Analyzing NC State’s Path to Making the ACC Tournament After Losing at Syracuse

NC State lost to Syracuse 60-74 last night, falling to 4-13 in the ACC.

They entered the game ranked 16th in the ACC standings with a 4-12 record, holding the tiebreaker over Boston College after beating them head-to-head. Despite both NC State and Boston College sharing the same conference record, with the Eagles losing 60-78 to Stanford last night, the Wolfpack remains in 16th place, just one spot outside of the ACC Tournament.

Cal now finds itself in 15th place after losing 77-81 to SMU last night, which gives them a 5-12 conference record.

Summing it up, NC State entered last night’s contest with Syracuse one game out of 15th place, and despite the loss, they find themselves in the same position this morning. However, trailing Syracuse by one game prior to last night’s contest was a much better situation than trailing the Golden Bears by one game this morning. The Wolfpack would have won a tiebreaker against the Orange with the same record, due to beating them head-to-head. If NC State and Cal were to share the same record, Cal would win the tiebreaker for beating the Wolfpack head-to-head.

So, with three games left in the regular season, the Wolfpack trails the Golden Bears by one game for that 15th spot, but in reality, they trail by two games, because if they share the same record, they lose the tiebreaker head-to-head.

According to PlayoffStatus.com, NC State still has a 23% chance of making it into the 2025 ACC Tournament. Their chances increase to 43% if they defeat Georgia Tech on Saturday; if they lose, those chances drop to 10%. Here’s the best-case scenario for NC State this weekend: a Wolfpack win over the Yellow Jackets, Wake Forest beats Notre Dame, and Boston College beats Cal. If all three of those outcomes occur, NC State would have a 60% chance of making the tournament with two games remaining.

Projecting the next three games, KenPom predicts NC State will lose to Georgia Tech and Pitt but defeat Miami in the regular-season finale. They predict Cal will beat Boston College in their next game, then lose to Louisville and Notre Dame. ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor agrees with KenPom’s projections.

Looking at the three remaining games, according to PlayoffStatus.com, if NC State wins all three, they have a 95% chance of making the ACC Tournament, and if they win two, they have a 43% chance.

Again, this is all conjecture at this point, but to clarify, NC State currently sits in 16th place. If they win this weekend and Cal beats Boston College, they will still be in 16th place, trailing the Golden Bears by one game. If they win and Boston College beats Cal, then they would move into 15th place, winning the tiebreaker among the three teams due to their win against Wake Forest.