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NC State Baseball’s Scenarios and Odds for ACCT Seeding

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3 years ago

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State finishes off their regular season this weekend with a three-game series against Florida State. We took a look at all the scenarios and odds for State’s ACC Tournament seeding. Again, this tournament is pool/round robin based, so please see bracket at bottom (i.e. the difference between 3rd and 6th seed is literally who bats last, as they are the same group, in a neutral location).

Should be noted these are rough projections, since this weekend’s series are actually very competitive matchups. The best chance for sweeps are Notre Dame over VT and Pitt over Wake Forest, both of which don’t alter State’s path much. We’re betting on LOTS of 2-1 splits.

 

Overall Seeding

#1 -#2 Seed – 0% – Congrats Notre Dame, you’re regular season ACC Baseball Champs. Even if State sweeps and ND loses out to VT, there is no way they can be caught. Then the Coastal Champ will take the other top seed

#3 Seed – 45% – The most likely seed at the moment. If State and GT sweep, State is #3. This would also be the outcome if State goes 2-1 against FSU and GT sweeps or is 2-1 against UNC and Louisville goes 2-1 against Miami. All matchups are really good, if you’re a general baseball fan, but the chance of any one team sweeping is hard to lock in.

#4 Seed – 22% – State drops one but they stay put as leaders of Pool D.

#5 Seed – 16.5% – State drops one with others sweeping or they lose two and ND and FSU are officially ahead with a good chance of L’Ville, GT/UNC and Pitt moving past them.

#6 Seed – 5% – State drops two, with FSU, Louisville/Miami (needs sweep), GT/UNC (needs Sweep) and Pitt jumping ahead.

#7 Seed – 1% – State is swept, with FSU, Louisville/Miami, GT/UNC and Pitt jumping ahead.

#8 Seed – 1% – State is swept, with mix of any number of occurrences.

#9 Seed – 1% – The wheels fall and State is swept, with VT, UVA, Clemson and UNC closing out with sweeps.

#10-#12 Seed – 0.5% – Well that’s comforting.

 

Pool Placement

Pool A: -1%
Pool B: 1%
Pool C: 59%
Pool D: 40%

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NC State Baseball

#20 NC State Upsets #7 FSU 8-7 in Game 1 Down in Tallahassee

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5 hours ago

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May 3, 2024

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#20 NC State upset #7 Florida St. 8-7 in the series opener down in Tallahassee this evening.

Freshman Cooper Consiglio was the hero on the mound this evening, coming in after Senior Sam Highfill and Sophomore Shane Van Dam, pitching 4.1 innings, while giving up only 1 earned run and striking out 5. It was probably Consiglio’s best performance of his collegiate career, marking the first time he’s ever pitched 4 innings, and given up 1 run or less. He now is 2-4 on the year with a 5.66 ERA.

Sophomore Derrick Smith picked up his 4th Save of the year, failing to give up a hit in 1.2 innings pitched, while striking out 3.

Junior Catcher Jacob Cozart got things started off for the Wolfpack in the Top of the 2nd hitting his 9th Home Run in the past 9 games, and his 15th of the year.

Sophomore 2nd Baseman Matt Heavner led the Pack with 2 RBI’s tonight. The first followed Cozart’s bomb, hitting a Single in the Top of the 2nd that scored Sophomore Left Fielder Luke Nixon. Then Junior Chase Nixon hit a Single, and 2 NC State runners scored due to a wild throw.

Then in the Top of the 3rd, Heavner knocked in another run with a Sac Bunt, that scored Luke Nixon.

Then Sophomore Center Fielder Eli Serrano III hit an RBI Single that scored Chase Nixon, giving the Wolfpack a 6-2 lead.

In the Top of the 6th, Senior 3rd Baseman Alec Makarewicz hit a solo Home Run, his 18th of the season.

In the same inning, Junior Shortstop Brandon Butterworth scored on a wild pitch, giving the Wolfpack their 8th run of the evening.

Senior starting Pitcher Sam Highfill was only able to pitch 2 innings, giving up 2 earned runs. Sophomore Shane Van Dam continues to struggle in relief, giving up 3 earned runs in 1 inning. His ERA is now up to 5.17. Van Dam left the game with an injury, which might have led to his exit.

The Wolfpack and the Seminoles will play Game 2 tomorrow at 7pm.

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NC State Baseball

NC State Baseball Bracketology Report Heading Into Series Against FSU

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2 days ago

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May 2, 2024

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#20 NC State will head down to Tallahassee tomorrow for a 3-game series against #7 FSU. Before they do, here’s a look at where NC State is projected to land in the 2024 NCAA Tournament as things currently stand.

Last week, both D1Baseball and Baseball America projected the Wolfpack to play as a #2 seed in the Greenville Regional (ECU), with the former projecting the Pirates to be a #6 seed, and the latter projecting them to be a #8 seed.

This week, D1Baseball has NC State as a #2 seed in the Lexington Regional, with Kentucky as a #5 seed. Baseball America still has the Wolfpack as a #2 seed in the Greenville Region, with the Pirates still sitting as a #8 seed.

D1Baseball

Baseball America

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NC State Baseball

#20 NC State Loses 4-5 to UNCW, Losing 5th Straight Midweek Game

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3 days ago

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April 30, 2024

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#20 NC State lost to UNC-Wilmington 4-5 this evening at home, losing their 5th straight midweek game. The Wolfpack were swept by the Seahawks this year, ironically losing 4-5 down in Wilmington on April 9th.

Freshman Ryan Marohn got the starting nod, and he was excellent, giving up 1 earned run in 5 innings pitched, striking out 7. It was arguably his best start since his collegiate debut against VCU in the opening series.

Sophomore Shane Van Dam was Mr. Reliable through much of the season, but he hasn’t had his best stuff as of late. This evening, he faced four batters, hitting 2, walking another, and surrendering a hit to the other. Van Dam failed to record an out, and gave up 3 earned runs. Heading into the UNC game back on April 18th, Van Dam had a 2.63 ERA. After the past 4 appearances, his ERA has shot up to 3.96.

Freshman Jacob Dudan settled things down, pitching 4 scoreless innings, giving up only 1 hit, while striking out 5.

Unfortunately, Sophomore Derrick Smith allowed the Seahawks to score a run in the Top of the 10th, which was enough for the opposing team to leave Raleigh with a win, with NC State failing to score a run in the final 5 frames.

Junior Jacob Cozart continues an insane power surge, hitting two more Home Runs tonight. Cozart has hit 7 Home Runs in the past 6 games.

Cozart now has 14 Home Runs on the year. His previous career high was 11.

Senior 1st Baseman Garrett Pennington also hit a Solo Home Run, his 11th bomb of the year.

On Friday, the Wolfpack will head down to Tallahassee for a 3-game series against #7 Florida State.

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NC State Outfielder Josh Hogue Out for Remainder of the Season

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5 days ago

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April 29, 2024

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NC State will be without Sophomore Right Fielder Josh Hogue for the remainder of the season. Hogue unfortunately suffered a fractured leg due to a collision with Center Fielder Eli Serrano III on Saturday, with both players diving for a ball in the outfield.

Hogue will have to undergo surgery, and he is expected to be out 4 months.

This is a huge loss for the Wolfpack. Hogue has been batting 3rd in NC State’s lineup, with the 3rd best batting average on the squad (.314) and 4th best OPS (.848).

On Sunday, Freshman 2nd Baseman Luke Nixon moved out to Right Field to fill the void, and his brother Chase Nixon was in Right. Starter Senior Noah Soles has been out since the Notre Dame Series at the end of March, but he has been taking batting practice and should be returning soon.

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