NC State Basketball

A Deeper Look at the Numbers in NC State’s 88-86 Exhibition Win Over South Carolina

Published

2 months ago

October 27, 2025

Yesterday NC State defeated South Carolina 88-68 in an exhibition game in Greensboro Coliseum, on a buzzer beating three pointer by Sophomore Guard Paul McNeil Jr.

Using Dean Oliver’s Four Factors of Basketball Success, let’s take a deeper look at the Wolfpack’s win over the Gamecocks.

Effective Field Goal Percentage
NC State – 60.5%
South Carolina – 66.1%

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
NC State – 36.8%
South Carolina – 42.3%

Turnover Percentage
NC State – 13.6%
South Carolina – 19.3%

Free Throw Rate
NC State – 52.6%
South Carolina – 26.8%

Despite being outshot from the field, NC State made up for it with superior ball security and aggression at the line. South Carolina might have had a higher Offensive Rebounding Percentage, but they didn’t capitalize on those opportunities the way the Wolfpack did. NC State had 21 second chance points, while the Gamecocks had 15.

Even though shooting the ball well is obviously the most important Factor in basketball success, NC State’s win over South Carolina yesterday is proof that the other three Factors can make up for inferior shooting. The Wolfpack had 6 more second chance points (related to Offensive Rebounding Percentage), 10 more points off of turnovers and 7 more made free throws (related to free throw rate).

For reference, here’s how each of the Four Factors is calculated.

Factor	What It Measures	Formula	What It Tells You
1. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)	How efficiently a team shoots, adjusting for 3-pointers being worth more.	(FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) ÷ FGA	Gives a more accurate picture of shooting efficiency than regular FG%.
2. Turnover Percentage (TOV%)	How often a team ends a possession with a turnover.	Turnovers ÷ Possessions	Lower is better — shows how well a team protects the ball.
3. Offensive Rebounding Percentage (ORB%)	How many of a team’s missed shots they rebound.	ORB ÷ (ORB + Opponent DRB)	Higher means more second-chance opportunities.
4. Free Throw Rate (FTR)	How often a team gets to the line relative to its shot attempts.	FTA ÷ FGA	Measures how well a team draws fouls and scores from the line.