Previewing NC State vs. #7 UNC: A Statistical Analysis

NC State and #7 UNC will tipoff tonight at 8pm, and they both enter the contest with the same overall record (11-3) and conference record (3-0).

Let’s take a look at how the two teams compare statistically.

Here’s the brass tax: the Tar Heels hold the statistical advantage in nearly every category. Offensively, the only category the Wolfpack holds the edge is Turnover Percentage. NC State is holding opponents to a few less points, but UNC has also played the 6th hardest schedule. One of the strengths of Kevin Keatts’ defense is taking the ball away, so it’s not shocking that the Wolfpack hold the edge in steals.

Honestly, on paper, UNC is extremely balanced, ranking 10th in Offensive Efficiency and 16th in Defensive Efficiency according to Ken Pom. NC State ranks 68th in Offensive Efficiency and 67th in Defensive Efficiency.

In looking at the Four Factors data above, the only factor that the Wolfpack has an edge is in Turnover Percentage. Offensively, they rank 2nd in Turnover Percentage, and Defensively, UNC ranks 254th in Defensive Turnover Percentage. Aka, NC State is good at taking care of the ball, and it’s not all that likely that UNC is going to take it from them.

The most glaring negative discrepancy for the Pack in the Four Factors data is correlated with the free throw line. NC State is bad at getting to the charity stripe, and they are “good” at sending people there.

If you just look at the data from each teams three conference games, it gets a bit more interesting.

In ACC play, UNC ranks last in Effective Field Goal Percentage, and NC State ranks 6th in Effective Field Goal Percentage Defense. NC State isn’t much better shooting the ball, ranking 12th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, and UNC ranks 1st in Effective Field Goal Percentage Defense.

NC State’s Offensive Efficiency is slightly better than UNC’s (8th/10th).

UNC ranks last in Defensive Turnover Percentage, and NC State ranks 2nd in Offensive Turnover Percentage.

The Tar Heels are third in the ACC in Free Throw Rate, and the Wolfpack rank 8th in Free Throw Rate Defense. UNC’s Defensive Efficiency is tops in the conference.