NC State fans let out a collective sigh of relief when the Pack was announced as the 11 seed, matched up with the #6 seeded Creighton Blue Jays.

Now that we’ve all had time to celebrate the fact that NC State is dancing, it’s time to set our sights to our opponent.

Creighton: An Overview
Creighton finished 3rd in the Big East, sporting a 21-12 record. They had wins over Xavier, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Providence, and UConn, with their only really bad loss coming to Nebraska.

They are a pretty young team with three of their 5 starters being Sophomores. Their leading scorer, Ryan Kaklbrenner (7’1, center) is a junior, and their 6’7 wing, Baylor Schierman is a senior.

Last year the Bluejays made the tournament as a 9 seed and beat Sand Diego State (an 8 seed) before falling to #1 Kansas. 3 starters from this year’s team played in the tournament last season (then freshmen Trey Alexander and Arthur Kaluma and then sophomore Kalkbrenner).

By the Numbers
You could look at all sorts of numbers here, but I think the most relevant are these: Creighton is ranked 101 overall in turnovers per game. That’s a lot for a tournament team, and harks back to the fact that they are starting 2 sophomore guards. Meanwhile, NC State is 6th overall with just 9.4 per game. NC State is 16th in turnover margin, while Creighton is 291st.

Creighton averages 71 possession per game, meanwhile, NC State averages 71.6.

This tells me exactly what the eye test was telling me. Creighton is sloppy with the basketball, and they don’t really turn you over. Meanwhile, NC State protects the basketball and DOES turn you over. The ramped-up pressure from the Pack guards on the Creighton sophomores is going to be where you see this play out in real-time.

This also tells you that both NC State and Creighton play at a similar pace. Neither team really works around the basketball to find the best shot, instead, they like to get down and get a shot up. Betting on the volume of possessions to even things out.

I believe that the numbers tell a story that the Wolfpack have a really good matchup here. They are going to be playing at a pace they like, against a team that’s a little loose with the basketball and has young guards.

Defensively, Creighton packs it down a little bit and plays pretty disciplined defense. They get back in transition and they don’t gamble. That said, they are going to have trouble limiting the Pack’s looks due to their personnel. We’ll get into this more in the matchup segment, but NC State has better athletes at the 3 guard positions by far, and Creighton doesn’t have those big bruising guards that have caused trouble for Smith and Joiner this season.

A Look at the Matchups

PG- Ryan Nembhard (6’0, 170lbs, Soph) vs. Jarkell Joiner (6’1, 180lbs, Senior)
Nembhard is fast, pushes the pace, and really keeps the pressure on the defense by constantly being in attack mode. At the same time, he gets sped up, gets out of control at times and can get in trouble because of that. He’s a decent 3pt shooter if you leave him open, but he’s not out there trying to pull up off the bounce. He’s a true pass-first PG who is looking to create havoc and push the issue.

This matchup won’t bother Joiner. Joiner has 10 pounds on Nembhard, is way more athletic, and can easily match his speed. Joiner will be able to elevate over him for jumpers or body him up on drives. On defense, he will be able to stay in front of him, speed him up and hopefully get him to turn the ball over (he leads Creighton in TOs).

SG- Trey Alexander (6’4, 190lb, Sophomore) vs. Terquavion Smith (6’4, 165lbs, Sophomore)
Alexander is a bigger guard, but he doesn’t really play all that physical. He’s more of a shooter and a guy who can do a little bit of everything. He’s got a knack for scoring, but he’s not a guy that is great off the bounce. He can knock down 3s if you leave him open (he’s shooting 44% from long rage) but he shoots such a high percentage because he’s selective with his shots. He’s not going to force the issue.

This matchup is going to be fine for Smith. Offensively, Smith is much quicker than Alexander and will certainly be trying to attack him off the bounce when he can. On defense, Alexander isn’t a guy who is applying massive pressure with rim runs. He’s more of an opportunistic scorer. So if Smith can stay home and keep Alexander in front of you, you can keep him from blowing up like he did against Georgetown where he went for 25pts on 7-10 shooting from 3.

SF– Baylor Sheierman (6’7, 205lbs, senior) vs. Casey Morsell (6’3, 200lb, senior)
This is the matchup of the game. Baylor Sheierman is a zero-conscience lefty with a nice stroke. He’s averaging 12.8ppg and has knocked down a team-high 77 3s. He wants to get hot and he puts a lot of pressure on the defense with his ability to shoot the 3 or get inside and body you up. He’s going to let it fly, but NC State has an answer for him. Morsell is the Pack’s best defender and they’re going to need him in this one. Morsell will be able to frustrate Sheierman with hands in his face, and being able to match his physicality when he goes inside. While Sheierman is 6’7, he plays more like a 6’5 guy. Certainly more of a guard than a forward. He’s also the most active on the glass, scooping up over 8 boards per game. Morsell is good at boxing out and keep his man off the glass. NC State’s best defender will be on the guy I think is Creighton’s difference maker, and it’s another reason I like NC State’s chances here.

PF- Arthur Kaluma (6’7, 225lbs, Soph) vs. Jack Clark (6’8, 200lbs, Senior)
Kaluma is like a slightly less-skilled version of Virginia Tech’s Justyn Mutts. He’s an athletic 6’7 kid who does a little of everything but does nothing great. He’s a 32% 3-point shooter, and really only shoots when he’s wide open. He’s pretty physical, likes to drive it, but isn’t a crafty scorer or anything and he’s not insanely athletic either. But none of this is a knock on Kaluma, he’s good. I actually think he could be a problem in the paint vs. Jack Clark. Clark is a little better at guarding stretch 4s, while Gantt is the guy who would be more ideal to face off against Kaluma. Without Gantt (most likely) Clark and Ross will have to take on this matchup, and Kaluma is going to try to back it down in the paint and play a more physical game.

C- Ryan Kalkbrenner (7’1, 260lbs, junior) vs. DJ Burns (6’9, 275lbs, senior)
Kalkbrenner is Creighton’s leading scorer at 15+ ppg. He reminds me a lot of BC’s Quinten Post. He’s big, tall, and skilled, but not super mobile. He can knock down shots if you leave him open, but most of his damage is going to come if he get deep position or if he’s catching an oop off a pick and roll (which they love to try). This type of big really hasn’t been big trouble for DJ Burns this season. Burns has struggled against more mobile, super-physical bigs. Burns quick-spins and pump-fake-pivots are going to work well against Kalkbrenner, and because he’s so big, I believe (at least at the beginning) they are going to try to allow him to play 1 on 1 with Burns.

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All in all, if NC State had to be an 11 seed, this is the 6 seed I’d want to go up against. A young backcourt that can get turnover prone, and a defense that doesn’t really create many turnovers. A big that doesn’t stretch the floor much and hype man being guarded by Casey Morsell.

NC State out athletes Creighton at all 3 guard spots. They only give up size at the 3, and DJ Burns is likely going to have room to operate. I know the Pack is a 5.5 point dog in this one, but I like their odds this Friday.