I’m going to go ahead and bet that you haven’t watched a Colorado State game all season.

Don’t worry. We hadn’t either. But since the Rams victory over Buffalo last week, I made the tough decisions to substitute binge-watching ‘The Crown’ (it’s my wife’s turn to choose a show), in exchange for hours of Colorado State basketball replays.

Unfortunate twist: Colorado State basketball is just as, if not more, predictable and boring. However, that doesn’t mean that they’re bad, in fact, there are a few reasons Colorado State could cause problems for NC State.

But first, let’s take a look at what the Rams have done this season.

Where did they finish? Who have they beaten?

Colorado State finished the season 19-6. That was good enough for 3rd in the Mountain West Conference. The two teams ahead of them, San Diego State and Utah State both were NCAA Tournament teams. Both, however, lost their first-round games. SDSU to Syracuse and Utah State to Texas Tech.

The Rams were 1-1 vs. San Diego State and 1-2 vs. Utah State on the season. Other than that, they really don’t have any significant wins.

What is their style of play?

Their style of play is…how do I describe it?…very mid-major-ish.

By that I mean, they run a spread offense, they use a lot of screens to get their guys open, they have a couple big, not-so-athletic guys in the middle that they like to pound it down to, and they can shoot it.

For the season, they have about the same offensive efficiency as NC State and shoot close to the same percentage from outside. Colorado State, however, has converted better in the paint.

Now, do remember, Davidson on paper looked like a tough matchup for the Wolfpack, but as we mentioned multiple times, Davidson did most of that damage against smaller, weaker teams. So how do these stats translate when you take on bigger, stronger teams that have played an entire season against top-tier competition?

Ask Davidson. Usually you can throw these stats out the window as predictors.

As for shooting, the Rams aren’t shy. They’ve shot 140 more 3s than NC State this season and have hit 36% of their tries. NC State, for comparison, has hit 36.5%. They do have 3 guys that shoot the 3 better than anyone on the NC State roster, however only one of those guys is in their main rotation.

Which brings us to….

Who do they have?

The main guy that NC State needs to worry bout is David Roddy. This is the 6’5, 253lb beast we were talking about last week.

Roddy isn’t exceptionally quick, but he’s very agile and has great hands, footwork, and body control for his size. Watching him was like watching Zion Williamson minus the insane athleticism and length.

Now, I’m not saying that Roddy isn’t athletic, he is athletic for his size, but he’s just not ‘game-changing’ athletic. But the style of play is similar. He likes to catch and face up and attack, and it’s his frame that helps him succeed in scoring around the hoop. He is the one guy that NC State is going to have to figure out, since they haven’t faced anyone like him, and he’s a mismatch problem for anyone on the Wolfpack roster.

After Roddy, the Rams really rely on their guards. Isiah Stevens and Kendall Moore are both small and quick. They come in at 6 feet and 5’10 respectively and Stevens is more of a shooter/scorer than Moore is.

These are those pesky little guards that used to really bother NC State in previous years. They were too quick our bigger guards, they’d get in the middle and they’d create havoc. But, this year is different. Braxton Beverly is actually a lockdown defender when he gets to guard someone his size, and Shakeel Moore is probably State’s best on-ball defender. So if they want to go small, State can match them.

However, with Seabron and Hayes, you also can see how these guys react to being guarded by longer, taller guards. With Manny Bates in the middle, you can have the occasional blow-by and avoid an easy bucket. Meanwhile, on offense, you can impose your will with your size advantage. Either way, NC State has options.

Inside, Colorado State plays an undersized forward (6’6 Adam Thislewood) and a 6’10 big (James Moors). Neither one of these guys are very athletic and Moors will have a very hard time maneuvering against Bates. Like with Davidson, the Rams will get it inside to Moors, who will back you down and shoot a hook over the top of you. We’ll see how well that works out against one of the top shot-blockers in the nation.

As for Thislewood, he’s basically the mid-major version of Jericole Hellems (Undersized, strong, good shooter, etc). He isn’t as physical as Hellems, so he’ll float a lot more and look to get some open 3s, but NC State has options against him too. With Hellems likely on Roddy, they can go bigger with Funderubrk on him, or smaller with Seabron on him. This will be a matchup to watch as well.

So what are the keys to the game for NC State and how what do the numbers predict? We’ll have those answers and more coming up in our coverage of the NIT, continuing today through Thursday.

Scout the Rams for yourself: