NC State Wolfpack vs. UCLA Bruins
Date: December 28th
Time: 8:00 PM
Location: Petco Park
TV: FOX
Line: State -2
The time is finally here. Tuesday night, State takes over Petco Park in San Diego for their Holiday Bowl matchup against UCLA. There is no doubt, this has the chance to be a great game with a bounty of mojo for next season.
For this game preview, we’re breaking it down over five categories. (Also keep in mind, players are fluid with everything going on. If someone talked about below drops, sorry.)
Offense – Advantage UCLA
If you look at UCLA’s final seven games, they were a completely different team. They went 5-2 during that stretch, with their losses being by three to #10 Oregon and then losing at eventual PAC-12 champion Utah.
The last three games of the season, however, is where the offense found their groove.
They averaged 49 points per game, while averaging 518 total yards of offense. That, my friends, is ridiculous. They ended the season ranked 16th in the country in scoring offense. The catalyst for the offensive explosion, was from their QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who shall now be referred to as DTR). The senior ended up with 2,400 passing yards, 600 rushing yards and 30 combined TDs to 6 INTs. DTR singlehandedly changed the trajectory for this Bruins’ season.
UCLA’s running back Zach Charbonnet, also had a solid season. He rushed for 1,137 yards (13 TDs), while also being the team’s third leading receiver in receptions. His healthy 5.6 yards per carry are going to give State trouble Tuesday.
Receiver-wise, UCLA is very similar to State. Steady contributors, that is slightly top-heavy. Wide receiver Philips and TE Dulcich are the top players to watch.
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State is no slouch on offense, but the real concern is how long will it take them to find their rhythm. We’ve seen too often this year, State needing second half adjustments to get going. Now we’re going to stick a month-long break in there?
It’s reason for concern.
Should also be interesting to see is Bam Knight plays. Beyond NFL Draft talk, he noted that his ankle injury was giving him enough problems he may skip the Holiday Bowl. Regardless, Leary is going to have to show up again. Make his reads, take a few deep shots and try to really spread this UCLA defense out. We’re going to need 6-7 deep in receiving help for this one.
Defense – Advantage State
We know it. They know it. The world knows it. State defense is for real.
They should be well-rested and in a better spot health-wise than at any point in the last three months. Add to that the overwhelming motivation for this game into next season, and this could be a special night for the guys. All that said, they still have to deal with a high flying Bruins offense.
Can they pressure and contain DTR? Will this LB crew be able to slow down Dulcich, while cleaning up the run game. Safeties will be a huge key for a win also.
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UCLA’s defense is “fine”. They’re giving up a touchdown more per game than State. They struggle to get pressure in the backfield, even though they blitz a high percentage of snaps. Add to that, they’ll be without their top and fifth best tackler and that only hurts them more.
This game will all come down to their DB performance.
Nationally, they rank 110 out of 130 teams in opponent passing yards per game. That said, their DB’s play hit or miss football. They cause INT’s and that group alone, has triple the number of forced fumbles than State has as an entire team.
If Leary and company can eliminate turnovers and have success through the air early, State will take a massive step towards lifting that trophy.
Special Teams – Even
UCLA is sneaky good in the return game. Three touchdowns on the seasons (2 punts | 1 KO), they rank in the top-ten nationally for return ability. Luckily for State, Wolfpack have the leg advantage.
While we don’t necessarily need to see Gill a lot tonight, his ability to pin opponents will be crucial. As for our returning chances? Let’s just hypothetically say Bam is a go, he’ll pull off a 40 yards return tonight.
Have to make any and all field goals in a game like this. Dunn is the slightly better kicker in this matchup.
Coaching – Even
There is a reason that Chip Kelly seems to be courted by another university every four months or so. But until that late season run, things in LA weren’t great. When his offensive mind is hot, his team is a tough matchup for anybody.
Doeren has proved a lot of haters wrong this year. He got big wins and had his team on the cusp of an ACC Championship appearance. This game could be another step in showing he’s pushing to the top of the conference, from a coaching perspective. We also want to note and recognize Tony Gibson and remind everyone in the Athletic Department, to give this man a damn extension.
Overall Team Depth and Experience – Slight Advantage State
It’s a biased take, but State has the pieces to be a winner in this Bowl. They have a good enough offense to put up points and a defense, that when hungry, can go toe-to-toe with anyone. They are healthier, more focused and have more to prove with this game than the Bruins.
Can they finish this season right?
Greatest Bet of All-Time
This game will be close for a good portion. It’ll be an offensive showcase, with defenses just tying to keep it together. We think State will get the win, but the best play for this game is the over.
The line is currently set to 59.5. That will be destroyed this game.
UCLA down the stretch averaged near 50 points per game. State was nearly 40. Just put your house on it and try to enjoy the ride.
#GoPack
