GAMEDAY: NC State already facing a must-win vs. Notre Dame tonight @ 7PM | Keys to the Game, Odds & How to Watch

NC State Wolfpack (8-6) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-7)
Time: 7PM EST
TV: ESPNU
Line : NCSU -2.5
Location: Raleigh, NC

Game Preview

I hate to say it, but it’s January 8th and NC State is already facing a game that is a must-win if they want to have any decent chance of an at-large bid come March. But despite the Irish being 7-7 and despite NC State being 2.5 point favorites, this is going to be a very tough matchup for the Wolfpack.

Notre Dame just got their star back and he TRIVES in open space
Markus Burton, the 5’11 PG who creates absolute chaos on the court for opposing defenses, returned against UNC after missing 7 straight games with a knee injury. This is the guy that makes them go, and he’s the exact type of guard that NC State struggles against.

Burton torched NC State for 18 points last season, but he also turned the ball over 6 times. That said, Burton was a freshman then, and was having bigtime troubles taking care of the basketball. Towards the end of last season, he started limiting his turnovers, and this year he’s taken it a step forward. He has 28 assists to just 10 turnovers on the season. That’s an elite 2.8 assist/TO ratio.

So what does this mean? Well, it means that he’s even that much more dangerous. He’s now averaging 19 PPG and 4 assists, while turning it over only 1.6 times per game. The guy THRIVES in space, and if NC State is going to continue to extend their defense to half-court, then he’s going to have no shortage of space to work with. Just like Purdue PG Braden Smith absolutely controlled that basketball game, Burton is going to likely do the same in this one unless we can bottle him up somehow.

Last year Jayden Taylor got the assignment and I assume he will get it again this year. But honestly, I hate to say it, but I don’t think it will matter. If we are extending the defense, Burton is going to be getting into the lane, and ND has shooters all around him. I don’t like this matchup because of this reason alone. Last year Burns bailed us out in a close-call win, but he’s gone and we’ll need to focus more on slowing down Burton if we want to win this game.

6’9 Tae Davis will be an interesting matchup for NC State
The Irish have Kebbe Njie as their center. He’s a 6’10 big man who will be a fine matchup for either Ben or BHH. But at the 4 they play 6’9 Tae Davis who came over from Seton Hall. He’s a problem. He’s averaging 17 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. He’s tall and athletic, but he’s only 208lbs. He not going to beat you from long range (where he’s shooting 20%), but he’s a face up and attack type guy and he’s very versatile. He’s also quick off the ground and does a good job on the glass, particularly on the offensive glass.

I’ve been beating the drum to see more Ismael Diouf, and I still want to see him working into this game a lot more, but this is a decent matchup for Dontrez Styles and it might be game where Styles and Parker Jr get some decent minutes together.

It will be interesting to see if Styles’ physicality can neutralize Davis, a guy who is’nt necessarily out there seeking contact. That said, if Davis is doing damage on the offensive glass due to his 3-inch advantage, then I feel like you have to go with Diouf to try to keep him off the boards. I think this is one where you need to get a feel for the matchup within the first 5-10 minutes to see how you want to play it.

Shooters on the wings
At the 2, Notre Dame has Matt Allocco, who is averaging 10 points per game and shooting 46% from 3 point range. At the 3 they have their volume shooter Braeden Shrewsberry, a sophomore who is shooting 37% from long range and already has 6 games where he’s hit 4 3-pointers or more. He’s averaging 16 points per game.

If I’m Notre Dame, I’m clearing it out and letting Burton isolate Taylor. I’m not even sure I’d want to send Burton into too many pick and roll scenarios. The more space the better, as he’s lightning quick, keeps his dribble very low, and is a dual threat to score or to pull in help defense and dish it out. Notre Dame is literally constructed around this skill set of Burton’s and it’s the type of skill set that has absolutely eaten NC State alive in the past.

Not to beat a dead horse, but if I’m Keatts and packing this defense in and keeping space to a minimum. I’m making Burton navigate through tons of traffic where Taylor can use his height and length to his advantage. If Burton gets any defender chest to chest near mid court, he’s getting on their shoulder and from there he’s controlling NC State’s defense.

NC State plan of attack
If I’m NC State, I’m pulling back the press and playing disciplined position defense.

To me, the entire game rests on your ability to keep Burton out of the lane. He’s a 30% 3-point shooter. That means he’ll knock down open 3’s, but he’s not making (or probably taking) contested ones. I’m having my defense sprint back, and pick up at the NBA 3pt line area. I’m giving Burnton a step and daring him to shoot the 3 over top of me. I’m not switching, I’m going underneath screens for him and having my big hedge with a hand up. If he’s going to beat you with the 3, then let him.

But if you can keep Burton out of the lane, then you neutralize Matt Allocco, who against any decent defender is really just a catch and shoot perimeter shooter. Sure, he likes to try to put it ont the floor, but NC State should welcome that.

All of that said, I don’t think NC State needs to sit back on defense all game. I do think surprising with full court traps from time to time would be smart, taking the ball out of Burton’s hands from time to time and having one of the other guards initiate the offense, or be forced to make a play in transition, but do this too much and ND will pivot and exploit it.

Schrewsberry is good in the pick-and-roll because he can shoot and he’s a decent passer, but he’s not a great finisher at the rim. I’m going overtop of screens for him, switching if need be and being ok with him getting most of his shot attempts inside the arc.

I’d be forcing ND to look to Tea Davis and Njie for points. I know Davis is a good scorer, but between Styles, Parker Jr. and Diouf, Keatts should be able to find a matchup to slow Davis down. And Njie, well, I’d be happy with him getting 7+ shot attempts because that would mean the Irish has been relegated to trying to win in the post (their weakest area).

Final Take
I’m glad this is a home game, because I don’t love this matchup if NC State continues to extend their defense. Guys like Burnton have diced up NC State year after year and I’m afraid of that happening again.

However, I do think NC State has a defnite athletic advantage in this game and I like Marcus Hill in this matchup. I do worry about ND on the offensive glass with Davis up against Styles. NC State has been killed by bigger 4s reaching over Styles for tip outs which end up as offensive rebounds. This is why I think a bigger lineup of Hill, Taylor, Styles, Diouf and Middlebrooks makes sense.

Even in this game, you could put Taylor on Burnton, Hill on Shrewsberry, and I wouldn’t worry about Styles on the 6’4 Allocco. Styles would have the height advantage by 2 inches, about 10 lbs on him, and would be about equal in quickness. Then you’d have Diouf on Davis, which again, you’ll have to monitor. Davis could out-athlete him, but at the same time, Diouf is active on the boards and protects the rim well without fouling, so I actually think it might be an interesting way to approach Davis. Meanwhile Ben or BHH vs Njie is totally fine.

Unfortuntely, I’d be surprised if we see any of these adjustments, just based on what we’ve seen play out this season. It’s more likely that NC State tries to speed up Notre Dame so much that they make enough mistakes and miss enough 3s to allow NC State’s 99th-ranked offense (based on Adj. Offensive Efficiency) to come out on top. If that’s the bet, however, I don’t love it.