NC State Wolfpack @ #10 UNC Tar Heels
Gametime: 12:00 pm
Streaming: CBS
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Getting to know the Heels…
The Heels come into this game at 16-5 on the season and 5-3 in the ACC. Their best wins have been over#20 Tennessee and #20 Clemson. They have lost to #4 Michigan State, Wofford, #24 FSU, #8 Virginia, and Virginia Tech (they also just squeaked out a 1pt win over Notre Dame). So right off the bat, you can notice that they really haven’t beaten anyone THAT elite. State has taken down Duke (who currently sits at #5) and Arizona (who sits at #11). UNC has a bad loss to Wofford on their home court and just fell to Virginia Tech who isn’t all that great either. State’s bad losses are Northern Iowa at a neutral court and UNCG at home. So really, are these two teams really all that different?
Carolina’s offense is powered by Joel Berry and Luke Maye. These two guys are their two most consistent scorers and easily their go-to guys. Berry is a senior, averaging 17.6 points and 3 assists per game. He’s shooting 38% from the floor and 36% from 3pt range. So he’s no real model of efficiency, but he’s the best scoring guard they’ve got and he can score at all 3 levels when he’s on. Over the past 3 outings he’s shooting only 33% , but did have a nice 23pt performance in their loss to Virginia Tech. NC State needs to lock down on him, don’t help off on him and deny him the basketball. If Joel Berry has a bad game, NC State’s chances of winning skyrocket.
The other true offensive factor is Luke Maye. The 6’8 junior is really just a fundamental big with a great motor who can shoot it. He has good, strong back to the basket post moves, reads screens well and has a nice touch. He is averaging 18 points and 10 boards per game. He’s shooting 52% from the floor and 49% from 3 pt range. State needs to really be aware of him at all times and watch him flaring off screens to find open 3s. He’s actually is a pretty good matchup for Lennard Freeman or Abu (if those guys are playing up to their potential).
After that, they have junior guard Kenny Williams who averages 11ppg and is a pretty good outside shooter, but not a great creator off the dribble. They have Cameron Johnson who can at times be a matchup problem as a versatile 6’8 guard who can really stroke it from outside. Then there is Theo Pinson. The 6’6 senior is really more of a defensive player for the Heels, but he is quick and is good at probing the defense and getting things moving. He is well rounded, averaging 6 points, 6 boards and 4.5 assists. His shot, however, is nothing to get too nervous about as he’s hitting only 15 % of his 3s.
In the middle, it’s Luke Maye or bust. Their other bigs simply aren’t that great. 6’11 freshman Sterling Manley just hasn’t had it click yet and has seen his minutes really get eaten into and 6’9 freshman Garrison Brooks hasn’t had that great of an ACC stretch either, scoring a total of 14 points over his previous 5 games.
UNC will likely opt to go a little smaller vs NC State, but the Pack could really punish them on the block if they do (we’re looking at you Lennard and Malik.)
Keys to the game for NC State…
- Play Physical, Win on the boards.UNC is a jump shooting team that rebounds well. That’s it. Joel Berry can create a little bit, but he’s more comfortable pulling up for the jumper and Theo Pinson will drive, but rarely will finish in any sort of traffic. NC State has got to win on the boards. They have got to box out and make sure UNC does not get second-chance points. If they go big, with Johnson, Al Freeman (or Batts), Dorn, L. Freeman and Omer Yurtseven then they will be able to pretty much match Carolina’s size and versatility and minimize the damage Maye can do to them on the blocks. State also needs to play physical and with a chip on their shoulder. Last year they walked in like something was owed to them and got their a**es handed to them. This UNC team isn’t all that tough and coming out fearless and physical could knock them back a bit. One of the Pack’s biggest weakness has been the ability to stop quicker guards from getting in the lane (usually via the pick and roll). That’s not really UNC’s game, so matchup wise this should be a pretty even duel.
- Make shots. Sounds simple, right? It’s not. At least for this group. NC State has shot awful on the road and needs to change that in this one. They’re due for a hot shooting night on the road and with this being a rivalry game, they should be laser-focused and firing on all cylinders. Knocking down some early 3s would really help confidence, but against UNC they can’t fall in love with the 3. They need efficiency on offense. That means they need to really need to get Yurtseven going. Carolina is well aware that they really don’t have anyone that can guard him, so watch for them doubling down and forcing some other guys to make shots.
- Stay out of foul trouble. OK, ACC refs, We’re all watching and waiting. I can all but guarantee this isn’t going to be a game where they let the guys play through all sorts of contact like they did in Charlottesville vs UVA. That doesn’t happen in Chapel Hill. We’re expecting Carolina to go down low to Luke Maye and try to draw early fouls on Omer Yurtseven. How Yurtseven and the refs respond will dictate a lot. If he can stay on the floor and Lennard Freeman and Malik Abu can have productive games, the Pack will have a big frontcourt advantage.
- Turn them over. The UNC guards have not been all that great with ball control or handling pressure in the ACC and they’ve allowed those TOs to turn into transition buckets on the other end. NC State needs to fluster them with full-court pressure, get in the passing lanes and deny point to point passes. This just feels like a game that the Pack would find more success going with Johnson and Batts in the backcourt a little more than usual. These two are bigger, stronger guards who are ball hawks and can jump passes and turn steals into transition buckets.
- The Keatts factor. Don’t be fooled by this “It’s just another game” talk from Kevin Keatts. If you haven’t gotten a good read on him yet, here’s the thing; he’s not going to create billboard material for his opponents or use the media for motivation. Keatts is an in-house coach. He knows what this game means. This is his first matchup with UNC. He’s already put Krzyzewski in his place and he’s coming for Roy. Keatts isn’t just happy to be at NC State, he wants to own Tobacco Road and today’s his chance to send his first message to the boys in powder blue. Believe me, his team will be ready.
(gif via @BarstoolPack)
