I’ve hinted about this for over a year now. I’ve gone play-by-play on game footage to show you that I’m not making this stuff up. And now I’m going to scream it.

NC State will never reach its full potential until defensive fundamentals are taken seriously.

I’ve been a vocal Keatts supporter since he arrived, despite many potential coaching red flags. I believe he has the intangibles that very few coaches have and things you really can’t teach.

For one, his players love playing for him. For years, NC State fans have complained about lack of effort from their teams. Keatts’ kids give 100% every time out. Over his tenure, I can only remember one or two games where I felt the team wasn’t scrapping and playing their hearts out. That’s the first thing a coach needs to be able to do to achieve success.

Secondly, Keatts is very good at evaluating talent. He got commitments from Josh Hall, Jalen Lecque, Saddiq Bey, Terquavion Smith, and more recently Trea Parker. All of these guys were 3-star recruits when Keatts first got involved. He’s able to get the jump on larger programs by trusting his own eyes instead of waiting on recruiting gurus to tell him who is college ready.

Keatts offensive system isn’t all that bad either. I know most fans criticize the fact that they play a lot of 1 on 1 basketball, but his teams have always been top 5 in the ACC in scoring and with decent bigs this season, you can see that he’s not afraid to have his guys dump it down and play from the post when needed. This offense works fine when you have elite playmakers, and for the majority of Keatts tenure, he’s had that.

But there has been one glaring weakness since he’s arrived…

Defense.

I’ve said it probably 50 times. This style of defense, where you switch on all screens 1 through 5 (or 1 through 4), you press almost all game, and deflections are rewarded, is undermining this basketball team’s chance to succeed.

Keatts and staff probably don’t want to hear it, and believe if they stay the course they will succeed with it, but the numbers don’t lie. It’s not working at this level.

This type of defense works at lower levels. The press dominates against smaller guards with lower court-IQ. The length, speed, and hustle overwhelm teams not accustomed to pressure. And it leads to steals, which leads to points, which leads to wins.

However, the ACC is filled with big, smart, athletic guards, and coaches are prepping their teams on how to dismantle the Wolfpack. Meanwhile, the Pack is wasting valuable energy, while consistently giving up uncontested easy buckets. This forces even the best offensive team to have an uphill climb to win.

Just look at the last game vs. Miami.

Smith, Joiner and Burns all had great games. Morsell played fine. Yet, NC State still lost.

You can blame the foul trouble of Jack Clark if you want, but all 5 guys shouldn’t have to play perfect basketball to get a win. Having 2 guys have big games should be enough on most nights, and when both your guards and your big man go-off there should be no excuse for losing.

So what the heck is going on?

Just look. NC State racks up the turnovers in non-conference play with their press, but against ACC opponents, those turnovers drop off. Miami only turned the ball over 6 times against the Pack. The trade-off from 6 turnovers was a ton of spent energy, and a bunch of easy, uncontested buckets from Miami when they broke the press.

NC State is not getting good value from its press. If you ask me, Keatts would be better off having his guys pick up at half-court most of the game, playing a more fundamental, traditional style of defense, and then surprising his opponents with the press in certain situations.

The key for the Pack, it seems, is to make their opponents score OVER them. Meaning, stop letting guys get to the rim and start limiting easy buckets.

Very few teams will be able to out-score NC State if they have to rely on jump shots.  However, Wolfpack opponents get a big chunk of points off rim runs from breaking the press, or isolations when a mismatch occurs because of a switch.

The ‘switch-everything on defense’ strategy that swept college basketball for a decade has been a failure for most. The ACC is too talented to think your 4 man can guard the opposing point guard. NC State can probably switch 1 through 3, however, I wouldn’t even do that. I would challenge my team to be disciplined enough to hedge and recover on ball screens. So what if they get off a few 3s here and there? What this team needs to do is limit drives to the hoop. That’s where all the havoc is being created.

For example, when Joiner’s man goes off of a screen set by Jack Clark’s guy, NC State switches that screen.Clark takes Joiner’s guy and Joiner takes Clark’s guy. Suddenly you have a point guard attacking the 6’8 Jack Clark, and while Clark is very versatile for a 6’8 guy, a smart, talented PG is going to exploit this. All he has to do is get a half step on Clark, which then means someone needs to pinch in to help, leaving someone open on the wing for a wide-open shot (or a big helps over, opening up a window for a dump-off).

The idea of the ‘switch everything’ defense means that there are no windows for open shots or drives off of ball screens. However, they leave you with a mismatch that teams are taking advantage of over and over against NC State.

If you don’t switch, there are small windows where the ball handler could get off a shot (if the defender goes under the screen). And if the defender goes over the screen, the drive is open if the hedge isn’t perfect. But this is where you have to teach smart, situational defense.

There are few shooters good enough in the ACC to warrant chasing them over top of a screen. In those cases where you have an elite shooter, switching the screen might make the most sense. However, the rest of the time, having a hedge from your big, going under, and recovering keeps the ball handler out of the lane and keeps the matchup Guard vs. Guard.

So what if Isaiah Wong wants to launch a 3 from 4 feet beyond the arc with the outstretched hand of a defender in his face? The guy is a career 34% 3 point shooter and with a hand in his face that number is certainly lower.

Instead of baiting marginal shooters into shooting contested shots, NC State continues to take away those shots and bet they can handle the mismatch because of their versatility.

That bet has lost a lot of games for NC State, and unless you can put together the perfect roster AND eliminate injuries every year, it’s going to continue to lose games.

It’s not rocket science, in fact, most State fans are saying a version of this same thing. Even if they aren’t aware of the intricacies of defensive strategies, they see the Pack constantly on their heels defensively.

Sure, some nights you can outscore the defensive flaws, but like we saw against Miami and Pitt, some nights you can’t.

The most frustrating thing is that this can be fixed. It just takes a little pride-swallowing and demanding defensive communication. It isn’t like Keatts doesn’t know how to teach defense. He does, he’s just teaching a system that isn’t working.

If NC State is going to reach their potential under Kevin Keatts, they are going to have to adjust their defensive strategy. Hate that statement if you want to, but after 5 and 1/2 years, it’s getting hard to argue that it’s false.