NC State Basketball
Predictive Formula says NC State 2nd most likely to pull off upset in Round 1
I’m going to give it to you straight, this is about as unique and in-depth a formula as I’ve ever seen from FiveThirtyEight. If you aren’t aware, FiveThirtyEight is an ESPN owned sports and politics driven analytics site. It’s basically a home base for number junkies.
Yesterday, they posted an article, showcasing a formula they’ve been using to project upsets, but it’s not your typical algorithm. It was actually inspired by results from image recognition. If you want the dirty details of how it calculates this stuff, then just give it a read, but basically, they say it is trained to find upsets using team-to-team similarities instead of raw statistics such as offensive rebounds or turnover rates.
The take away for you the NC State fan is the Wolfpack scored out as the 2nd most likely team to pull off an upset in round 1.
They call this the Localized Upset Classification model (LUC, pronounced “Luke”) and here is their blurb on how it has performed over the past 4 years (that’s how long it’s existed
The early returns are promising. For those four tournaments, LUC scored a precision of 70.3 percent while also identifying 59.4 percent of all upsets, including those of No. 9 seeds over No. 8 seeds. The model had some risky calls that worked in its favor. It gave the 2014 Mercer team a 57.1 percent chance of beating No. 3 Duke. Two years later, it gave No. 13 Hawaii a 55.4 percent chance of beating Cal and No. 14 Stephen F. Austin a 61.5 percent chance of beating West Virginia. Any of these picks would be enough to catapult LUC to the top of most office-pool standings in the first week. (538)
So basically of the upsets, it chooses they are right 70% of the time. That’s the number State fans should care about because NC State is not only on that list of chosen upsets but 2nd on it, giving them an even higher probability.
ECU Transfer Power Forward Ezra Ausar (6’9″/240) was on an Official Visit to NC State yesterday, and according to analysts at ON3 and 247Sports, things are trending in the right direction for the Wolfpack.
Jamie Shaw of ON3 submitted a prediction for Ausar to eventually commit to NC State yesterday morning.
Cory Smith of 247Sports submitted a crystal ball projection for Ausar to run with the Wolfpack this morning.
Ausar just wrapped up his Sophomore season in Greenville, averaging 11.4 points and 4.7 rebounds, shooting 51.4% from the field. As a Freshman, he was named to the AAC All-Freshman Team, averaging 9.8 points and 5.3 rebounds.
Ausar is a consensus 4-Star prospect in the Transfer Portal, and ON3 ranks him as the #60 overall player in the Portal and the #10 Power Forward.
Originally from Atlanta, Ausar played his Senior Season of High School at Liberty Heights Athletic Institute in Charlotte, North Carolina. ON3 ranked Ausar as a 4-Star prospect coming out of high school, the #94 overall player nationally, and the #2 player in the state of North Carolina.
Ausar has visited Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, met over Zoom with Georgetown, and had an in-home visit with Utah. John Calipari and his staff at Arkansas have been in touch with Ausar, as well as Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, West Virginia, Iowa State and St. John’s. (Link)
Ausar has 2 years of eligibility remaining, and NC State currently has 1 scholarship remaining.
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USC Power Forward Brandon Gardner (6’8″/215) listed NC State in his Top-6 along with Jacksonville, San Francisco, Arizona St., Texas A&M and Arizona.
Gardner was a 4-star prospect in the 2023 recruiting class, with Rivals ranking him as the #74 overall player nationally, and ESPN ranking him as the #2 player in the state of New York (Christ the King, New York City). He is originally from Waynesboro, Georgia. Prior to playing for Christ the King, Gardner played for Word of God Academy, so Raleigh is familiar to him.
Kevin Keatts and his NC State Coaching Staff offered Gardner when he was in high school.
Prior to committing to USC, Gardner was committed to St. John’s.
This past season Gardner only played in 4 minutes in 1 game for the Trojans, making it a redshirt season.
Gardner will have 4 years of eligibility wherever he lands.