Football Statistics can be a funny thing. People can look at them and come to different conclusions. Yesterday, I read a post from the RedandWhitePodcast.com, in which they pondered whether NC State will ever have a good pass defense. They analyzed the numbers of NC State head coach Dave Doeren while he was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and Defensive Coordinator Dave Huxtable while he was at UNC, UCF, & Pitt. Their interpretation of the data was that Dave Doeren must not be upset with Huxtable’s track record at NC State, because obviously he finds mediocrity acceptable.
While I’m not attempting to disrespect their research, the more I looked at the numbers, the more I found myself seeing them from a different angle.
Let’s take a look at Doeren’s numbers at Wisconsin.
To begin with, Doeren was the Co-Defensive Coordinator for 2006 and 2007. When he fully inherited control of the defense in 2008, the Badgers were coming off of a season in which they ranked 38th in total defense, 42nd in rush defense, and 49th in pass defense. In his final season at Wisconsin he had cut each of these categories nearly in half, with a total defense ranked 20th, and both the rush and pass defense ranked 26th. I’m not sure that the data shows an acceptance of mediocrity in the pass defense.
Let’s now take a look at Huxtable’s numbers prior to arriving at NC State.
In Huxtable’s first year as Defensive Coordinator at UCF the pass defense ranked 58th, and after a dismal 2009 (113th), he helped guide them to 41st in 2010. In three years the passing defense improved 17 spots. The total defense went from 43rd in his first year, to 15th in his final year there. In his one season as defensive coordinator at Pitt, he led them to a total defense ranking of 17th, and his pass defense was actually ranked in the top 20 (20th), where his rush defense was not (31st).
Now I want to look at what Dave Doeren and Dave Huxtable have done with the pass defense since arriving at NC State.
Dave Doeren and Dave Huxtable at NC State
2015- 213.8 yards – 44th
2014 – 210.9 yards – 39th
2013 – 211.9 – 27th
The pass defense has fallen 17 spots in a three year span, but if you look at the actual yardage, the Wolfpack actually gave up less yards in the air in 2014, and managed to fall 12 spots. The difference between the three years is 1.9 yards. The pass defense at NC State hasn’t fallen off the rails in the past three years, and it hasn’t exactly been atrocious.
But these numbers are best understood in context of where they have brought the program. What was the pass defense like before they arrived in Raleigh?
Tom O’Brien Era
2012 – 268.5 – 102nd
2011 – 221 – 49th
2010 – 235.2 – 83rd
2009 – 251.9 – 99th
2008 – 253.8 – 99th
2007 – 212.7 – 30th
Tom O’Brien’s pass defense went from 30th in year 1, to 102nd in year 6, with a gap of over 50 more yards in the air.
In a matter of three years, Dave Doeren and Dave Huxtable have helped the pass defense improve from 102nd to 44th. I don’t think that is a sign they don’t care about pass defense, or settle for mediocrity.
I love statistics, but they don’t always tell the whole story. With that being said, the story I read from the angle in which I examine the stats, I see two coaches who improved the pass defense in their previous posts, and have once again moved another program forward here at NC State.
NC State Football
Proposed Bill in the NC House Would Require NC State & UNC To Play One Another, as well as ECU, UNCC and App St.
A bill has been proposed by members of the North Carolina House of Representatives that would force NC State and UNC to play one another, as well as East Carolina, UNC Charlotte and Appalachian State.
According to House Bill 965, which you can read here in full, NC State and UNC would be required to play one another annually in Football, Men’s Basketball and Women’s Basketball. The Wolfpack and the Tar Heels would also be forced to play a game annually in all three sports against either ECU, UNC-Charlotte or App St. Every six years, NC State and UNC would be required to have played a home and away game against each of the three school in all three sports.
Here’s the exact wording from the proposed bill:
Competition Required. – A high-enrollment institution shall do all of the following in each eligible sport: (1) Every academic year, play at least one home or one away game against (i) another high-enrollment institution and (ii) an eligible constituent institution that is not a high-enrollment institution. (2) Every six academic years, play at least one home and one away game against each eligible constituent institution that is not a high-enrollment institution. A high-enrollment institution shall alternate home and away games that are scheduled against the same eligible constituent institution that is not a high-enrollment institution.
For glossary of terms being referenced above:
For the purposes of this bill, “High-enrollment institutions” = NC State and UNC, while “Eligible constituent institutions” = East Carolina, UNC Charlotte and Appalachian State.
It’s worth noting that NC State already has games schedule against each of these teams home-and-away in Football between now and 2031.
2025 – East Carolina (H)
2025 – @ App St.
2026 – App St. (H)
2028 – @ East Carolina
2030 – Charlotte (H)
2031 – @ Charlotte
What are your thoughts?
For more details, check out this article at WRAL.
Akron Safety Kerry Martin Jr. (6’1″/195) confirmed with me that he will be taking an Official Visit to NC State next week beginning on May 7th.
After receiving an offer from NC State yesterday, it didn’t take him long to set up the visit.
AGTG Blessed to receive an offer from NC State 🤘🏾❤️ #PackPride pic.twitter.com/mIws42lE7L
— Kerry “KJ” Martin Jr. (@_thekerrymartin) May 1, 2024
Martin Jr. is familiar with NC State, because he was recruited by Wolfpack Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson before he left West Virginia to come to Raleigh. Even though he never coached him, a relationship was established.
Martin Jr.’s connections to NC State are deeper than that. Former NC State Cornerback Derrek Pitts, who is currently a member of the Tampa Bay Bucs, is his cousin.
This past year, Martin Jr. recorded 45 tackles, 2 interceptions and 6 pass breakups for Akron, starting in 9 of the 11 games he played in. His PFF Grade was 68.9.
In 2022, he had 53 tackles, 1 interception and 1 pass breakup, starting in 9 of the 11 games he played in. Martin Jr.’s PFF Grade was 60.9.
In 2019, as a Freshman for West Virginia, Martin Jr. earned PFF Freshman All-American honors, recording a grade of 70.6, with 50 tackles and 3 pass breakups.
In Game film… pic.twitter.com/vunpDgPsBC
— Kerry “KJ” Martin Jr. (@_thekerrymartin) January 16, 2024
247’s Brad Crawford released his Post-Spring 2024 Preseason College Football Top-25 recently, and NC State moved up 1 spot to #20.
ACC Teams in the Top-25
11. FSU
14. Miami
16. Clemson
20. NC State
24. Virginia Tech
25. Louisville
NC State Football
NC State Ranks 8th in Players Selected in the NFL Draft in the ACC in the Last 10 Years
The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone, and NC State had two players drafted: Linebacker Payton Wilson in the 3rd round, and Center Dylan McMahon in the 6th round.
Over the past 10 years, NC State has produced 25 NFL Draft picks, and 3 1st round picks. The 25 Draft Picks ranks 8th in the ACC, and the 3 1st Round picks is tied for 7th.
NC State produced 18 NFL Draft Picks in the first 5 Draft’s of Dave Doeren’s tenure. Only 8 Wolfpack players have been selected in the past 5 NFL Drafts.
Players selected in the NFL Draft under Dave Doeren:
2024
Payton Wilson, LB – Pittsburgh – 3rd – 98th
Dylan McMahon, C – Philadelphia – 6th – 190th
Yards are down, but it doesn’t translate to in game success. The overall pass yardage is artificially low from playing weaker teams, and we can’t stop anyone in obvious passing situations. We stay way too far off receivers trying to avoid getting beaten deep, so they settle underneath coverage and get first down after first down, or they have enough room to run that they get a 20-30 yard catch.