Wolferetti: The blueprint for success was written, Kevin Keatts is failing to follow it

NC State lost in embarrassing fashion to Wake Forest 77-59, and we’re all pretty pissed off because honestly, it’s not like the basketball we saw played today was any surprise.

This team has been playing a pretty poor brand of basketball all season long. And you know what, it’s not the player’s fault. It really isn’t.

This is a bunch of players who are being asked to play outside of their skill set and win at the ACC level.

Mike O’Connell isn’t really that valuable unless you have playmakers around him.

Marcus Hill is super quick and amazing at finishing around the rim, but his inability to keep defenders honest on the perimeter makes him a very one-dimensional player on offense.

Jayden Taylor is a great defender and a very physical player, but he can’t shoot off the dribble, doesn’t have a tight handle, and turns that ball over at a very high clip.

Dontrez Styles is an undersized (6’6) 4 who is very physical, very feisty, but isn’t super quick and doesn’t shoot it well enough to demand the floor be spread.

Dennis Parker Jr has the exact same profile as Dontrez Styles, and is also trying to be fit in at the 4 (at 6’6).

Ben Middlebrooks is a backup big man on any really good team. He’s not the type of big you run your offense through.

I could go on and on…

There is no ill-will here. We’ve said these things more gently over the past 9 weeks, but it’s January 5th, we’re 1-2 in the ACC, we lost all of our big non-conference games and our hopes of an at-large bid are slipping away. It’s time for a little urgency and I think that warrants a little brutal honesty.

We all love these kids and they are giving it all they’ve got, but are they really being put in the best position to succeed? I don’t think so.

Kevin Keatts is fully subscribed to playing an uptempo brand of basketball that puts a priority on athleticism over offensive skills (shooting/passing) and is based on a ‘small-ball’ theory that somehow an undersized 4 is going to spread the court and make mismatches on offense while allowing them to switch 1-4 on defense.

This worked well and UNCW, and because of that, it was worth testing on the ACC level. Maybe you cracked a code and what worked in the Colonial Conference would work in the ACC.

But it’s been 7 years and the test is over. It’s not working. It has NEVER worked here.

Here are our ACC conference finishes over Keatts tenure…

10th
6th
15th
9th
6th
8th
3rd (his first season)

Keatts hasn’t had NC State in the upper 3rd of the ACC over the past 6 seasons.

And yes, his team made a miraculous run last year that saved his career, hung an ACC Tourny banner and a Final Four Banner, and we will be forever grateful for that.

But as Casey Morsell said during the telecast of the first game of the season this year, the run last season came when the Pack was forced to pull back their press and started playing slower (because they’d have to play 5 days in a row). It also came as 6’10 Mo Diarra started to get comfortable at the 4, after only playing around 12 minutes per game the first half of the season as Keatts was toying with Dennis Parker Jr and Jayden Taylor at the 4.

Look, it’s fine that the initial style of play didn’t work. That’s the process of becoming a great coach. You succeed at the lower levels with one style, and you try it at the next. If it doesn’t work, you tweak it, you change it and you learn how to succeed at the next level. It’s the process of all great coaches. And for Keatts, the blueprint for the future was laid out right in front of him!!

Get a center who could score with his back to the basket. Get a 3-level scoring guard who shoots 40%+ from 3. Get a defensive-minded, role-playing 3. Get a game manager at the point. Get a 6’10 versatile 4 who can rebound and stretch the floor. Play fast, but take smart shots. Don’t press or overplay on defense. Focus on keeping your man in front of you and making them shoot over the top of you.

Go back and rewatch the Final Four run. This was exactly how it played out.

And we, as NC State fans, were excited.

Keatts’ initial style of play may not have worked out at this level, but he had cracked the code again! Now that we saw the system work, we’d just focus on bringing in players that were similar to those that had just made the run, and we’d finally have a proven identity to build off of.

So it’s not surprising that NC State fans are pulling their hair out watching this year’s NC State basketball team. It’s as if the Final Four run never happened.

We’re back to running out 6’6 forwards, running out lineups without a single guy shooting over 35% from 3-point range. Pushing up on ball handlers at half court for no reason, only for it to lead to blowbys and requiring a chaotic amount of help and recover, which leads to easy buckets and open looks.

Look, I know Kevin Keatts is probably frustrated that there are so many fans screaming at him telling him how he should coach. I’m sure he’s frustrated that there isn’t more loyalty after such an amazing run last year. I’m sure he’s even more sick of losing than we are. But it’s not confusing….

We WANT Kevin Keatts to succeed. We want Kevin Keatts to be the coach who turned around NC State and made us the constant contender we all desire to be…but we are PULLING OUT OUR HAIR watching this commitment to a brand of basketball that has been proven unsuccessful at this level.

Meanwhile, the style of play that gave us one of our most magical runs in history, is being abandoned.

So things can go two ways now….

Keatts can double down and continue to force a round peg into a square hole. He can dig in and try to prove all his critics wrong by sticking with the style that got him here, even if he has to go down with the sinking ship. It’s not going to make him very popular with the fan base, but maybe he doesn’t care about that.

Or he can change things up. Try to replicate the lineup and style of play that helped him to the greatest run of his NC State career.

Now that’s not as simple as it sounds, because some of these mistakes were already made as the roster was being constructed, but that’s for another article (that will be written)…

What we all would like to see ATTEMPTED…

– Try playing an aggressive, but more compact (half-court) style of defense to limit blow-bys and force opponents into tougher shots.

– Abandon the small-ball theory. No more 6’6 guys at the 4. Move those guys to the 3. But you can’t have two centers out there either. This means Ismael Diouf (6’9) has to become a major part of this basketball team and your starting 4. He defends the pick and roll. He can score in the post. He can rebound and he can shoot it a little bit.

– Get your shooters on the floor. Breon Pass is shooting 54% from 3 point range. Your other guards are shooting a combined 29% from long range. Pass might not be your best defender, he might not be your best playmaker, and he might not be your best game manager. But he’s your best shooter, and right now, that’s what you need to make your offense multi-dimensional.

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Now look, this might not work. This might flop. But why not try it?

In fact, it’s the smartest thing Keatts could do.

By trying these things that the fanbase is screaming for you to try, you get yourself a win/win. If it works, you prove that you are willing to change and everyone is happy that you’re winning. The happier the fanbase the longer they back you. The longer they back you, the more likely it is that the administration extends your contract. The longer they extend your contract, the more money you get.

And hey, if you don’t win, then you get to say, “See, its not me and my style that’s the issue…so stay in your lane!” and the fanbase can’t argue with you.

Either way, you’re showing that you are willing to try anything to win, and that’s all the NC State fans have ever asked for.