NC State Basketball
Trusted “Dance Card” formula gives NC State 99.9% chance of a Tourney bid
The the “Dance Card” formula was developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University and is designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
This formula has correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%).
According to the “Dance Card,” NC State is ranked #42 and has a 99.9% chance of getting a bid as of February 4th.
So, what changed? Did the Notre Dame win really vault NC State into a near ‘tournament lock”?
Nope. As we explained after the UNC game, everyone was so laser-focused on RPI and NC State’s weak SOS that they were shelving some of the biggest deciders out there. The Pack has a neutral court win against Arizona. They have home wins against Clemson and Duke and they have a road win over UNC and they had a really good chance of getting to 9 ACC wins (or more). All they had to do is continue to play the way they have been playing and they were in.
Interesting what happens when you really dig into the stats and take in the whole picture instead of cherry picking stats that fit your “Why NC State might not make the dance” narrative (as some decided to do after the UNC win). In fact, if you had taken in the full statistical profile of NC State after the UNC win, the narrative was trending much more towards the “Why NC State is closing in on locking up an NCAA bid in a season where everyone and their mother picked them to finish in the bottom 4”
Now of course, 99.9% is not 100%. Any of these teams could fall apart. Shoot, some of these 100% teams could lose out and fail to get a bid. But as of now, with the information that’s out there, with the current statistical trends, NC State is closing in on being a lock for the NCAA tournament.
A big week this week could punch their ticket.
Bowling Green Transfer Guard Marcus Hill (6’4″/185) has committed to NC State!
Hill took an Official Visit to NC State this past weekend.
This past season, Hill averaged 20.5 points and 5.0 rebounds per game for the Falcons. He earned 1st Team All-MAC honors. Even though he was only at Bowling Green one season, he had one of the best seasons in school history, scoring 698 points, which ranks 5th all-time in program history for a single season.
For his first two years of collegiate ball, Hill played for Southern Union State College (JUCO) in Alabama. In 2022-23, Hill earned 3rd Team NJCAA All-American honors, and ranked as the #32 overall Junior College prospect.
247Sports ranks Hill as a 4-Star Transfer Prospect, and the #81 overall player in the Transfer Portal, and the #11 Shooting Guard.
Even though 247Sports and ON3 consider Hill a Shooting Guard, NC State is recruiting him as a Point Guard.
Hill is the 4th player to transfer to NC State this offseason, joining Louisville’s Brandon Huntley-Hatfield & Mike James, and Georgetown’s Dontrez Styles.
With the addition of Hill, NC State now has 1 scholarship remaining for next season.
NC State Forward Mohamed Diarra will not be returning to NC State for his final season of eligibility. Rather, he will give 100% of his focus to pursuing his professional career.
Diarra is declaring for the NBA Draft, and will explore that possibility as far as it goes, but the likelihood of him playing professionally in his home country of France are high.
Diarra was a significant player for NC State all season long, averaging 6.3 points and 7.8 rebounds (team high), but his impact in March was tremendous, recording 10+ rebounds in 7 of the Wolfpack’s 10 postseason games, and five of those performances were double-doubles.
Wolfpack fans will always remember the grit and mental toughness that Diarra put on display in the NCAA Tournament, playing game-after-game while fasting for Ramadan.
The Wolfpack’s frontcourt just got a little bit thinner. In the past two weeks, NC State has lost Diarra and Ernest Ross. Ben Middlebrooks is returning, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield transferred in from Louisville. Dontrez Styles transferred in from Georgetown, and while he is more of a Small Forward, in certain lineups, he could play the Small 4 position. With all that being said, I fully expect NC State to try to find another post player in the Transfer Portal with Diarra’s exodus now official.
With Diarra not returning in 2024, NC State now has 2 scholarships available for next season.
Louisville Transfer Guard Mike James (6’5″/200) has announced his commitment to NC State!
View this post on Instagram
This past year, James averaged 12.6 points per game (3rd on the team) and 5 rebounds. He’s extremely physical and aggressive, taking 47% of his field goal attempts at the rim (making 46%). As a result, he draws a lot of fouls, ranking 10th in the ACC in Fouls Drawn, and 4th in Free Throw Rate. James made opponents pay this year when they put him on the line, making 81.8% from the charity stripe, which ranked 15th in the ACC.
James shot the ball better as a Redshirt Freshman, than he did this past season. His Effective Field Goal Percentage in 2022-23 was 55.8%, which ranked 19th in the ACC, and his True Shooting Percentage of 59.6% ranked 14th.
News broke about James entering the Transfer Portal back on March 25th, and NC State was quick to reach out. Kevin Keatts and his staff recruited the former 4-star prospect out of high school heavily, but he ultimately chose the Cardinals.
After redshirting his first year in Louisville due to torn achilles, James has been a starter for the Cardinals the past two years.
He does have the ability to knock down a three, making 34.8% for his career.
James has 2 years of eligibility remaining. With James’ commitment, NC State currently has 1 scholarship available for next season.
Bowling Green Transfer Guard Marcus Hill (6’4″/185) confirmed with me that he is currently on a visit at NC State.
Hill averaged 20.5 points and 5.0 rebounds per game for the Falcons this season. He earned 1st Team All-MAC honors. Even though he was only at Bowling Green one season, he had one of the best seasons in school history, scoring 698 points, which ranks 5th all-time in program history for a single season.
For his first two years of collegiate ball, Hill played for Southern Union State College (JUCO) in Alabama. In 2022-23, Hill earned 3rd Team NJCAA All-American honors, and ranked as the #32 overall Junior College prospect.
247Sports ranks Hill as a 4-Star Transfer Prospect, and the #78 overall player in the Transfer Portal, and the #11 Shooting Guard.
According to a source, the NC State Coaching Staff is extremely high on Hill, and they are recruiting him as a Point Guard.
