Ok, so we are getting hammered with scenario questions for the final ACC standings now that the unthinkable happened.

Two nights ago Duke fell to Virginia Tech and last night UNC lost at the buzzer on their home floor to Miami. Not many people even laid out that scenario. So what does it mean and how could it affect NC State?

Hold your hats, folks, we’re about to take your mind on a ride.

NC State wins out, finishes 12-6

This means NC State would have won out over Georgia Tech and Louisville. As we’ve explained a number of times, no matter what happens to anyone else in this scenario, NC State would take 3rd place in the ACC

We know you’ll ask, so we are going to explain to you why this is.

It’s because if Duke beats UNC then Duke ends 13-5 (2nd in the ACC). UNC would then fall to 11-7, which would be a game back of NC State, obvioiusly NC State would finish 3rd. The only other team that COULD be tied with NC State in this scenario, is Clemson (since they have 2 games left) and NC State owns the tie-breaker over Clemson (because State is 1-0 over Duke). NC State would finish 3rd in the ACC.

Now, if UNC were to beat Duke, things get slightly more interesting. That would mean UNC, Duke, and State all finish 12-6. UNC would win that tiebreaker based on group record, take 2nd, and NC State would take 3rd. You could also add Clemson to the 12-6 group if they win out. That would be a 4-way log jam, all with the same record vying for 2nd place.  To break this tie you need to look at group records. UNC holds a 4-2 group record (66.67%  winning %), NC State is next with a 3-2 group record (60% winning %), Clemson comes in with a 2-3 group record (40% winning %) and Duke is last with a 1-3 group record (25% winning %).

This means UNC would be 2nd, NC State would still be 3rd in the ACC, but Clemson would sneak ahead of Duke into 4th and Duke would be 5th.

If Duke beats UNC and Clemson doesn’t win out in this scenario, then it’s NC State and UNC tied for 3rd, and NC State wins that tie-breaker because of winning% over Duke. That would give NC State 3rd place in the ACC over Carolina.

If NC State wins one of two, finishes 11-7

This is where things get kind of crazy.

This means NC State wins one of their final two games. Then you have to factor in UNC playing Duke this weekend.

If Duke wins:

It would mean NC State and UNC are tied, but there are other teams involved… First, lets talk Clemson. If Clemson loses out, they are out of the picture in this scenario. Then there is Virginia Tech and Miami. With their wins this week, they both sit at 10-7 and they play each other this weekend (I know, it’s crazy). This means one of those two teams WILL finish 11-7.

In that case, you would have a 3-way tie for 3rd between UNC, NC State, and Virginia Tech/Miami. In this situation, they would go to group record. With Virginia Tech/Miami, either one would win this tie-breaker, giving them the 3rd spot. NC State would come in next and take the ACC’s 4th slot, moving UNC down to 5th.

Now if we stick with the Duke beating UNC scenario, and Clemson wins out, things change. The Tigers would have 12 wins and they would sit alone in 3rd place in the ACC. That would mean NC State, UNC and either Virginia Tech or Miami would be tied for 4th. The tie-breaker for this would be based on group record and, once again, go to Virginia Tech or Miami. So they would get 4th. NC State would still beat out UNC and would be 5th, sending the Heels to 6th.

Now let’s say the same Duke beating UNC situation happens and Clemson loses one of their next two. If that happens and Virginia Tech beats Miami, then you have UNC, NC State, Clemson and Virginia Tech all tied for 3rd place. This one is crazy. Virginia Tech would win it based on group record and get 3rd, NC State would come in next and get 4th in the ACC, while UNC would be kicked to 5th and Clemson to 6th.

But if that same Duke beating UNC, but Clemson losing one of their next two happens, and Miami beats Virginia Tech, things change. In that case, Miami wins out on group recrod, getting 3rd in the ACC and Clemson actually sneaks into 4th. This moves NC State to 5th in the ACC and UNC to 6th.

Basically, here is the TLDR (too long, didn’t read) version:
If NC State finishes 11-7 and Duke wins, the Pack will either be 4th or 5th in the ACC.

Now, let’s do that all over again, but with UNC beating Duke… ready?

If UNC wins:

This would mean Duke, UNC sit tied for 2nd in the ACC at 12-6, ahead of NC State. If this happens and Clemson wins out, then they would also be 12-6 tied with UNC and Duke. In that situation, no matter if  Virginia Tech or Miami win (one will be 11-7 as well, and both own the tie-breaker over State) the standings would go UNC in 2nd, Duke in 3rd, Clemson in 4th (based on group record), Virginia Tech or Miami in 5th and NC State falling to 6th in the ACC (based on head to head vs. V.Tech or Miami).

If UNC beats Duke and Clemson wins one of their next two, then things change. If this happens and Miami beats Virginia Tech, then UNC gets 2nd, Duke gets 3rd, Clemson would be tied with NC State and Miami and would win on group record. That would mean Clemson gets 4th. Miami is next up in group record, so they get 5th and NC State slips to 6th in the ACC.

However, If UNC beats Duke and Clemson wins one of their next two and Virginia Tech beats Miami you have a different outcome. Here you would have UNC in 2nd still, Duke in 3rd, Virginia Tech tied with NC State and Clemon and winning that group record, putting them in 4th. The Pack is up next in that group so NC State would get 5th in the ACC, with Clemson falling to 6th.

OK, so what if UNC beats Duke, but Clemson loses out? If that happens, no matter if Virginia Tech or Miami wins, NC State falls to 5th in the ACC because of group record.

Here is the TLDR (too long, didn’t read) version:
If NC State finishes 11-7 and UNC wins, the Pack will either be 5th or 6th in the ACC.

If NC State loses out, finishes 10-8

Hasn’t your brain had enough already? This gets way too crazy and has endless scenarios which we just don’t have time to work out. We just aren’t going to go here right now. Let’s let the next few days play out and things will become a little more clear.