There is no way around it, NC State needs to beat the Heels today in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels enter the game as one of the top 5 teams in the country, while the Wolfpack limps in at 0-4 in ACC play.

The Heels (a 16pt favorite) sport a balanced attack. They can beat you at the guard position where Marcus Paige is averaging 15ppg. He’s being backed up by Joel Berry II who is right behind him at 13 ppg. Down low they are a team that is rapidly gaining confidence. Brice Johnson is leading the way at 17ppg and 10 rebounds. After years of uneven play from him, somehow Roy Williams has convinced Brice to toughen up and it’s really helped the Heels. Then there’s always Isaiah Hicks (who put up 21 last time out), Justin Jackson (who is averaging 13ppg and shooting 50% from the field), and of course Kennedy Meeks (who is just working his way back from injury, but is always a factor.) When you look at this UNC team on paper, they are scary good. They have the bigs, they have the guards, they have the size and athletic ability to really play with anybody. So, is there really any way State can stop them? If there is, these will certainly be the keys…

A huge game from Cat Barber
State is going to need Barber to play huge. We’re not talking about him just having a hot shooting night. We’re talking about him stepping up as a vocal leader, dictating the pace, getting his teammates involved, and shutting down Paige on defense. This is the perfect time for Barber to transition from scoring point guard to team leader. Cat is certainly capable of this type of performance, but will he have the energy? UNC is likely going to put some pressure on him in the backcourt and make him work to even get into the offense. Gottfried is going to have to use his timeouts wisely and steal some minutes with Cat on the bench getting a breather if he wants his PG to be fresh on both ends of the floor.

Abu dominance
Last game against FSU, Abu finally looked like the dominant post presence he became at the end of last season. He was physical, strong, relentless and aggressive. UNC has some major size on the blocks and their bench goes deep. Abu is going to have to by as physical as ever while staying out of foul trouble. This has something he’s never quite mastered, but there’s not better time to turn over a new leaf than against your arch-rival in a must win game. Cat is their #1 option, but Abu has to become #2 if this team wants a chance today.

Defensive Gameplan
How is Gottfried going to attack this UNC team on D? While he might come out in a straight up man to man, he’s likely going to want to switch up some looks. With his thin bench against UNC’s depth, State might have to look into a little matchup zone against the Heels. The problem with that is that the Heels also have guys like Johnson and Meeks that can get into the gaps of that zone and knock down short jumpers. It will be interesting to see how he game plans against the Heels. To be perfectly honest, State really does not matchup that well against this team. Gott may very well opt for State to really pack down in the middle and make the UNC guards shoot their way to a win.

Play smart/disciplined basketball 
NC State is not going to win this game if they play the same way they’ve played thus far this season. That’s a harsh reality, but unless UNC absolutely lays an egg, the style of ball the Pack has played isn’t enough here. They are going to need to need to show patience in their offensive sets. Every possession is going matter and they need to cherish each and ever one to maximize efficiency.

They are going to need to be aggressive but calculated on defense. Playing in the passing lanes and making it tough for the UNC guards to make point to point passes or clean entry passes is big. This is where State can create turnovers and chaos without gambling. This would extend the defense a bit more and allow some more room for the bigs to operate, so if the UNC bigs start taking over, Gott may have to call back the guards and really pack in the defense.

They need to contest shots, not try to block them. Too many times teams have pump faked or shot over top of a jumping Pack defender and it’s led to a breakdown of the NC State defense. A simple pump fake that gets a guard off his feet sets in motion a situation that this team just hasn’t handled. The opposing guard gets a guard off his feet with a pump fake from 3. He then puts in on the floor to attack. Beejay or Abu usually steps up to stop the drive, but NC State’s rotation to cover Beejay or Abu’s man is just too slow. The times they do get there, the next level of rotation never happens and a 3 point shooter is left wide open. Instead, the Wolfpack guards need to close out with a hand in the defenders face, but keep balance enough to react to the pump fake. If they shoot over you and make it, let them. Those shots are the ones you don’t mind giving up.

For the bigs it’s the same thing. Too often Beejay Anya or another big comes help side for the block, leaving their man without a body on him. This is a major gamble. Great shot blockers are not just athletic, but they are smart. They know when to take that gamble and when to not. They know their limits, and the consequences if they don’t get the block. Too often the NC State bigs are helping out, looking for the weakside block, but missing. This is leading to an easy put back by the offensive rebounder. The Pack has some good shot blockers, but they simply need to pick and choose their spots.

Can Mav and Caleb connect?
We talked extensively about the struggles of two guys that NC State was really counting on for perimeter scoring. Rowan and Caleb Martin are good shooters, but just have not found any sort of consistency this season. Today they are going to be needed more than ever before. Rowan has gotten red hot at the end of nearly all of the ACC games thus far, but has struggled out of the gate. Martin is coming of of one of the worst shooting nights of his career. These guys need to come alive in this game and that’s going to start with them taking good, clean shots. Forcing 3’s against this Tar Heels team is going to lead to long rebounds and quick transition buckets on the other end, but a hot Rowan or Caleb could change this game.

Leave it all on the floor
One area that you really can’t fault this team is how hard they play. They don’t always make the right decisions on the floor, but they stay in games because of their hustle and want-to. There is no doubt this team wants to win. The problem is that they haven’t quite figured out ‘how.’ Today is no different. They need 100% effort out of every man. They don’t need heroes out there, they need guys willing to grind. Every possession will matter in this game and NC State isn’t deep. They are going to need a possessed type performance on both ends of the floor and with the team sitting at 0-4 in the ACC and taking on their arch-rival who is a heavy favorite, I don’t think the conditions could be better for them to get one.