2nd Seed NC State Wolfpack @ 1st Seed Louisville Cardinals
Time: Noon
Location: Greensboro
Coverage: ESPN2

What we all expected has come to fruition…Just not necessarily as “cleanly” as we hoped.

Sunday at noon (Seriously? Noon? Feel like I’m back in a U-12 tournament) the top two teams in the ACC, battle out for some hardware and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In seems like FOREVER ago these two teams matched up, with State taking the upset win, walking away mind you, 74-60. (Link to that game’s highlights above).

Road to the Championship

State was a tale of two teams this extended weekend. Versus Virginia Tech (68-55 win) in the quarterfinals they didn’t quite have the shooting touch, but were in complete control for the entirety of the game. Against Georgia Tech, however, State looked lost. It wasn’t until a 20-6 run in the 4th quarter that they were able to secure the 66-61 victory.

Louisville was in absolute control through their first two rounds of the Tournament, only trailing by a combine 1:27. The quarterfinals saw Guard Van Lith take over with 24 points in a 65-53 win. In the semifinals versus Syracuse, four Cardinals were in double figures in the 72-59 win.

Who Returns to “Normal” First?

For the second straight season, the ACC Player of the Year was Louisville Shooting Guard, Dana Evans. The hottest player coming out of the regular season in the ACC, was State’s Jakia Brown-Turner. Neither have had a great tournament thus far.

LOU – D. Evans: 21 pts / 10 ast (Normally averages that per game)
STATE – Brown-Turner: 12 pts / 7 reb (Last four games of regular season averaged 17/5, a game)

In a game so evenly matched, both will need to ramp up their play.

Find Avenues to Attack.

On the season, State averages 37% from behind the arch. The games in which Louisville takes control, is when they limit your options of attacking. Both Wake Forest and Syracuse shot less that 17% from three, forcing them to go inside more, where Louisville clamped down.

In their first matchup of the season, State was successful spreading the floor and attacking. There were series that Perez hits a three, next went inside to Cunane, then a back door cut to Boyd. Louisville can go big or go small, so the ability to keep them on their heels with a diverse attack is HUGE.

Fast Start, While Limiting Runs

Louisville is good and when they get ahead, they usually stay there. State has to play aggressive and physical from the get-go. Moments of the VT and GT games, they looked sluggish, undisciplined and unprepared. While we love the fact that they’ve fully embraced the “Doesn’t matter if it’s ugly, we’re just here to win” mentality, that won’t fair well against the Cards.

Wes Moore has brought it up after both games, that sometimes on defense they rely on “the opponent to make the mistake.” Defensive rebounds have to turn into uptempo transitions. No more walking, no more waiting, attack. State needs to keep it close in the first, and take advantage of size in the second half.

Predictions

When State is on, they’re on. The wins against South Carolina and these same Cardinals prove that they are a team that can make a deep Tournament run. But they need to show up. The first two games were probably 80-85% what they are capable of…that just won’t do it against Louisville.

If Brown-Turner returns to her 16 point status, if Cunane and Hobby solidify that inside presence and if Perez and Jones spread the floor and find their open looks, then State repeats as ACC Champs.

If any one of those pieces are missing? Sorry Wolfpack Nation.