1. Make North Carolina a jump shooting team…
Carolina is shooting just 31% from distance as a team this season, and NC State must force UNC to die from the arc. I am not saying the Pack should hold up a sign that reads shoot, but if they can contest UNC attempts from 3 then they will have success defensively. Historically Marcus Paige has been lethal from beyond the arc; however, this season the senior is shooting just 33% behind the 3 point line. In Carolina’s 5 losses they have combined to shoot just 28.1% from 3. Let me be clear Carolina has some players that can get hot from distance, but it is one of the weakest parts of their offensive attacks. If State can force UNC to settle for jump shots by sealing off penetration and not allowing easy entry passes into the post, then they have an excellent shot at beating North Carolina tonight.
2. Keep Carolina off the glass…
Offensive rebounds were a killer for the Pack the last time these two teams met in Chapel Hill, UNC totaled 21. That is way too many second chance points for a team that averages 83.9 points per game, good enough for 8th in the NCAA. The Pack has proven to be a good rebounding team this season, especially as Abu has become more aggressive on the glass. State pulls in right around 40 rebounds per game, which is 23rd in the NCAA. In my opinion UNC’s big men are not super skilled scoring with their backs to the basket, yes Brice Johnson is good but he gets a lot of points on the break and on put backs. Kennedy Meeks is the same way, he scored 23 in the team’s previous meeting, but lots of his points came off of hectic second chance plays under the basket. Sure he scored some traditionally out of the post, but those were actually defended pretty well, he just made tough shots. I do not foresee him making those shots at such a high rate tonight.
3. Attack the paint…
Cat Barber needs to snap out of his two game funk, he needs to be aggressive. Attacking at every chance possible. This means pushing the ball up the court on makes and misses as State has got to put pressure on Carolina’s defense. Carolina is not deep at the power forward and center position. State must exploit that with Cat driving at them and dumping the ball off to Abu. If Cat and Abu can work together then State can draw some fouls on Johnson and Meeks. Fouls will be a big determinant in tonight’s game. The X-Factor inside is BeeJay Anya, he always seems to play with a little more zip when State plays UNC and Duke. Mark Gottfried will need Anya to be at his best tonight and hopefully the big junior can make his presence felt not only on defense but on offense as well. If Anya can get some tip in dunks, and draw some fouls underneath that will help State knock off the Tarheels tonight.
Conclusion…
State has a great opportunity tonight to get a win against UNC, Carolina is talented but they are not unbeatable. I respect that they have players capable of lighting up the box score, but I feel like State matches up well with the Tarheels. State has the size and athletic ability to keep pace in an uptempo game that North Carolina likes, the Pack also has guys who put pressure on UNC’s smaller back-court. Last time these two teams met it was a low scoring game, I expect a higher scoring game tonight. It will take a clean game from the Pack to win tonight, but if they can get similar performances out of Abu, Martin, and Rowan as they did last game and couple that with a typical Barber outing then they could walk away with the win.
