fight against playing this game at a fast pace, and those are the types of games we’ve seen the NC State guards feast.
Creighton is a very good team. They have some very good pieces, but I just think they’ve found themselves in a matchup that isn’t very good for them despite being data-darlings. I could be wrong, but to me, this looks like a game where people are reading off statistics and making assumptions without watching film. Without looking at each team’s Achilles heel. And without really breaking down the matchups.
I think this is a really good matchup for the Pack and I think I’ll be back talking to you in about 24 hours looking at who the guys will play on Sunday.
NC State Basketball
Wolferetti: UNC’s 39 FTs vs. NC State were the most they’ve shot in an ACC game since 2007 (in a game that had eerily similar stats and outcome)
I’m over on Sports-Reference.com digging through these Free Throw attempt numbers and I’m finding some pretty interesting nuggets.
I spent yesterday morning digging through NC State’s FTAs and FT disparity numbers, which I put together in this article I posted yesterday.
Today I started looking at UNC’s FTAs and FT disparity numbers. Sport-Reference only goes back to 2010 for game logs, but up until that point, I wasn’t finding another game where UNC shot as many or more FTs than they did on Saturday. Then I moved to ESPN, where I had to go box score by box score. Finally, in 2007 I found a game. It was #1 UNC vs. Virginia, in Chapel Hill, on January 10th.
So, since 2007, UNC has never attempted more than 38 FTs in an ACC game. That means UNC’s 39 FTs vs. NC State was the most since that game. Meaning, NC Stayed played the most physical ACC game against UNC in 15 years?
Look, I watched the game, and I’m just going to go ahead and say, that’s not the case. In fact, I thought NC State was a little softer than usual in this game. But that’s just an opinion, so go rewatch and make up your own mind.
Meanwhile, I’ll just point out a few things about that 2007 #1 UNC vs. Virginia game in Chapel Hill and show you that there were quite a few interesting parallels to Saturday’s game.
In 2007 vs UNC, Virginia shot 11 free throws.
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State shot 12 free throws.
In 2007 vs Virginia, the Heels shot 41 free throws.
On Saturday vs NC State, the Heels shot 39 free throws.
In 2007 the UNC / Virginia FT disparity was +30 for UNC
On Saturday the UNC / NC State FT disparity was +27 for UNC
In 2007 vs UNC, Virginia shot a better percentage from the floor than UNC (44% to 38%)
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State shot a better percentage from the floor than UNC (42% to 37%)
In 2007 vs. UNC, Virginia shot better from 3pt range than UNC (36% to 23%)
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State shot better from 3pt range than UNC (29% to 22%)
In 2007 vs. UNC, Virginia had more FGs in the game than UNC (26 to 25)
On Saturday vs UNC, NC State had more FGs in the game than UNC (26-20)
In 2007 UNC beat Virginia by 10 points (79-69)
On Saturday UNC beat NC State by 11 points (80-69)
This was a #1 ranked UNC team with Tyler Hansbrough (who happened to be at the game on Saturday) and Brandan Wright in the middle. They were 15-1 at the time with their only loss coming to Gonzaga. This Virginia game was their 2nd ACC game of the season. 24 of the FTs were shot by the two bigs, but the rest were spread out amongst the UNC guards, meaning this wasn’t just Hansbrough and Wright drawing contact. EVERYONE on UNC was drawing contact. Ellington, Lawson, Rashawn Terry, Quentin Thomas, and Danny Green shot the other 17.
Anyways, again, this doesn’t prove anything, but it is pretty peculiar. I was out here looking for FT totals in ACC play and couldn’t find one that was equal to or higher than the 39 from Saturday. And it just so happens that when I do find one (allll the way back in 2007), it’s also had the largest FT disparity we’ve seen by UNC in ACC play since Saturday. These crazy high (25+) FT disparity games don’t come often in the ACC for UNC, but when they come they seem to come on nights when they are shooting really low percentages from the floor.
Take from this what you will.
WOLFERETTI: Only 3 times in the Keatts era has an ACC team shot over 30 FTs with a positive double-digit disparity vs. NC State. All 3 times it’s been UNC.
This loss doesn’t sting, it stinks.
I’m not going to beat around the bush here. The refs were the primary reason NC State lost this game. What we watched wasn’t basketball, it was guys in striped shirts controlling an outcome.
Now, did they mean to do it? Did they get caught up in the UNC home crowd? Was there some kind of unconscious bias in play? Was it just a coincidence? Did NC State force their hand?
We’ll never know, but it seems par for the course if you’ve watched enough ACC basketball.
Think I’m being dramatic or making excuses? Judge for yourself.
UNC was 32-39 from the free-throw line. NC State was 12-12.
Yes, the Heels shot 27 more free throws than NC State last night.
You RARELY see a disparity in numbers like that in the ACC. I mean, sometimes you’ll get a game that is called super tight. In those games, you’d expect to see high Free Throw Attempt (FTA) totals for both teams. And sometimes you’ll get a game where the refs let you play, meaning you have low FTAs across the board. But I’ve never seen a conference game where on one side it’s called as extremely tight and on the other side they mostly just let the guys play. But that is exactly what happened last night. And if you somehow think that might be normal, I’ll take the time here to prove that it’s an EXTREME outlier.
Free Throw Attempt (FTA) Disparity in ACC games from NC State’s 2022-23 season to date
(+4) NC State 19 – Pitt 15
(-5) NC State 12 – Miami 17
(-3) NC State 21 – Louisville 24
(+6) NC State 18 – Clemson 24
(-11) NC State 15 – Duke 26*
(-4) NC State 21 – VT 25
(-2) NC State 20 – Miami 22
(+2) NC State 21 – GT 19
(-27) NC State 12 – UNC 39*
Yeah, you see it. 27 is by far the largest FTA disparity we’ve seen all season, and it’s not even close.
So why does that matter? Well, the more fouls that are called, the more referees control the pace, flow (and score) of the game.
See, the more fouls, the quicker the teams get into the bonus, and when teams are in the bonus, any foul is one that stops momentum, sends guys to the line for free shots, and thus, changes the score without offense or defense involved.
Now, I’m not saying ACC referees stack up the fouls in games in order to control the game, but what I am saying is that IF someone was going to try to control a basketball game from the referee’s position, this would pretty much be the way you’d do it. How do I know? Well, it’s one way they DID do it in the NBA according to former NBA referee Tim Donaghy who was caught by the FBI for fixing games. Don’t take it from me though, Operation Flagrant Foul (a documentary about the Donaghy saga is on Netflix right now).
Now look, before you lose your mind and accuse me of accusing ACC refs of cheating, that’s not what I’m saying. I’m explaining how games are controlled and I’m telling you that I only know that because a former ref explained it to the world. Now, after 30+ years of watching NC State basketball, I’m starting to wonder how it’s possible these unlikely things keep happening. Some people call it the Curse of Jimmy V. Some people call it NC State S#*t. Whatever you call it, you know what I’m talking about.
The main problem is, I’m not superstitious and it’s getting harder and harder for me to believe that no matter who the players are, no matter who the coaches are, no matter who the athletic director is, the same story continues to unfold with Wolfpack basketball.
So what is going on?
Last night was just another chapter is the story. NC State plays UNC, fouls somehow play a role, the game flow just doesn’t feel like the rest of the games we’ve watched, and then the Pack loses. Fans get pissed. Blame the refs. Rinse and repeat.
So I wondered if I looked closely at the numbers if I’d find any patterns or try to uncover any hints as to what is going on. Again, not saying anyone is cheating, but wondering if there are subconscious biases involved or something. And if I didn’t find anything then I was going to just jump on the superstition bandwagon and call it a day.
Anyways, here are a few things that stood out to me.
– I saw that State’s season-low of 12 FTAs is tied for the lowest in conference play this year for the Pack.
They DID have 2 games where they shot fewer, but they were not in conference play. Those were vs Austin Peay and vs. Elon. In those games, NC State shot a ton of 3s. 28 vs AP and 33 vs Elon. So I guess in those games you could argue that they were playing mostly on the perimeter and there wasn’t much contact happening on dribble drives or post-play. This doesn’t hold true vs. UNC. NC State played physical on both ends, They were going down to Burns while Smith and Joiner were attacking the basket quite a bit. NC State shot just 17 3s (least amount in a conference game this season) vs. UNC. The Pack wasn’t just hanging out around the perimeter hoisting up 3s. They were playing a very similar style to what UNC was playing (UNC shot 18 3s) So there goes the ‘different styles of play’ argument.
– I found out There is very rarely a +20 FTA disparity in the ACC.
In fact, in the Keatts era, there have been only 7 games with a FTA disparity of 15 or more on either side, and of those, only 2 have had a disparity of 20 or more. I listed them below…
15+ FTA Disparity game (NC State games – ACC) | 2021-22
(-27) NC State 12 – UNC 39 = Lost by 11
15+ FTA Disparity game (NC State games – ACC) | 2021-22
15+ FTA Disparity game (NC State games – ACC) | 2020-21
(+15) NC State 24 – Clemson 9 = Lost by 4
15+ FTA Disparity game (NC State games – ACC) | 2019-20
(-18) NC State 7 – UNC 25 = Lost by 10
(-18) NC State 13 @ UNC 31 = Lost by 6
15+ FTA Disparity game (NC State games – ACC) | 2018-19
(-19) NC State 9 @ Wake 28 = Lost by 3
(-22) NC State 7 @ Louisville 29 = Lost by 7
(-17) NC State 11 @ Duke 28 = Lost by 16
15+ FTA Disparity game (NC State games – ACC) | 2017-18
The only Pattern I could find here is that NC State lost all of these ‘high FT disparity games.’ It also may be worth noting that of the 7 ‘high disparity’ games, 5 of the 7 were Tobacco Road teams. And the last note here is that 5 of the ‘high disparity’ games FTA slants went against NC State and only once went for them. However, they even lost the one where they shot a ton more FTs.
– I found out that NC State rarely have games where one or both of the teams attempt 30 FTs in ACC play.
Actually, during the Keatts era only 7 times during ACC play has NC State played in a game where this occurred.
1 – Last night vs UNC (they shot 39 FTs)
2- In 2021 vs. Pitt (they shot 34 and NC State shot 30 FTs)
3. In 2020 vs UNC (They shot 31 FTs)
4. In 2019 vs Wake (They shot 30 FTs)
5. In 2019 vs FSU (They shot 30 FTs)
6. In 2019 vs UNC (They shot 37 FTs)
7. In 2018 vs Wake (They shot 31 FTs)
No real pattern here other than UNC being here 3 times, and again 5 of the 7 games are Tobacco Road teams.
– However, if you look at those 30 FT games again, and then look at the disparity of those FTs, here is what you find…
1. NC State 12 – UNC 39 (-27)
2. NC State 34 – Pitt 30 (-4)
3. NC State 13 – UNC 31 (-18)
4. NC State 30 – Wake 26 (+6)
5. NC State 21 – FSU 30 (-9)
6. NC State 24 – UNC 37 (-13)
7. NC State 31 – Wake 22 (+9)
The only time over the entire Keatts era (during ACC play) that you had a team with extraordinarily high Free Throw Attempts (FTAs) in a game AND a double-digit disparity in team FTAs was the 3 UNC games, one of which was last night.
Kind of interesting if you ask me. But not convinced of anything….
Then I went to see “What if this had happened in any other ACC game prior to last night for UNC.” I wanted to see if UNC just lived at the foul line all the time while their opponents weren’t able to get there. If so, maybe they just play a style of basketball that I was unaware existed. One where you’re able to be very physical on offense and get to the line, but able to play such good defense that you don’t allow your opponent to the line.
I mean, you could also just say they always get calls, but I’m trying to give them the benefit of the doubt.
However, what I found is that aside from the NC State game, their highest Free Throws Attempted (FTAs) in ACC play is 27 vs VT. And in almost every conference game this season, their FTA discrepancy has been around 3 to 5. Oh, but there was one other outlier other than the +27 from last night, which was a +16 vs. Georgia Tech (They shot 24 to GTs 8 FTs) and that game happened to be on the heels of their 4 game losing streak when the bottom was falling out and they NEEDED a win.
Interesting again, but at the end of the day, this proves nothing. Maybe NC State was just foul-happy last night and UNC wasn’t. Maybe despite a full roster of different players, the same thing tends to happen every couple of years, only when NC State takes on UNC. Maybe, these are just excuses and NC State really is just cursed.
Or maybe not.
While you’d love to see a player like this stick around, if he can get drafted he should go, and I think he will. Personally, I still worry a little about that jumper. However, you can really judge a shooter by his free throw shooting. Good shooters shoot them well because they know how to shoot. Last year he shot 57% from the line – not a shooter’s touch. This year, he’s clearly worked on his form and is up to 70%. And, as noted above, the 3PT shot is starting to fall after missing a boatload. That’s critical for… Read more »
Agreed. It will depend on where he’s supposed to be picked. Most have him mid to late 2nd rounder. Only one has him going 1st round. We’ll have to wait and see, but if he slides late into the second round, he should come back. He has a LOT to gain by developing a jumper….like $15 million.
Also of note. No mock drafts have Bates going in any round. He’s been pretty visible with the team. I wonder if he gives it one more go.
WOW!!! Bates coming back is an entirely new thought.
I can understand why the NBA might be a little nervous about him. How well will he heal? Three shoulder surgeries in five years makes you wonder if he can stand the physical nature of the league. And he really hasn’t had an opportunity to demonstrate much in the way of offense.
Another year might be a real difference maker in his pro prospects. Would that be crazy???