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NC State comes in as big underdogs vs. VT | Preview, Breakdown & How to Watch

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NC State Wolfpack vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Time: 7:00pm
Location: Blacksburg, VA
TV: ACCN
Line: VT -9

Virginia Tech comes in 8-5 overall. However, they really haven’t beaten anyone great. Their best win is a 4 point victory over Maryland (who is also 8-5 so far). They have losses to #9 Memphis, #25 Xavier, Wake (lost by 20 at home), Dayton, and #2 Duke.

Now they host NC State, but they are coming off a long COVID hiatus where they were forced to postpone 2 straight games. In fact, the Hokies haven’t played a game since December 22nd, which is nearly 3 weeks. Are they ripe for the pickin’ or is Vegas right in predicting Tech wins by 9?

Before we get into that, let’s take a closer look at the Hokies…

VT is well balanced. They have 5 guys who are decent scorers. Their leader is Keve Aluma. He’s a 6’9 senior who is athletic. While he isn’t really dominant at popping out and beating you off the bounce or shooting from beyond the arc with much consistency, he is very good at getting position down low and can finish through contact. He’s averaging 15 points and 6 boards. Most of his points don’t come from VT dumping it down, clearing out, and letting him work. They come from their guards penetrating, demanding help, and dumping off to Aluma who finishes.  Honestly, watching Aluma, you’d think that he’d be an even more dominant force based on his size and athleticism. He moves well, he can get out on the break, and he’s got big bounce. This isn’t a knock. The guy is good and can score in a lot of different ways, and is going to be a problem for State.

They then have 3 guys who average 10 ppg. 6’7 senior slasher Justyn Mutts, 6’3 junior shooter Hunter Cattoor, and 6’4 junior do-it-all guard Nahiem Alleyn. After this group is their point guard, 6’0 senior Storm Murphy averaging 8.

Mutts is going to be an issue for NC State. He’s long, athletic and has a good motor. He’s going to spend most of his time drifting out towards the perimeter, but he can take it down low if he needs to. He’s active on the break and a real high-flyer. He’s not an awful shooter either, knocking down 32% from deep.

Cattoor is the shooter. Think Scott Wood. The guy is going to come off of a ton of screens and shoot a bunch of 3s. He has nearly unlimited range and knocks it down at a crazy 44.8% clip.

Alleyn is another good guard who can slash, pass and shoot. He doesn’t nothing great, but does everything pretty well. And then you have Murphy, who is a pesky guard that likes to get in the lane, create havoc and find open shooters. He’s a decent shooter himself, but not going to take over a game.

Tech is big, athletic, and experienced. They are a beatable team with some flaws, but it’s not going to be easy. Here’s how you do it.


Keys to the game for NC State

  • Keep Seabron at the point. The experiment we begged to see, came to fruition and completely changed the way NC State looked on offense. Suddenly they didn’t look stagnant. Seabron created a problem out top on the pick and roll and was able to draw down defenders and find open shooters. Keatts needs to commit to this change and not look back.
  • Stop dribble penetration and stay home..LIMIT 3s. Virginia Tech is going to be bothered by NC State’s constant switching. They get a lot of their buckets on shooters coming off of screens, but those passes aren’t going to be there. Instead, they are likely going to try to play a lot of inside-out basketball. This means you’ll see a lot of dribble drives and kicks, and dump-downs to the post. Dowuona and Hellems are going to struggle with Aluma and Mutts on the block, and you better believe when those bigs get guards to switch on them, they’ll try to find that mismatch and exploit it (they’re a veteran team). You have to live with the fact that they are going to get theirs in the post. State played this well vs. Purdue and I believe they’ll do the same thing vs VT. The Hokies get a lot of points from their forwards, but this is a guard-driven team and they definitely rely on the 3 to win games. If you can take their guards out of rhythm and keep their open shots to a minimum, they’ll get out of sorts or start to force things that aren’t there.
  • Communication is key. The Hokies run a lot of off-ball screens to get guys open. They do a lot of pick and rolling. They don’t mind playing in the half-court, so communication is paramount. State needs to not lose their men on these screens and let each other know when they are switching and when they are staying put. Watch a little VT and you’ll see that they get 5 or 6 buckets a game purely off miscommunication by the defense.
  • Knock down shots. Easier said than done, right? If you aren’t going to beat VT, you need to shoot it well. They aren’t going to respect Dowuona in the post, so you aren’t to get guards helping down. This is why Seabron at the point is so important. He’s the one guy on NC State that demands help-side. Seabron off the bounce will create open looks outside for guys like Smith, Hellems and Allen. They just need to connect.
  • Beat them on the boards. Did you know that NC State is actually a pretty good rebounding team despite their lack of depth in the middle? Most of it is thanks to Seabron leading the ACC at 9.9 per game, but they get boards from everyone, thanks to their size and length. VT has Aluma down low, but he’s not a great rebounder. It’s Mutts who averages the most at 7.5 per game. If State can keep Mutts off the glass, then they’ll be on their way to winning this battle. And limiting second chance points for VT is big if you want to win.

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Afterglow
Afterglow
1 year ago

The long hiatus seemed to work for FSU but here’s to hoping we can get the win.

NC State Basketball

NC State’s Ebe Dowuona Enters Transfer Portal

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NC State Junior F/C Ebe Dowuona has entered the transfer portal, with two years of eligibility remaining.

This year, Ebe played in 30 games, averaging 1.7 points and 1.9 rebounds in 10.9 minutes per game. As a Sophomore, after the injury to Manny Bates in the first game of the season, Dowuona went on to start in 27 of the 31 games he played in, averaging 4.1 points and 4.1 rebounds per game.

I’m not shocked. I don’t blame Dowuona for wanting to find a place where he would get more playing time.

Nonetheless this is a hit to the Wolfpack’s front court. While he didn’t offer much on the offensive end, he continually altered shots on the defensive end.

Ernest Ross will be a Junior next year, and fans will likely get to see Freshman Isaiah Miranda for the first time after redshirting after arriving to Raleigh midseason. Greg Gantt will be a Redshirt Junior next season as well.

Other questions loom for the Wolfpack front court as well. Will DJ Burns and Jack Clark return for their final year of eligibility? Will Dusan Mahorcic be granted a medical waiver for an additional year of eligibility?

Time will tell.

We wish Ebe all the best!

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NC State Ranked in Top-25 in Men’s Basketball Attendance in 2022-23

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When it was all said and done, the NC State fans represented in 2022-23, ranking 20th amongst Division-1 teams in Men’s Basketball attendance. The Wolfpack ranked 4th in the ACC, behind UNC, Syracuse, and Virginia.

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Wolferetti: Feed me my crow. NC State lost to Creighton and I’m here to break it down (and admit I was wrong)

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I was wrong.

I thought this matchup was a good one for NC State. I watched a lot of Creighton this year and to me, they looked like a team that NC State could roll over. Let me explain why.

I knew a few things. I knew Nembhard was a PG that could get a little out of control if sped up. I knew with a little defense and physicality, Sheierman could be made uncomfortable. I knew Kalkbrenner was a good defender but was going to sink on the pick-and-roll to protect the basket.

Joiner’s pull up just wouldn’t fall

I figured that Joiner, the pull-up king would be taking that DJ Burns screen, getting to the middle, and pulling up as Kalkbrenner sank. I figured Smith would exploit this as well. Well, turns out Joiner was off and couldn’t get his pull-up game going and Smith, well yeah Smith did exploit this pretty well.

Burns didn’t look like Burns

The other thing I’d figure would happen is that I thought DJ Burns would really frustrate Kalkbrenner. If you’ve looked at games where Kalkbrenner had to face a really good, physical back-to-the-basket big man, those bigs usually had pretty good games in the scoring column.  I honestly don’t understand what happened to Burns in this one. Sure he got a few stupid early fouls, but before he even picked up a foul he looked out of it. With no double teams coming, Burns is usually calculated, slowly backing you down and hitting you with a flurry of head fakes, pump fakes or spins. If the big doesn’t bite, Burns can fade away, go with a contested hook shot, or pass out.

In this game, Burns looked sped up for some reason. The first time he got the ball he quickly backed in and threw up a hook that rattled out. Not awful, but usually you see him probe a little more. Then the next time he didn’t even look for contact, instead, he threw up a little floater that didn’t fall. While neither were awful shots, both were uncharacteristic of Burns. On top of those things, he looked absolutely gassed within minutes of coming in. My guess is that it was the altitude, but either way, it took a toll on him.

Whatever it was, it had him frustrated and he had two really bad fouls where he just shoved Kalkbrenner (he also had a phantom foul that was ridiculous). That said, it just wasn’t his night and this made NC State a lot more one-dimensional.

Casey Morsell came to play, but this NC State roster just wasn’t built to get a guy like him going, which is a shame. Jarkel Joiner was a huge reason why NC State got to where they got. His scoring ability, his speed and his toughness and leadership skill were huge. But Joiner is a scoring guard, and great basketball teams need POINT guards.

What is a point guard, and why can’t we have one?

A point guard isn’t just a guy who dribbles it down. It’s a guy who understands the games within the games. Guys who dictate pace, call plays (sets) and are essentially coaches on the floor. NC State and Kevin Keatts never had that this season, and while you can get a long way with scoring guards and good big men, you’ll never compete for anything of worth until you prioritize the skill set of a true point guard. I think that has been NC State’s problem for years, and I find it kind of insane that coach after coach falls into this idea of having a scoring guard play as a PG for more offense to get on the court.

This is no shot at Jarkel, either. The guy was one of my favorite players to watch on this team, but it just is what it is. He is a scoring guard who happens to be slotting in at PG. When you see Keatts bring in a guy whose priority is getting his guys open and dictating pace, then you can start to believe that this program may be close to arriving. Until then, sneaking into the tournament and hoping guys get hot hands is as good as it gets.

Look at Kihei Clark (Virginia’s PG). I know it’s not a great time to be talking about Clark, whose errant pass ended up losing the game for Virginia on Thursday, but look at Clark’s build.5’10, 170lbs. Look at his stats. Mid-30s shooting % from 3. Hight 70s from the FT line. The guy is nothing special when it comes to the numbers, but he’s a leader and he distributes the basketball to the right guys at the right time. Tony Bennett has started Clark for 4 years despite the fact that he’s coaching a team that is always in the running to win the ACC and won a national championship less than 5 years ago.  He could replace Clark with an elite, tall, athlete at any moment. But he doesn’t. Why? Because he understands what I’m talking about. It’s a puzzle that coaches need to put together, and one piece of that puzzle is a guy like this.

I was wrong about this game. I thought things would play out differently. They didn’t. I’m not blaming anyone in particular, but the makeup of this team vs. the makeup of teams that play deep into March are different. Maybe this is step one to getting there. We’ll have to see how the roster shapes up next season.

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VIDEO: NC State falls to Creighton 72-63 in first round of NCAA Tournament | Extended Highlights & Box Score

NC State came out flat, DJ Burns looked gassed, and for the most part, the Pack looked shell-shocked vs. Creighton from the opening tip. However, Terquavion Smith is excluded from all of that. He was amazing and in what was likely his final game at NC State, he kept the Pack afloat, dropping 32 points on 12-25 shooting. In the end, it wasn’t enough as their big man, 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner went for 31.

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NC State came out flat, DJ Burns looked gassed, and for the most part, the Pack looked shell-shocked vs. Creighton from the opening tip. However, Terquavion Smith is excluded from all of that. He was amazing and in what was likely his final game at NC State, he kept the Pack afloat, dropping 32 points on 12-25 shooting. In the end, it wasn’t enough as their big man, 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner went for 31.

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