NC State is doing everything they can do. But, they just keep on losing.

I’m not going to spend a lot of time trying to pinpoint where the blame needs to land, because there are just too many variables right now. Recruiting, injuries, offense, defense, etc. They can all be explained to some extent, which is why you need to give Keatts another year, at least.

His recruiting has been hampered by the NCAA sanctions that were potentially hanging over his head. Those are gone. He’s had a bunch of injuries that have depleted his roster (Bates, Gant, Ross) that have turned his frontcourt into a ghost town. The play on the floor can be explained by these injuries.

Offensively NC State is a one-dimensional team. Their only real option is to rely on their guards to drive and make plays. There isn’t a big man you can play off of. Dowuona and Gibson are big bodies, but neither can score reliably from the block. Because of this, dumping it down to them doesn’t demand any attention from help side. And even if that help side came, neither are very good passers. But you have to have them on the floor to at least attempt to defend the opposing team’s big men.

So what do you do? Well, you pretty much do what NC State has been doing. Give it to Seabron and let him rip. At least he demands the defense to shift and help when he attacks. You can give it to Smith and see if he can get hot from 3. Aside from that, you don’t have much going for you.

Hellems has had a few good games, but with frontcourt focused on him, he hasn’t had success inside. He also hasn’t been as reliable a shooter as he was a year ago (he’s down 5% from the floor from last season). Morsell has been good, but he’s not a guy who’s going to create off the bounce. He needs teammates setting him up. Meanwhile, Cam Hayes can’t get anything to fall and continues to have momentum busting misses or turnovers.

Defensively, these guys have spent their entire careers at NC State being taught to play tight to the ball, and jump passes. They want to create chaos, but when you go for deflections and steals, you get out of position. This was a risk worth taking when you had the ACC’s best shot blocker waiting in the paint. Without Bates, all of those blowbys end up in baskets.

So last night, Keatts tried something I wanted to see a couple of weeks ago. In fact, I made the point in my postgame piece after the Carolina loss. Here’s what I said…

“The truth is, between ‘switching everything’ and picking up full court, the staff is putting these guys in vulnerable positions very often. Every position depends on guys picking up full court, then switching multiple times, while trying to remain ready to help if need be. That’s asking too much and it’s just not working in the ACC. If NC State was forcing 15 to 20 turnovers per game, then fine, but you’re taxing your kids with the press and the guys are always on their heels defensively, trying to keep up with the switches and help side. This is a defense that needs to not only have the perfect personnel, but it needs a deep bench and a veteran team used to playing with each other. This specific team has NONE of those. It’s time to scrap it. Go zone. Or stay man and hedge and recover on screens like most teams do. I’ve seen enough.”

Keatts finally went zone and you know what? It worked alright. He used a zone press and dropped back into zone for a majority of the game. NC State forced 12 turnovers using that defense. Over the 5 previous games, they averaged 11.6 turnovers forced. So, really you didn’t lose anything by going zone. You completely eliminated Jake LaRavia from the game. Wake’s second-leading scorer who came in averaging over 15 points, only scored 6, and Alonzo Williams, who is leading the ACC in scoring and assists only finished the first half with 2 points. Things unraveled in the second half, but he threw a wrinkle in, and gave State a chance. Problem is, the Pack shot just 32% from the floor and a miserable 13.6% from 3 point range. That said, NC State was tied with 2nd place Wake Forest with 9 minutes to play and was within a single bucket at the 5:13 mark.

Keatts has tried just about everything with this team. He’s moved Seabron to the point. He’s tried going small without a big. And now he’s changed his entire defensive strategy for a game. And while some things have worked at times, nothing is sticking. I’d never think I’d say this, but he’s almost run out of options.

With that being the case, I think it’s time to just hand PG duties over to Breon Pass for a game and see what happens. Go with Pass, Smith, Morsell, Seabron, and Gibson/Dowuona. Bring Hellems off the bench and play for next season.

Speaking of next season, if everyone comes back (Seabron, Smith, Bates) you’ll have a pretty talented core. But you still don’t have a true PG. Seabron has been your best option because he puts the most pressure on the defense, but it’s only because Hayes has gone missing and Pass was just a freshman. Next season, with Ross back, he’ll have the option of keeping Seabron at point. If he can develop a shot, then it’ll probably work out. If not, then NC State is going to be right back where they are this year.

That’s why it’s time to get Breon Pass ready. Hayes needs an offseason to find himself, and you hope he does, but you can’t bet on it. Pass is a true PG (something that Seabron and Hayes are not), was a 4-star recruit, and certainly has some upside. If you continue to play him like you are (1 minute vs. Wake) you’re stunting his growth. And what’s the point in doing that when he’s going to be a piece you’re forced to rely on next season no matter how you slice it.

In ACC play, Pass is shooting 40% from the floor. For the season, of the NC State guards, only Seabron and Terquavion Smith are shooting higher at 51% and 40.7% respectively.  Pass is also shooting 38% from 3 during ACC play. For the season, Casey Morsell is hitting 40% and Hellems is hitting 39%. So if Pass were given real minutes going forward, and the trend continued, he’d be amongst the better shooters on the team. Now couple that with the fact that during conference play he has a team-leading 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, and hey, you might have yourself a decent freshman PG.

This team isn’t making the NCAA tournament unless they go on a historic run and win the ACC Tournament. And I can’t see that happening with the current rotation. Maybe they squeak into the NIT, but even that is a long shot at this point. What isn’t a question, is the fact that Keatts will be on the hot seat next season and he’s going to have to produce.

It’s time to prep for next year, and as hard a pill that is to swallow, it’s beneficial to the returning players and to Keatts himself.

Start Pass at PG and give him 30+ minutes. See how he reacts. See what he can learn. Groom him, because if you don’t you’re betting your job on Seabron’s jumper and Cam Hayes’s confidence, two things that have been missing in action all year long.