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NC State Basketball

Trusted “Dance Card” formula gives NC State 99.9% chance of a Tourney bid

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The the “Dance Card” formula was developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University and is designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

This formula has correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%).

According to the “Dance Card,” NC State is ranked #42 and has a 99.9% chance of getting a bid as of February 4th.

So, what changed? Did the Notre Dame win really vault NC State into a near ‘tournament lock”?

 

Nope. As we explained after the UNC game, everyone was so laser-focused on RPI and NC State’s weak SOS that they were shelving some of the biggest deciders out there. The Pack has a neutral court win against Arizona. They have home wins against Clemson and Duke and they have a road win over UNC and they had a really good chance of getting to 9 ACC wins (or more). All they had to do is continue to play the way they have been playing and they were in.

Interesting what happens when you really dig into the stats and take in the whole picture instead of cherry picking stats that fit your “Why NC State might not make the dance” narrative (as some decided to do after the UNC win).  In fact, if you had taken in the full statistical profile of NC State after the UNC win, the narrative was trending much more towards the “Why NC State is closing in on locking up an NCAA bid in a season where everyone and their mother picked them to finish in the bottom 4”

Now of course, 99.9% is not 100%. Any of these teams could fall apart. Shoot, some of these 100% teams could lose out and fail to get a bid. But as of now, with the information that’s out there, with the current statistical trends, NC State is closing in on being a lock for the NCAA tournament.

A big week this week could punch their ticket.

NC State Basketball

The Roster for the NC State Men’s Basketball Team is all but Set Heading into 2024-25

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NC State does have 1 scholarship available, and could still add a player out of the Transfer Portal. With that being said, the roster for the Men’s Basketball team is pretty much set for the 2024-25 season.

Non-graduates had to enter the Transfer Portal by April 30th, and Graduates had to enter by May 1st. Jayden Taylor and Michael O’Connell both made public announcements that they were returning, but the closure of entrance to the Portal means that Breon Pass, Ben Middlebrooks, Dennis Parker Jr. and MJ Rice are all set to return next season.

In a world where the Transfer Portal has all but become free agency in College Basketball, with some players switching schools on an annual basis, it’s encouraging that Kevin Keatts not only recruited a Top-10 Transfer Class, but also recruited a majority of the eligible players to stay. Three players that could transfer entered the Portal (I’m not counting Mohamed Diarra in these numbers, who opted to go pro), while 6 opted to continue running with the Wolfpack.

As a result, below is a breakdown of the roster for the NC State Men’s Basketball team heading into 2024-25, realizing the Wolfpack could still add one player (this team is deep).

1 year of Eligibility 

Guard Michael O’Connell
Guard Marcus Hill
Guard Breon Pass
Guard/Forward Jayden Taylor
Forward/Guard Dontrez Styles
Forward Ben Middlebrooks
Center Brandon Huntley-Hatfield

2 Years of Eligibility

Guard/Forward MJ Rice
Guard Mike James
Guard Jordan Snell (Walk-On)
Guard KJ Keatts (Walk-On)

3 Years of Eligibility 

Guard/Forward Dennis Parker Jr.

4 Years of Eligibility 

Guard Paul McNeil
Guard Trey Parker

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NC State Basketball

NC State’s Men’s Basketball 2024 Transfer Class Ranks in the Top-10 Nationally

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NC State’s Men’s Basketball team has picked up 4 players from the Transfer Portal this offseason, and the class ranks 10th nationally according to ON3, and 15th nationally according to 247Sports.

ON3

247Sports

NC State’s 2024 4-Man Transfer Class

Center Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (Louisville)

Guard/Forward Dontez Styles (Georgetown)

Guard Mike James (Louisville)

Guard Marcus Hill (Bowling Green)

NC State still has a chance to move up in the rankings. East Carolina Power Forward Ezra Ausar just wrapped up an Official Visit to NC State, and things are looking good for the Wolfpack. ON3 ranks Ausar as the #67 overall player in the Portal, and the #15 Power Forward.

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NC State Basketball

WATCH: Andy Katz’s Offseason Convo with NC State’s Kevin Keatts

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Andy Katz is beginning to make his rounds for his Offseason Convo series, and he took the time to meet with NC State Head Coach Kevin Keatts.

In their conversation, Keatts talked about what this run has meant to Raleigh and the Wolfpack fans, how it has helped sell the program the way it deserves to be in recruiting, and even how it helped and hurt in the world of the Transfer Portal.

Check out the conversation below:

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NC State Basketball

Guard Mike O’Connell Announces He Will Play His Final Year of Eligibility at NC State

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Guard Michael O’Connell announced today that he will be playing his final year of eligibility at NC State next season.

 

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A post shared by Michael O’Connell (@michaeloc_12)

Today was the final day graduate players could enter the Portal.

This past season, O’Connell averaged 5.7 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists for the Wolfpack, starting 22 of the 41 games he played in.

O’Connell took over as NC State’s starting Point Guard on January 30th in a win against Miami.

He only scored in double figures in 9 of his 41 games this season, but 6 of those came in postseason play (5 in the ACC Tournament). O’Connell took things to another level in the ACC Tournament, playing aggressive on the offensive end, looking for his shot, and attacking the rim.

NC State played it’s best basketball of the season when O’Connell was running the show. He ranked 3rd in the ACC in Assist/Turnover Ratio (2.5).

Heading into next season, with a lineup filled with new faces, having the calming presence of a veteran leader like O’Connell is reassuring.

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