NC State takes on #10 UNC today in Chapel Hill at 12 noon (on the CBS ). The Heels come into this game at 16-5 on the season and 5-3 in the ACC. Their best wins have been over#20 Tennessee and #20 Clemson. They have lost to #4 Michigan State, Wofford, #24 FSU, #8 Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)
Effective FG% Offense
UNC- 52.2
NC State- 51.2
The takeaway: UNC and NC State are pretty similar here. UNC does edge them out by 1% and that is because they are slightly better at shooting the 3 ball. If you look at traditional FG%s, both teams shoot it EXACTLY the same from the floor at 45.8%, but UNC hits 37% of their 3s to NC State’s 32%. I think 3pt shooting is going be important in this game. If the Wolfpack go cold and have one of their 25% shooting nights from downtown, then it’s likely they won’t be coming home with the W. But if they are able to knock down some shots, all signs point to this being a game.
Effective FG% Defense
UNC– 49.7
NC State- 50.7
The takeaway: Again, only a 1% difference. UNC and NC State are neck and neck. Neither team, however, is great at stopping their opponent from making shots. The area where you find a major difference defensively is in their adjusted D-Efficiency stats where UNC ranks 16th and NC State ranks 135th in the country. That jump for UNC (despite being nearly identical in eFG% on defense) is thanks to their defensive rebounding, which is nearly best in the nation. That said, rebounding doesn’t factor into this stat, and when that’s not in the equation, these two teams aren’t that much different defensively.
Turnover % on offense
UNC- 17.7
NC State- 17 (60th in nation)
The takeaway: Again, these two teams are right there with one another. NC State is .7% better than UNC in turnover percentage, but that is enough to be a big difference in the rankings. State is 60th in the country, while UNC comes in at 105th. However, look at season averages and you’ll see that UNC turns it over 13 times per game and NC State turns it over 12 times per game. Its just another area where these two teams are nearly identical.
Turnover % forced
UNC- 15.8
NC State- 21.6 (41st in nation)
The takeaway: Ok, now we’ll get to an are where NC State wins big. The Pack is doing a good job at creating turnovers and UNC isn’t. State uses constant full-court pressure to frustrate opposing guards into taking quick shots and making poor decisions with the basketball. This number for NC State is pretty good, but as great as it could be. UNC, however, is pretty disastrous when it comes to turning people over, coming in at 287th in the country. Their defensive pressure is not at normal Carolina levels and while Berry and Pinson both play pretty good D, as a team they aren’t in passing lanes and making it tough on opposing offenses to get into and run their sets. Also note that NC State is in the top 3 in the ACC in steals, while UNC is in the bottom 3. The point here is that if NC State wants to win, they need to turn over the Heels at a pretty good rate because this is where they have a big advantage.
Offensive rebounding %
UNC – 37.5 (5th in the nation)
NC State- 36.1 (11th in nation)
The takeaway: Another category where these two are nearly pretty much the same. Both of these teams are elite offensive rebounding groups. UNC is led by Luke Maye on the offensive glass (with 58 total offensive boards on the season), but really after that, it’s a team effort. The whole team, to an extent, do work on the offensive glass. For NC State, they are more top heavy. Omer Yurtseven leads the way with 62 on the season. Torin Dorn is catching up fast and now has 59. and Lennard Freeman has 44. Abu only has 22, but he’s also only played 250 minutes this season, so his per minute rate is around what Freeman is putting up. How well these teams do on the offensive glass will be dependent on this next stat, which looks at how well they rebound on the defensive end. Key note: UNC guards are doing a good job on the offensive glass. Beverly, Johnson and Batts better be ready to box out expecially well today.
Offensive rebounding % Allowed
UNC – 23.3 (14th in the nation)
NC State- 30.9
The takeaway: Here is where NC State has a problem. The Pack is bad on the defensive glass and UNC is great. The Heels are one of the best teams in the country at not allowing offensive boards and NC State is one of the nation’s best on the offensive glass. So that will just be a battle of ‘who wants it more.’ The scary part comes when UNC misses a shot. NC State isn’t great on the defensive glass and allow a lot of offensive rebounds (and 2nd possessions), UNC will want to take full advantage of that, and have the ability to, as one of the 5th best team in the nation on the offensive glass. How the battle of the boards plays out will be a number to watch.
FT Rate Offense
UNC – 27.7
NC State- 36.3
The takeaway: NC State gets to the line more than UNC, thanks to the Freemans and Torin Dorn. Those are NC State’s attack-dogs and do a good job of playing through contact and taking the ball to the rim. For UNC it’s Theo Pinson, Berry and Luke Maye who have the most FT attepts, but after that there is a big drop off. NC State doesn’t really drop off much and has Omer Yurtseven and Lavar Batts Jr, who both get to the line at a good clip. This game is at UNC so even though NC State’s numbers say they’ll spend more time at the line, I wouldn’t bet on it.
FT Rate Allowed
UNC – 23.1 (5th in nation)
NC State- 33.4
The takeaway: UNC doesn’t allow teams to get to the line, but that makes sense. Teams that do well in this category usually are ranked low in TO% forced and UNC is pretty bad in that area. Those numbers show a defense that really isn’t all that physical or aggressive. Don’t confuse that with bad defense, because while the Heels aren’t a great defensive team, they are fundamental and focus more on rebounding than they do ball pressure.
Overall
Yes, this game is at UNC and yes, the last time State played there they took the beating of a lifetime, but looking at these numbers, this game really should be battle. Both teams play at about the same tempo, and both teams shoot the ball about the same. UNC’s key is to win on the glass and NC State’s key is to force them into bad shots and turnovers with pressure defense. I think for the Wolfpack to pull off the upset they’ll need to overachieve on the defensive glass and shoot the ball slightly better than normal. If they do those things and can hold their other numbers steady, they walk out with a W.
Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.
Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.
Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.
Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.
