NC State went back and forth with Notre Dame in the first half of their first meeting. They then jumped out to a 5 point lead to open the second half.
And then the wheels fell off.
Nate Laszewski scored 8 in a row and 11 of Notre Dame’s next 13 points. During that time didn’t score a single point. Meanwhile. Laszewski blocked a shot, got a steal, and took a charge. He took over the game.
By the time he came back to earth, the Irish were up 8. And guess what NC State lost by?
That’s right 8. The final score was 73-65.
So what happened and what is NC State going to do about Laszewski (who finished with a team-high 18)? Well, Laszewski didn’t score again after that flurry, and the reason is that Keatts decided to go small. See, Mike Brey moved Laszewski to the 5 and removed his main post presence, Atkinson. This forced the NC State bigs to guard Laszewski on the perimeter. Something they just could not do. Keatts played a lineup with Hellems as his center, and this neutralized Laszewski.
This game is going to be a chess match between the coaches. Brey (ND head coach) is going to want to try to get Laszewski in as center against the NC State bigs. Keatts will attempt to meet that with a smaller lineup. Brey will then bring in Atkinson to exploit NC State’s small lineup, and Keatts will respond by bringing his big back. Can Keatts keep up? Can Keatts make moves that will put Brey on his heels? Will he throw a zone at them?
The problem is, NC State is thin right now, so options are limited. Most nights, NC State is being forced to play. reactive, since honestly, they’re pretty one-dimensional (guard-oriented).
That said, this is going to be a close game and despite the difference in records, these teams match up really well.
KEYS TO THE GAME FOR NC STATE
Get Seabron, Smith and Hellems going.
Last time out vs. Notre Dame, Seabron and Hellems had good games, but Smith had maybe his worst of the season. He was 1-9 shooting, had 4 points and 4 turnovers (he did have 7 rebounds though). They need these 3 to play well to win this game.
more morsell…More Morsell…MORE MORSELL!!!
Man, we can’t stress this enough, the guy needs to play Seabron and Smith type minutes. Those guys get 35 to 38 minutes per game. Morsell is getting a lot (played 30 vs Syracuse), but that’s not enough. He’s too valuable to have on the bench for even those 5 extra minutes. He’s by far your best defender and he’s NC State’s best 3 point shooter (% wise). I’ll say that again, he is NC State’s best 3 point shooter this season. He is hitting 42.9% from 3. Hellems is second at 41.6%. So why would Morsell ever be out of the game unless it’s for a quick breather? The truth is, he can’t be and shouldn’t be. Because the guys you are bringing in for him, Hayes and Allen aren’t giving you close to the value. Hayes hasn’t hit a 3 for almost a month. And as we showed you, while he’s a good on-ball defender, he’s constantly lost in the team defensive scheme. Allen is hitting a few 3s here and there, but he also is a prime culprit for losing his man in the team defensive scheme. Neither one of these guys are providing more value than Morsell offensively, and neither of them are anywhere close to the defender he is (on or off-ball). So, I hate to call guys out like this, but it’s VERY clear at this point. When you take out Morsell, you’re immediately providing less value on both ends of the floor.
Will Breon Pass finally start claiming the minutes he’s earned vs. ND?
Ok, here is another thing I think (hope) you’re going to start seeing down the stretch. Breon Pass is going to get more minutes. He’s proving nightly that he deserves them. Since 12/29 vs. Miami, Pass has 10 assists and 4 turnovers. That’s a 2.5 Assist-to-Turnover ratio. That’s very good. In fact, most coaches say that an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3 is elite level. Pass is close.
During that same period Seabron has 43 assists and 32 turovers (1.34 Assist-to-Turnover ratio) and Cam Hayes has 23 assists and 18 turnovers (1.28 Assist-to-Turnover ratio).
See, it’s understandable that you’re living with Seabron’s lower ratio because you really can’t take Smith, Morsell or Hellems off the floor, and against most teams, you need a big. So Seabron gives you the best option at the point. He allows you to play your best lineup, and he is such a danger to get to the rim when he has the ball in his hands. He also is also leading your team in rebounds. So, yeah, he’s not coming out.
But what about Hayes or Allen? Why are those guys getting more minutes than Pass? Well, it seems to be a lineup thing. Pass needs to play PG when he comes in. That’s really the only place he fits. But then what do you do? Do you take out Hellems, Seabron, or Smith? You need those guys. I think Pass should be the first guy off the bench, and I think you’ll see more of him in this one as NC State may be forced to play a smaller lineup, moving Hellems to the 5, Seabron to the 4, Morsell to the 3, and Smith at the 2 with Pass at point.
Pass is doing a great job getting to the middle and kicking out. He’s also showing his ability to score, which was one of his best attributes in HS. And oh yeah, he’s a great, physical defender too. So, what’s the deal? It’s time to get Pass more run and I hope it starts in this game.
Limit the looks from 3
NC State ranks 327th nationally in defensive 3pt %. Meaning, they allow their opponents to shoot a higher percentage from 3 than 327 Division 1 teams. This is pretty sad, seeing as there are only 358 D1 teams overall. Why is this the case? Why do teams shoot so well vs. NC State?
It’s actually kind of crazy, seeing as NC State is really built to NOT allow this. They have a long, athletic, tall guards all over the floor. They should be a really tough team to get shots off against. That’s really how bad their defense has been. They are so out of position, so often, that teams constantly get open looks. Just look at the proof. We showed you how in the game vs Syracuse, 11 of the Orange’s 15 1st half FGs were a result of defensive mistakes by NC State.
So how do you clean this up? Well, here’s the bad news. It’s not going to be cleaned up this season. They need to adjust defensive strategy. In the short term, NC State could throw teams off rhythm by throwing in some zone. Confusing defenses with some matchup zone. Who knows, but man they gotta do something. This team is LAST in the ACC in eFG% defense, defensive efficiency, and defensive 3pt % (and they are 12th in the conference in defensive 2pt%). Everyone complains about the offense, but with the right lineup in there, that’s not the issue. The defense is what is killing NC State.
