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SI Projects a Monster Season From Trea Turner

Published

6 years ago

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Former NC State All-American Shortstop Trea Turner is technically entering his 4th year in the majors. In 2015, Turner was called up at the end of the year for 22 games. In 2016, Turner spent the first two months of the season in the minors before being called up for his official rookie season. Last year he lost two months with a broken wrist.

There is no guarantee for a full season, but Sports Illustrated took a stab at what it could look like, and it looks monstrous.

Helpfully, Turner’s 2016 and 2017 add up to about full season. He played in 171 games across those two seasons, amassing 771 plate appearances. That’s about 150 more plate appearances than we’d expect for a No. 2 hitter over a full season, but it’s certainly close enough for the sake of comparison. Turner slashed .309/.351/.501 with 24 homers, 79 steals, 128 runs and 85 RBI the last two years. If we average it to 162 games, the counting stats come out to 23 homers, 75 steals, 122 runs and 81 RBI. Turner has earned every bit of his first-round ADP.

Now, a 23-homer, 75-steal, 122-run, 81-RBI season would be an incredible feat. You don’t need me to tell you that. But past isn’t always prologue, and no one should be locking in those numbers as floors for Turner. Let’s bring them all down a bit, and make them a little easier to achieve. It seems fair to project Turner for 20 homers, 60 steals, 100 runs and 70 RBI in a full 162-game season. Steamer has him at 17, 50, 96 and 66, but also has him playing just 139 games. If it gave him 162, or even 152, he’d likely hit all those thresholds in one of the most sophisticated projection systems.

So, how many times has a 20-homer, 60-steal, 100-run, 70-RBI season happened in MLB history? Four. Who owns those seasons? Joe Morgan and Rickey Henderson. Morgan did it in 1973 and 1976, while Henderson did it in 1985 and 1986. What does a full season of Turner look like? If he continues the trajectory he set for himself the last two seasons, it looks like Joe Morgan in his prime. That’s pretty good. (SI)

Morgan and Henderson were once in a generation caliber players. Even amateur baseball historians know their last names. Maybe years from now they will remember the name Turner in the same way.

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Matthew is Publisher and Co-Owner of Pack Insider. He is also the Lead Pastor of The Point Church in Cary, NC.

NC State Baseball

#17 NC State’s Late Game Heroics Strike Again, Defeating #8 Wake Forest 9-6 to Complete the Sweep

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32 mins ago

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May 18, 2024

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#17 NC State’s late game heroics continued this afternoon, defeating #8 Wake Forest 9-6 in dramatic fashion late in the game for the 3rd straight game, completing the sweep of the Demon Deacons.

With the game tied 6-6, the Wolfpack scored 3 runs in the Bottom of the 8th inning, that would end up being the winning runs. With 2 outs, Freshman Alex Sosa scored on a throwing error, and Senior 1st Baseman Garrett Pennington followed that up with a 2 RBI Double.

Senior Starting Pitcher Logan Whitaker gave up 5 runs (1 unearned) in 4 innings pitched, striking out 5, while walking none. Freshman Ryan Marohn was fabulous in relief, giving up only 1 earned run in 4 innings pitched, striking out 4. Marohn has been extremely dependable as a True Freshman. After picking up the Win today, he boasts a 4-2 record with a 3.60 ERA.

Sophomore Derrick Smith came in to close things out in the Bottom of the 9th, and in electric fashion, he struck out all three batters to pick up his 5th Save of the season.

Sosa had himself a day, putting the Pack on the board in the Bottom of the 2nd with an RBI Single, which was followed up by a Solo Home Run in the Bottom of the 6th inning.

Pennington and Junior Catcher Jacob Cozart both had 3 RBI’s this afternoon. Pennington not only hit his 2 RBI Double in the Bottom of the 8th, but he also hit an RBI Single in the Bottom of the 5th. Cozart hit a 3-run bomb in the bottom of the 6th.

Sophomore Center Fielder Eli Serrano III and Senior 3rd Baseman Alec Makerewicz also had multi-hit performances. Serrano III was 2 for 4 with an RBI and a Run, while A-Mak was 2 for 1 with a Run.

With the victory, NC State secured the #3 seed in this upcoming weeks 2024 ACC Tournament, and more than likely locked up a spot as a Regional Host in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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NC State Baseball

With a Win Today, #17 NC State Will Secure a Top-4 Spot in the 2024 ACC Baseball Tournament

Published

8 hours ago

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May 18, 2024

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After last night’s dramatic walk-off victory over #8 Wake Forest, #17 NC State is 17-11 in ACC play, and if the season were to end today, the Wolfpack would a Top-4 seed in next weeks ACC Tournament in Charlotte, North Carolina.

UNC has locked up the #1 seed (21-9), and Clemson has locked up the #2 seed (19-10)

NC State and FSU are tied with conference records of 17-11, but as things currently stand, the Wolfpack would be the #3 seed over FSU. NC State currently holds the edge over the Seminoles according to tie breaker rules. In head-to-head games, the two teams split. The Wolfpack hold the edge due to having a better Divisional record.

Here are the scenarios for the Pack heading into the regular season finale against Wake Forest this afternoon:

NC State will secure the #3 spot if they win today in the series finale against Wake Forest.

If NC State loses, FSU loses, and UVA loses, NC State will secure the #3 seed.

If NC State loses, FSU loses, and UVA wins, NC State would secure the #4 seed.

If NC State loses, FSU wins and UVA loses, the Wolfpack will secure the #4 seed.

If NC State loses, FSU wins and UVA wins, the Wolfpack will fall out of the Top-4, and be the #5 seed.

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NC State Baseball

NC State Hosting a Regional in the 2024 NCAA Tournament is Looking Likely

Published

11 hours ago

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May 18, 2024

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After beating #8 Wake Forest in walk-off fashion for the 2nd straight night, securing a series victory over the Demon Deacons, #17 NC State is looking like they are in a prime position to be a Regional Host in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

The Wolfpack have an overall record of 31-19, and rank 3rd overall in the ACC with a 17-11 record.

As things currently stand, NC State ranks 15th in the RPI heading into their final game of the regular season.

Their resume is juicy, with Series Victories over 4 Top-10 teams (Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson & UVA), and 5 Top-12 teams (UNC). That’s not including the fact that they split a 2-game series against a Top-10 team in FSU.

With a win today in the series finale, there shouldn’t even be a debate.

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NC State Baseball

#17 NC State Walks-It-Off for the 2nd Night in a Row Against #8 Wake Forest, Winning 2-1

Published

20 hours ago

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May 18, 2024

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For the 2nd night in a row, #17 NC State defeated #8 Wake Forest in walk-off fashion, when Senior Noah Soles drew a Walk with the bases loaded.

Sophomore Dominic Fritton gave up only 1 earned run in 4.2 innings, striking out 5. The bullpen handled business after Fritton left the game. Sophomore Andrew Shaffner and Freshman Jacob Dudan combined for 4.1 innings of no-hit baseball. Combined, the NC State pitching staff held the Demon Deacons to only 3 hits.

Junior Chase Nixon was the source of the only other Wolfpack RBI via a Single in the 6th inning, driving home his brother Luke.

NC State clinched a series victory against Wake Forest for the first time since 2021, and the first time at home since 2018.

The Wolfpack should have locked up a spot as a Regional Host in the upcoming 2024 NCAA Tournament with a series victory over #8 Wake Forest. NC State now has 4 series victories against Top-10 teams, and 5 Top-12 teams.

NC State will close out the regular season tomorrow in the series finale against Wake Forest at 3pm.

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