NC State Wolfpack vs. UNC Tarheels
7pm | ESPN2 | PNC Arena, Raleigh
NC State is riding high after a convincing home beat down of #2 Duke, but there is no time to celebrate with #15 UNC coming to Raleigh. The rival Heels have had somewhat of an up and down start to their season thus far. With losses to Butler and Iowa in the early goings balanced by wins over Ohio State and Louisville, Carolina is kind of hard to figure out.
On one hand the Heels are a big team that plays very good defense, dominates the boards and really shares the basketball. On the other hand they really struggle to score from the perimeter. A lot hinges on the play of junior PG Marcus Paige. Paige was a guy who led this team last year, shooting a stellar 45% from the field and nearly 40% from 3pt range. Nearly everyone expected that to continue, however his numbers have regressed back to the range most projected for him coming out of high school and after his freshman season.
Now, before you go writing off Paige, realize that he’s capable of getting hot. He is coming off a game winning shot and he is averaging a team leading 13ppg. That being said, this is NC State and we all know that players LOVE to come out of hibernation against the Pack. Watch for Paige to push to regain his form from last season and come out firing.
They may have a few advantages here or there, but overall this is a very evenly matched game. State has a lot of momentum coming off that big win over Duke, but UNC has the same feeling after winning against #5 Louisville. This game is going to come down to matchups. Who will be able to exploit who.
With that said, here are our 3 keys to an NC State victory.
1 | Keep them off the boards!
UNC is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. They have done a great job at keeping their opponents off the glass with sheer size and lots of physicality. Meeks and Johnson lead the team by brining down 9 and 7 respectively. Keeping these guys off the glass will be the job of Anya, Abu and Washington. State did a good job of this against Duke but the Blue Devils don’t have nearly the same size and strength as the Heels. State will need to be ready to battle in the paint.
Then there is JP Tokoto. This guys is somewhat of an x-factor for the Heels. Talent wise he’s just semi-skilled, but what he lacks there he makes up for with athleticism, size and hustle. The guy grabs 5 boards per game, leads the team with 4 assists per game (he IS very a good passer), and is their shut down defender at 6’5.
The other key with rebounding is keeping UNC from getting second chance points. Meeks and Johnson love to make a living on cleaning up the offensive glass. For the season they have a total of 93 offensive boards, which is pretty impressive. Just for comparison sake, Meeks has 54 and Bryce Johnson has 39, while Lennard Freeman leads State with 33. This means State desperately needs to put a body on these bigs.
2 | Bottle up Paige and a Big
I know, I know, Marcus Paige is having a down year, but that doesn’t mean he can’t come out and drop a 35 spot on State like he did last year. This year he obviously has had his problems, but he is still the team leader at 13ppg. Barber will be tasked with doing this for most of the night.
In all of UNC’s losses either Johnson or Meeks have had a poor offensive outing. When both of these guys get going State will be in trouble, but holding Paige below his average and keeping either Meeks or Johnson in single digits would very likely equal a win. Carolina really struggles from beyond the arc, and if Paige isn’t hitting his 3s than no one really is. Nate Britt can knock down the open 3, but his height and style of play doesn’t really lend itself to a takeover from beyond the arc. This means that they’re going to have to beat State in the middle and that means Anya is going to have to be an enforcer. Altering and blocking some shots early (and STAYING OUT OF FOUL TROUBLE) will go a long, long way in giving State the win.
3 | Execute the offense
One reason State was able to take out Duke was thanks to the ability to move the ball on offense and get open shots. It was exciting to see them working the high-low, and doing a great job of interior passing. They were patient in their cuts, and got a few open UCLA cuts. This led to the defense helping off which led to a quick pass to the opposite block big for a dunk. Abu got a bunch, Freeman got one or two and so did Anya. Washington did a good job of making this cut and making that pass. State will need the same kind of teamwork we saw last weekend.
They are also going to need Lacey and Turner to show up. These guys are the keys almost every game. They both need to come out hungry against this UNC team that really might have trouble guarding them. With that, let’s take a look at the matchups.
Paige vs. Barber
At this point I’ll give a slight advantage to Paige. He’s more of a scorer and has shown that he can be a preime time guy. Barber is playing better, making better decisions and is starting to become more of a floor leader. Barber’s defense is probably on par with Paige’s, but the ability for Paige to have a huge game is always there. We’ll give the edge to him in this one.
JP Tokato vs Trevor Lacey
Tokato is going to make things tough on Lacey. He’s one of the leagues better defenders and is someone who is going to be able to elevate with him on the pull-up. Lacey has made a living early on with his ability to elevate over his defender and hit shots. Tokato is going to take that away, so it will be interesting to see how Trevor handles that. Tokato offensively is just a fast break finisher and a good passer. He can score at times, but really that shouldn’t be a focus of the Pack. Lacey has the ability to change the game with his jumper so we’re going to go with Lacey on this one.
Justin Jackson vs Ralston Turner
A budding 6’8 freshman who is essentially a guard vs. a senior shooter. Kind of a mismatch on both ends, but Jackson really hasn’t shown much consistency while Turner has kind of notched himself in as the conference most deadly threat from beyond the arc. Does Jackson have the focus and ability to chase Turner all over the floor? He has the height to make up for a few lost steps, but he’ll have to keep his head on a swivel all night long as Turner weaves and slips around screen after screen. At this point we’ve got to say advantage Turner.
Brice Johnson vs Kyle Washington
Are we talking about Washington the guy that shoots every time he touches it, or Washington the guy who played against Duke. Who rebounded, and passed and knocked down open shots? If it’s that Washington then that makes this a different story. Brice Johnson is annoying to me. His body language looks like a guy with absolutely no confidence, but then when he makes a play he hypes himself up beyond belief. He can shoot, he can rebound and he’s definitely a good player. He is averaging 11 pts and 7 boards while Washington is averaging 7pts and 5 boards. Honestly, these two guys are very similar and with Washington is coming off such a great game that I’m going to say this is a push.
Kennedy Meeks vs Beejay Anya
This is the matchup of the game. The two bigs who came out in the same class and constantly battled on the AAU circuit will meet tonight. Meeks came in a little more college ready and had success early on. That success has led to this season where he really is the best guy on this Carolina team. Then there is Anya who just wasn’t physically ready last year. But after shedding weight and working on his game he’s become one of the ACC’s most improved players. Anya had the best game of his career against Duke and he is certainly charged up to show Meeks that he’s ready to start battling again. But until he can really do it in a game, you’d have to give the current advantage to Meeks.
OUR TAKE: On NC State’s selfless win over William & Mary
Another cupcake game, another huge blowout. This NC State team continues to take care of business, finishing off the Tribe 85-64.
The win is great and all, but a notch in the win column over W&M isn’t all that impressive. What is impressive, however, is the way this team is winning. This team can, and has beaten teams in so many different ways. Whatever the game has called for, NC State has had the answer.
Against Dayton, they needed to match their physicality and their experience. They did that, outrebounding a bigger, stronger Dayton team 34-28 and relying on Jarkel Joiner to keep the team focused and playing at their pace. (Joiner also went for 27 points).
Against Butler they needed to neutralize Manny Bates and expose their lack of depth inside. They did this with Mahorcic and Burns going for a combined 27 points and limiting Bates to just 8 points.
Then last night, against a William and Mary team who was scrappy and active on defense, and throwing double teams at NC State, they had to pass their way into easy buckets. They did this with 18 assists (W&M only had 8). The Pack was led by Terquavion Smith’s 7 assists, while his backcourt mate, Joiner, dished out 6. Even Dusan Mahorcic got in the action with 3.
The point I’m making is that the whole reason I’ve been so bullish on this NC State team from the get-go is that I recognized this versatility. The game of basketball is about matchups. Any small mismatch can put a lot of pressure on an entire team. Look at it like a chain. If one link of the chain is broken, the entire chain is no good. Same goes for basketball, if one defender can’t stay in front of his man, or one big can’t handle the guy he’s guarding, you need help. When a guy rotates over in help side, it creates a series of events that all have to go perfectly if you want to stop your opposition from scoring. The next guy over needs to recognize one of his teammates leaving for help, he then needs to rotate to the guy that was just left, meaning the next guy over has to rotate. All of this rotation is what makes up team defense, and as much as you teach team defense, these 19-year-olds are not going to be able to stay focused enough to consistently make the right read.
That’s why having no mismatches is key. It eliminates a lot of problems you may have on the defensive end. Last year there were mismatches all over the floor. We didnt have a PG who could stop these lighting quick guards from getting to the rim. When they got to the rim, we didn’t have an interior guy who could be relied upon to protect the basket. And then you had an undersized Hellems at the 4, who many teams attacked in the post.
A good coach looks for these mismatches and exploits them.
This team, however, is really hard to get a mismatch again. Joiner can guard any quick PG and he’s big and strong enough to bang with a stronger, thicker PG. Smith is long enough and quick enough to stay in front of most 2 guards. Morsell, NC State’s best overall defender, can guard pretty much anyone at the 3 with his size, strength, and understanding of defensive positioning. At the 4 you have Jack Clark, who has been huge for this team’s defense. He’s 6’8, mobile and athletic, and he’s a pretty gritty kid who doesn’t mind contact in the post. Then you have the bigs. Dusan is a horse. If you need a banger or enforcer, he’s your guy. Then you have Burns, who’s size alone makes him tough to move around. You saw Bates struggle with Burns sheer size. Bates is tall, springy, and long, but he’s got a thin frame. Sure he’s packed on lean muscle, but lean muscle ain’t moving a guy like Burns. The only thing I saw that could really hurt the Pack is super tall 3 who can hang on the perimeter and get shots off over Morsell (Like Grady Dick), or a really athletic, undersized big. I thought KJ Adams would probably cause problems, but he didn’t. Mahorcic is a lot more nimble than I was expecting, and I’m not as concerned as I was on that front.
Getting back to this game, NC State moved the ball well, ramped up the defense after a slow first 5 minutes, and overwhelmed the Tribe with size and speed.
Here are a few things that really stood out to me…
– Casey Morsell is on fire. Morsell went off again for 23 points on 8-12 shooting and 6-9 from 3-point range. He’s not shooting 53% from long range which is absolutely insane seeing as he’s shot 47 3’s (he’s hit 25 of those). In fact, Morsell shot 100 3’s last year and only hit 35 all season long. That’s still 35% which isn’t all that bad, but he’s going to eclipse that number over the next few games, and we’re only just entering ACC play. And this isn’t some random hot streak, in my opinion. Morsell is hitting 3s at home on the road (so far only in the Atlantis Ballroom, which is supposed to be a tough place to shoot). He’s also cleaned up his form. He’s not thinking about it as much, you can tell. No more hitches at the top like last year. He’s always had good form, but now he’s got confidence and he’s just letting it fly without focusing on mechanics. That’s a sign of a ton of offseason work and a coach that has given you the green light. Morsell knocking down open 3s is huge. Pairing him with 2 guards who defenders need to focus on is going to leave him open. He’s now taking advantage. (Note that Morsell was a 4-star recruit who started day 1 at UVA. He was known for his offense in HS, so him finding his offense isn’t too hard to believe.)
– Terquavion Smith is still settling into his new role. Last year Smith and Seabron was all NC State had. He could have a one-track mind on scoring. I don’t think people give enough credit to point guards. When you play basketball, most of the time you have a defined role. Just score. Or just rebound and score. There isn’t that many decisions to make. Open? Shoot. Guarded? Pass. But a PG or someone looking to get his teammates involved has way more going on in their head. Open? Shoot? How open? Could we get a better shot? Is anyone open? Should I slow it down? What’s the situation, pace, who is hot? Do they need me to score?
Bring able to turn that on and off is something only the most elite PGs in the world can do at a high level. Now, Terquavion Smith is being asked to add some of that to his game and as good as he is, it’s a transition. This is the first time in his life he’s not just a scorer. Sure, there were times when double teams came, that he’d dish off for a bucket, but setting guys up and making these split-second decisions every time down the floor is a process. What you’re seeing is Smith getting used to that process. He’s actually putting up great overall numbers. He’s averaging 16.1 points, leading the team with 5 .3 assists per game and grabbing 3 boards per game. He’s hitting 39% of his shots, which is where he was at last season, but he’s only hitting 33% for his 3s, down from 37%, but his assists are up from 2.1 to 5.3. His turnovers are also up from 1.7 last year to 3.1 this year.
So what do you make of this? Well, Smith is going to start hitting more 3s eventually, but his FG% is on par with last year. His assists are way up, and in comparison, Markell Johnson, NC State’s 3rd overall in career assists averaged 5.1 assists per game for his career and 2.45 turnovers per game. If Smith can knock down a few more threes and clean up a few turnovers, then he’ll be an elite scorer who is creating opportunities for his teammates at the pace of some of the best PGs in NC State history.
– Greg Gantt finally got some significant run and looked pretty darn good. He got 9 minutes in this one and looks like he’ll really provide some value on the boards. He’s physical has a high motor and reall was active on defense. He’s pretty thick and strong, so he might start eating into Ernest Ross’s minutes here soon. Ross has been given a lot of opportunities, but he hasn’t shown much just yet. Gantt hit a long 2 (initially ruled a 3) but also airballed a floater. I think it will be a few games before we see what Gantt brings to the table offensively, but he’s already proving he can give Keatts some good minutes on defense.
Kevin Keatts Postgame Press Conference After William & Mary Victory: BULLETED
NC State Men’s Basketball head coach Kevin Keatts met with the media tonight after the Wolfpack’s 85-64 victory over William & Mary 85-64. You can watch it here, or check out a BULLETED breakdown below.
- We did some really good things.
- What I’m really proud of is 18 assists on 31 made field goals.
- Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner are really playing unselfish basketball.
- When you look at the 2 of those guys, they had 13 assists, and I think this was a career high for Terquavion.
- He sacrificed a little bit in scoring, but what’s happening in front of us is that we’re starting to see a little bit more of a complete player.
- Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner are really playing unselfish basketball.
- Our energy was good once we got going.
- Our bench was incredible.
- Some guys came in and did a really good job.
- It was a good win, and we move on.
- What I’m really proud of is 18 assists on 31 made field goals.
- The way I look at it right now, I’ve got 6 starters.
- For this game, I wanted to go with DJ Burns over Dusan Mahorcic, and both of those guys are going to end up playing half the game anyway.
- It’s just a matter of who starts and who I sub first.
- I’m getting away from all the superstitious stuff.
- It’s the reality of it [not being in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge]. Someone’s not going to be in it. We’re just not in it, and it didn’t bother me at all.
- I’m rooting for our conference to do well, and I can’t wait to get out of here and check the scores.
- I know we started off 2-0.
- I don’t know who won today, but I will watch some of the games.
- It’s not about that. When you’re playing against another conference, all your excitement is just for our other teams to do well.
- [How they would have done if they were in it this year] Well, I will say this…since I’ve been here, we’ve been fortunate enough to be 3-1 in the Challenge, but we won’t know.
- We’re not in it. I’m rooting for every ACC team in the next 2 or 3 days.
- We’re doing some good things. Do I think we still have a long way to go in certain areas? Absolutely.
- It’s early. It’s a little bit early for a conference game, but the reality of it is that we have to play on Friday.
- We’ve grown in the last 2 or 3 weeks. We’ve gotten better.
- The Bahamas helped us, playing 3 really good teams back-to-back.
- I like some of the things we’re doing.
- We’re going to take the next couple of days to try to get better and get ready for Pitt.
- He’s [Casey Morsell] been working.
- I think it’s the 2nd time this year that he’s made 6 three-pointers, and you love to see a kid who puts in the work and works on those shots every day for it to go in.
- That’s added a really big dimension to our offense.
- I don’t think he ever thought he was a defensive guy.
- That’s probably why he’s here.
- He’s a great kid who works hard. He’s turning into a great 2-way player.
- I knew I was getting an energy guy [Dusan Mahorcic].
- He’s all about what NC State’s about. He’s a hard-head guy.
- He brings it every day. He’s the type of guy you cheer for.
- He’s going to get on the floor, he’s going to block a shot, and he’s going to jump up and down.
- He’s tailor-made for what our program’s about.
- If I were you, I wouldn’t challenge him on that [that Mahorcic describes his game as tough]. I don’t know if you’re ready for that.
Men’s Basketball: NC State 85 William & Mary 64: ACCDN Highlight Reel & Condensed Game
The NC State Men’s Basketball team defeated William & Mary 85-64 tonight, improving to 7-1. You can check out the Box Score here. Below is the ACC Digital Network’s Highlight Reel and Condensed Game.
Men’s Basketball: NC State 85 William & Mary 64: BOX SCORE
NC State improved to 7-1 tonight, defeating William & Mary 85-64. Below is the Box Score.
Casey Morsell continued shredding the net, with a team high 23 points. He shot 8-12 from the field and and absurd 6 of 9 from three.
Terquavion Smith had yet another poor shooting performance (3-11 FG), but finished 2nd on the team with 13 points, and had a team high 7 assists, with only 1 turnover. That ratio is a great improvement for Lil T.
Jack Clark was efficient, scoring 12 points on 5 0f 8 shooting from the field, and 2 of 4 from deep. He also had 6 rebounds and tied for the team high in steals, with 3.
Dusan Mahorcic continued to impress, chipping in 12 points on 5 of 6 shooting, and led the team with 9 boards.
Jarkel Joiner is good at basketball, filling the stat sheet with 11 points (5 of 11 FG), 4 rebounds, 6 assists (3 TO) and 3 steals.