NC State Wolfpack @ North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 2:00pm
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ACCN
Line: UNC -7.5

This is going to be a tough matchup for the Pack. Carolina comes in at 14-6 (6-3 in ACC) and NC State struggling at 10-11 (3-7 in ACC). Ken Pom predicts that NC State loses by 9 and ESPN gives the Heels an 83% chance of victory.

The Pack has really had a strange season. Most of their losses have been by 2 possession or less, but they’ve had a few stinkers and a few games where they looked almost unbeatable. Most of the big losses and big wins can be attributed to the types of teams the Pack was playing.

NC State really struggles against teams that can shoot it well and have at least one decent big man. This is because they really struggle with their interior defense. Ebe Dowuona has been a serviceable replacement for Manny Bates, but there are certain bigs that he just really struggles against. When the Wolfpack guards are forced to drop down and help out, shooters get left open, and when that happens, NC State loses basketball games.

What’s UNC been doing all season?

The Heels have 2 bigs that are really good.
Armando Bacot is putting up big numbers this year. He’s a 6’10, 24olb monster in the middle. He’s averaging 16 points and 12 boards while shooting 58% from the floor. Meanwhile, Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek is 6’9, 230lbs and putting up 13 points and 6 boards while shooting almost 37% from 3. This is going to be a problem for NC State. Dowuona is going to need help on Bacot and Hellems is going to need help on Manek. This is going to force the Pack to send help at times, and thus, leave shooters.

Carolina is shooting it pretty well
Caleb Love and RJ Davis are pretty good guards. Love is likely a 2nd round draft pick and Davis is emerging as a scoring guard as well. Love is averaging 15 points, 3 boards, and 3.4 assists. He makes UNC go and lately has been hot from beyond the arc. He’s shooting 42% from long range this season.

Davis isn’t far behind, averaging 13.4ppg, 4 boards, and 3.3 assists. He is also shooting 40.2% from 3. And add to the fact that Manek can pop out and hit the 3, and you end up having a team that’s 5th in the ACC in 3pt %.

Carolina can rebound. 
UNC is #1 in the ACC in rebounding. Most of that is thanks to Bacot, who is pulling down 12 per game. In fact, he has 37 rebounds over his past two games. The guy is going to eat up the boards against Dowuona.

After Bacot, it drops off, but they have four guys averaging over 4. So they do it mostly with team rebounding.

They don’t have a ton of fight in them
This UNC team has talent, but they don’t have the type of fight they had under Roy Williams. Their own fanbase has been on social media complaining about them laying lackadaisical and unfocused. They lost by a combined 50 points just a weeks ago to Miami and Wake Forest. In both games, they got down and really seemed to just wither. However, they’ve come out of that funk with two straight double-digit wins over BC and VT.

Keys to the game for NC State

Jericole Hellems is key
Hellems is going to be guarded by Brady Manek. This is a matchup to watch. Manek is likely going to take Hellems inside on defense and try to post him up. He’ll have the advantage there, however, Manek is slow and pretty lumbering. Hellems is going to have a big advantage on the offensive end. He’ll get his share of open shots, and if he can hit those, Manek will be forced to press up, opening up driving lanes for the senior.

Can Terquavion Smith get it going?
When Smith gets hot, NC State seems to win. The last two games Smith has gone for 20, NC State has won (UVA, Louisville). The time before that, they took FSU to the wire, losing by just 2. He also put up 21 in the loss to Purdue, which was an OT game, meaning it was tied at the end of regulation. The point is, when Smith goes for 20, NC State either wins, or comes REALLY close.

In fact, the only time he went for 20 and NC State laid an egg, was against Wright St. which happened to be Seabrons worst game of the season (10 points, 4-13 shooting).

Dereon Seabron vs. Leaky Black
Wow. This is going to be an interesting matchup. Black is 6’8, Seabron is 6’7. Both are wirey, oversized guards who are athletic. We think Seabron is going to dominate this matchup due to his physicality, but he’ll be driving into Bacot, so will he be able to finish and put up big numbers? That’s the question. Carolina has had trouble stopping the drive, and Seabron has been atop the entire nation in basket pressure.

Stop Bacot
I don’t know how Keatts plans to do it, but we don’t really have a great idea here. Double down and they’ll get open looks. Leave him and he’ll eat up Dowuona down there. Bigs have been a problem all season, especially thick, physical ones. Bacot happens to be all of the above. Slowing him down is a key to winning, but with State’s track record inside, it’s a hard sell for us.