Wolferetti: Is it time for NC State to suck it up and go big after their loss to #10 Kansas

NC State has a week off right now as they prepare for their final non-conference matchup of the season (vs. Rider, 12/22, 4pm).

This presents us a moment to take a step back and look at what this team has done and what they need to do during conference play to give themselves a chance to earn an at-large bid come March.

Coming into the season, I thought the non-conference slate was pretty good. You started out with 5 games that were pretty much gimmes. Not a bad situation for a team of mostly freshmen and transfers. Then you have 3 pretty competitive games, one of which is against Purdue (who was always likely to be a Top-15 opponent). Then opening ACC at home vs. FSU (a very winnable game), a game against a really bad Coppin State team, and then a Top-10 Kansas team.

NC State really needed one of those competitive con-conference wins. The Texas games is going to stand out as a winnable game that we let slip away. But here we are on the cusp of conference play and we still don’t have a quality non-conference win. It’s reminiscent of last year, when our only name-brand non-conference win was against Vanderbilt, who ended up being awful.

So NC State has to turn things around starting next week and become dominant during conference play.

Just how dominant?

Well, it will depend, but you’re going to need to win 13 or 14 conference games to even be on the bubble. To note, there are only 20 conference games on the schedule. So you can lose just 6 or 7 of those. And even then, you’re going to need to notch some Quad 1 victories.

You’ll likely have a Quad 1 opportunity at Duke on January 27th and UNC on February 19th (if they don’t keep falling off). Right now Clemson is ranked 25th and Pitt is ranked 34th. However, State hosts both of those teams in Raleigh so it’s less likely those would be Quad 1 opportunities.

So what does NC State have going for themselves? They don’t have a bad loss yet.

That’s kinda it.

So what do you do? Do you just keep sticking with it?

I’m just going to be blunt. What we’re doing right now is not going to cut it. Go ahead and bookmark this piece. If I’m wrong, come back, paste this piece on social media, and make me publically eat crow. I’ll own it… but I’ve watched and played my share of this game and I know that I’m not being realistic if I can go down our schedule and point to 14 more wins playing the way we are playing.

Marcus Hill is good, but his jumper is not good enough for him to become a consistent elite scorer. Dontrez Styles is good, but he’s not built to be a go-to volume scorer at this level. You pinned your hopes on Jayden Taylor making a huge jump, but he’s regressed (likely because he’s being asked to do stuff he’s not built for). Huntley-Hatfield has been inconsistent, which you could deal with if the reason for it wasn’t a lack of toughness and physicality on the blocks. Mike O’Connell looks more like the guy who was a role player for the majority of last year and less like the steady rock who led us in our postseason run.

Shoot, the only guy who I think would be logging minutes for nearly every team we’ve played is Ben Middlebrooks, which is crazy to say, since he was pegged as our backup center coming into the season.

So again, what do you do?

You can hope Mike James comes back from his knee injury and becomes your savior, but I don’t think that’s very likely.

What I think needs to happen (and fast) is for NC State Kevin Keatts to commit to an identity, and unfortunately it’s not the one he was hoping to have to commit to.

And I think the only way NC State can set up its personnel to create mismatches on a nightly basis, is to go big, slow it down, get your shooters on the floor, and play a style of basketball that’s more reminiscent of last year’s Final Four run.

PG: Marcus Hill (MOC)
SG: Breon Pass (Trey Parker)
SF: Dontrez Styles (Jayden Taylor)
PF: Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (Ismael Diouf)
C: Ben Middlebrooks

Believe me, I think this type of lineup will have its own issues. For instance, I think they’ll allow more open 3s off the pick and roll, they won’t be as effective in transition (not that they really are today). But they will be tough around the rim and they’ll be able to get their better players on the floor for longer stretches. I don’t see another option.

We need guys to accept their best attributes as well as their limitations…

No one can stay in front of Marcus Hill, but Marcus Hill isn’t a threat from outside. Let’s run him as a point guard, let him create off the pick and roll, and challenge him to more of a distributor and less of a guy who is trying to challenge 7 footers at the rim.

We call Breon Pass a PG, but he really hasn’t shown much aggressiveness from that position. He’s been better playing off the ball, and he’s the best shooter on the team at the moment.  Move him off the ball and let Marcus Hill create and kick to him on the wings.

Styles is easily versatile enough to play the 3. He’s not super quick, he’s more a physicality guy, so he’s not really causing havoc at the 4. Move him to the 3 where his strength plays up and creates mismatches. He can still spread the floor with his 3 ball.

Your 4 and 5 can be Ben and BHH to start, but you HAVE GOT TO START GIVING MINUTES TO DIOUF.

I just watched every possession he’s had all season long and there is zero reason he’s not getting more minutes. He’s boxing out, he’s playing aggressively, he’s fighting for rebounds. What the heck does the guy need to do to get a little more run. Maybe he doesn’t pan out, but heck, if he does then you really have someone that is more in the mold of a Mo Diarra-type stretch 4 that was the game-changer for you down the stretch.

If you’re going to go bigger 3-5, then you need to go more athletic at the 1 and 2. That’s why I think it’s important to see what Hill and Pass can do in tandem. Hill and Taylor would be more athletic, but. you’d lack shooting and with Taylor at the 2, plus you’d have more turnovers. Having Hill and Pass together gives you 2 ball handlers and 2 guys capable of defending.

If Mike O’Connell can get act together, Jayden Taylor can find his offense and/or Mike James comes back, then a lot of this changes. But for now, given what you’ve got, I think this is your best shot.

You can hopefully find your identity in physicality, size, and rebounding and hope you can out-tough teams on a nightly basis.

We really need to see Kevin Keatts embrace some change here and back off of his dream to make this team an up-tempo offensive juggernaut. With the non-conference schedule a wash, NC State needs to reinvent itself, and fast.