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NC State vs. Georgia Tech: By the (advanced) numbers

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NC State takes on Georgia Tech tonight at 8pm in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets come into this game at 11-18 on the season and 4-12 in the ACC. They currently sit at 13th in the ACC and have lost 7 straight and 11 of their last 12. They have been playing without star freshman PG (and second leading scorer) Jose Alvarado, who is out for the season with a fractured elbow.

We took a look at the 4-Factors statistics (which are based on Dean Oliver’s study of “What wins in basketball”) and found some interesting areas of focus that may end up being the deciding factors on today’s game. Take a look. (explanation of these statistics at the bottom of page)


Effective FG% Offense

Georgia Tech – 47
NC State- 53.2

 

Effective FG% Defense
Georgia Tech – 49.5
NC State- 51.3



Turnover % on offense
Georgia Tech – 19.3
NC State- 17.3

 

Turnover % forced
Georgia Tech- 18.5
NC State- 21 (43rd in nation)


Offensive rebounding % 
Georgia Tech – 31.4
NC State- 34.3 (26th in nation)


Offensive rebounding % Allowed

Georgia Tech – 30.8
NC State-31.8

 

Adjusted Tempo
Georgia Tech – 65.2
NC State- 71.8

 

FT Rate Offense
Georgia Tech – 35.2
NC State- 34.5

 

FT Rate Allowed
Georgia Tech – 31.3
NC State- 33.2

 

Overall Takeaways
Looking at these stats, you can see that NC State clearly has the advantage. They are outperforming GT in all their ‘strength’ areas and only losing to them by a very small margin in the categories that are a bit less important.

For instance, NC State is shooting the ball much better as a team. They are turning the ball over less than GT and forcing TO’s at a much higher rate as well. Couple that with the fact that NC State is going to really speed this game up, and the Jackets are going to try to slow it down. All these things are a big advantage to the Wolfpack. The faster GT plays, the more mistakes they are going to make, especially with their starting PG sidelined.

NC State also beats Georgia Tech in offensive rebounding. So that’s a clean sweep in the Keatts world. He is focused on stats that equal extra possessions. So TOs and Offensive rebounding stats seem to be pretty good predictors of this team. NC State dominates on both fronts.

In the ACC ranks, Georgia Tech is 13th in FG% and dead last (32%) in 3-point percentage, which is another big stats for Keatts. They are 12th in rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. They are 13th in assists, however they do rank 6th in steals.

The Yellow Jackets are 14th in the ACC in overall scoring on the season and want to slow the pace of play down. Meanwhile, NC State is doing everything they can to speed it up, create extra possessions and score a lot of points.

Statistically this is a pretty bad matchup for Georgia Tech and one NC State, if they come out focused and with energy, should really take advantage of.


Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.

Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.

Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.

Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free-throw line.

NC State Basketball

Boston Transfer Center Caitlin Weimar Commits to NC State

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Boston Transfer Center Caitlin Weimar (6’4″) has verbally committed to NC State for her final year.

Weimar took an Official Visit to NC State a little over a week ago.

She is the reigning Patriot League Player of the Year, and has been named Defensive Player of the Year the past two years. She has earned 1st Team Patriot League Honors the past two seasons.

This year, Weimar averaged 18.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks. As a Junior, she averaged 15.5 points and 10.0 rebounds. She shot 55.5% this year, and 59.7% last year.

With the exodus of River Baldwin, picking up a commitment from Weimar is massive.

With the addition of Weimar, NC State now has 2 scholarships available heading into the 2024-25 season.

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Bowling Green Transfer Guard Marcus Hill Commits to NC State!

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Bowling Green Transfer Guard Marcus Hill (6’4″/185) has committed to NC State!

Hill took an Official Visit to NC State this past weekend.

This past season, Hill averaged 20.5 points and 5.0 rebounds per game for the Falcons. He earned 1st Team All-MAC honors. Even though he was only at Bowling Green one season, he had one of the best seasons in school history, scoring 698 points, which ranks 5th all-time in program history for a single season.

For his first two years of collegiate ball, Hill played for Southern Union State College (JUCO) in Alabama. In 2022-23, Hill earned 3rd Team NJCAA All-American honors, and ranked as the #32 overall Junior College prospect.

247Sports ranks Hill as a 4-Star Transfer Prospect, and the #81 overall player in the Transfer Portal, and the #11 Shooting Guard.

Even though 247Sports and ON3 consider Hill a Shooting Guard, NC State is recruiting him as a Point Guard.

Hill is the 4th player to transfer to NC State this offseason, joining Louisville’s Brandon Huntley-Hatfield & Mike James, and Georgetown’s Dontrez Styles.

With the addition of Hill, NC State now has 1 scholarship remaining for next season.

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NC State’s Mohamed Diarra Will Not Return to NC State for Final Season

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NC State Forward Mohamed Diarra will not be returning to NC State for his final season of eligibility. Rather, he will give 100% of his focus to pursuing his professional career.

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Diarra is declaring for the NBA Draft, and will explore that possibility as far as it goes, but the likelihood of him playing professionally in his home country of France are high.

Diarra was a significant player for NC State all season long, averaging 6.3 points and 7.8 rebounds (team high), but his impact in March was tremendous, recording 10+ rebounds in 7 of the Wolfpack’s 10 postseason games, and five of those performances were double-doubles.

Wolfpack fans will always remember the grit and mental toughness that Diarra put on display in the NCAA Tournament, playing game-after-game while fasting for Ramadan.

The Wolfpack’s frontcourt just got a little bit thinner. In the past two weeks, NC State has lost Diarra and Ernest Ross.  Ben Middlebrooks is returning, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield transferred in from Louisville. Dontrez Styles transferred in from Georgetown, and while he is more of a Small Forward, in certain lineups, he could play the Small 4 position. With all that being said, I fully expect NC State to try to find another post player in the Transfer Portal with Diarra’s exodus now official.

With Diarra not returning in 2024, NC State now has 2 scholarships available for next season.

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Louisville Transfer Guard Mike James Commits to NC State!

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Louisville Transfer Guard Mike James (6’5″/200) has announced his commitment to NC State!

 

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This past year, James averaged 12.6 points per game (3rd on the team) and 5 rebounds. He’s extremely physical and aggressive, taking 47% of his field goal attempts at the rim (making 46%). As a result, he draws a lot of fouls, ranking 10th in the ACC in Fouls Drawn, and 4th in Free Throw Rate. James made opponents pay this year when they put him on the line, making 81.8% from the charity stripe, which ranked 15th in the ACC.

James shot the ball better as a Redshirt Freshman, than he did this past season. His Effective Field Goal Percentage in 2022-23 was 55.8%, which ranked 19th in the ACC, and his True Shooting Percentage of 59.6% ranked 14th.

News broke about James entering the Transfer Portal back on March 25th, and NC State was quick to reach out. Kevin Keatts and his staff recruited the former 4-star prospect out of high school heavily, but he ultimately chose the Cardinals.

After redshirting his first year in Louisville due to torn achilles, James has been a starter for the Cardinals the past two years.

He does have the ability to knock down a three, making 34.8% for his career.

James has 2 years of eligibility remaining. With James’ commitment, NC State currently has 1 scholarship available for next season.

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