DEEP STATS: Is NC State’s insane 3rd down efficiency numbers fueling their undefeated season?

Coming into the season it was common knowledge that NC State’s offense was going to be good.

With starting QB Ryan Finley returning for his senior campaign and a stable of WRs that could rival any team in the country, it’s no surprise that through 6 weeks the Wolfpack is leading the conference in passing yards. That’s great and all, but did you know the Pack is ranked #1 in the entire nation in 3rd down conversion %.

Now, there is a lot that goes into having successful 3rd down conversion rates such as the average yardage you’re gaining on 1st and 2nd downs, the playcalling and obviously your personnel.

With the stoic Ryan Finley behind center, a quality offensive coordinator in Coach Drink, and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions, NC State has both options and experience. Those two things usually will lead to high offensive conversion rates, and high conversion rates usually equal long drives and a high ‘time of possession’ average.

Taking a look at ‘time of possession’ numbers you see (as expected) NC State sitting at #7 in the nation.

So, NC State is converting on 3rd down, which is leading to extended drives. Extended drives are spiking their ‘time of possession’ and those high ‘time of possession’ numbers are helping them dictate the pace, keep their defense fresh and thus rack up the wins.

Speaking of keeping the defense fresh, them being on the sidelines so long seems to be paying off.

In fact, when looking at 3rd downs, the NC State defense is holding teams to a conversion rate of 33%. That ranks 33rd in the nation. And remember, offensively they are converting a nation-leading 60.9% of their 3rd downs.

That means their 3rd down conversion rate margin is an insane 28%.

Looking at last season for comparison, the Pack converted on only 45% of their 3rd downs and allowed their opponents to convert on 42% of theirs. That gave them a margin of only 3%.

So to summarize:
2017 3rd down conversion margin: 3%
2018 3rd down conversion margin: 28%

That’ a pretty massive difference and that 28% is looking pretty darn high, so we tried to see where that number ranked nationally. While we weren’t able to track that down, we did find the ‘3rd AND 4th down conversion rate margin’ rankings, and as expected NC State is right up there at #3 in the nation.

Best 3rd/4th down conversion rate margins:
Army, +35.5%
Bama, +30.4%
NC State, +25.8%
Miami, +24.6%
Boise St, 22.8%

Worst:
UCLA, -16.5%
Wyoming, -15.6%
SMU, -15.3%
UNC, -13.9%
UConn, -13.3%

— A David Hale joint (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 10, 2018

Of all the stats that NC State is putting up right now, it’s hard to believe any have been as important to their current success as this grouping. When you factor in the fact that the Pack’s ground game has been decent at best, this really says a lot about the poise and focus of Ryan Finley and the grittiness and hunger of this defense.