Analyzing NC State’s Path to Making the ACC Tournament After Losing at Georgia Tech

You’re probably wondering why I’m still writing these articles. I understand your curiosity.

Well, since it’s my job to report the news and analyze the data, I’ll break down the very unlikely path for NC State to make the 2025 ACC Tournament, as long as they are not completely eliminated.

Currently, NC State is in 16th place with a 4-14 record, two games behind Notre Dame. The only way for NC State to get into the Conference Tournament is for the Fighting Irish to lose their final two games and for the Wolfpack to win their final two games, finishing the regular season tied with a 6-14 conference record.

If NC State and Notre Dame finish the regular season tied, the Wolfpack would win the tiebreaker, having beaten the Fighting Irish head-to-head 66-65 on January 8th at the Lenovo Center.

The Wolfpack’s final two regular season games are at home against Pitt on Wednesday and at Miami on Saturday. Notre Dame’s final two regular season games are both at home, against Stanford on Wednesday and Cal on Saturday.

ESPN Analytics gives NC State a 41.3% chance against the Panthers and a 50.1% chance against the Hurricanes. KenPom rates the Wolfpack with a 37% chance of victory against Pitt and a 52% chance against Miami.

ESPN Analytics assigns Notre Dame a 64.5% chance of victory against Stanford and a 73.1% chance against Cal. KenPom gives the Irish a 56% chance of a victory against Stanford and a 68% chance against Cal.

There’s also a scenario where Boston College could finish their final two regular season games with a 6-14 conference record as well. If that happens, the first tiebreaker would be records against one another. NC State would win the tiebreaker against both Notre Dame and Boston College in this scenario, having beaten both head-to-head. Notre Dame beat the Eagles twice but lost to NC State.

ESPN Analytics gives BC a 9.3% chance to beat Clemson and an 8.7% chance against Pitt. KenPom gives them an 11% chance of victory in both of their final games.

PlayoffStatus.com gives NC State a 7% chance of making it into the 2025 ACC Tournament.