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Why do the NET Rankings Hate NC State?

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NC State is currently ranked 77th in the NET Rankings. At this point, I think it’s a valid question to ask: Why do the NET Rankings hate NC State?

The Wolfpack have a 14-7 record overall, and a 7-4 record in the ACC. For comparison, Wake Forest has a 14-7 record, and a 6-4 conference record.

NC State is ranked 77th in the NET Rankings and the Demon Deacons are ranked 41st. What gives?

Let’s look at Team Value Index. While we don’t have the formula for exactly how this is calculated, the NCAA says that it “rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home.”

Neither NC State or Wake Forest have a Quad 1 win. The Wolfpack are 0-5 in Quad 1 games, and the Deacs are 0-3. When it comes to Quad 2 wins, Wake Forest (5-4) has one more than NC State (4-2).

When it comes to Quad 4 games, neither team has lost one, but NC State has played 2 more than Wake Forest.

So, the Wolfpack have played 2 more easy games (Quad 4), but also played 2 more difficult games (Quad 1).

They are both 3-0 in Quad 3 games, so lets take a look at Quad 2 games. Wake Forest does have 1 more Quad 2 win, and have played 3 more Quad 2 games.

Here is the average NET Ranking of Wake Forest’s 5 Quad 2 wins: 57.2
Here is the average NET Ranking of NC State’s 4 Quad 2 wins: 58.75

Something that I also think needs to be looked at is the fact that the average ranking of the Demon Deacons opponents in their 4 Quad 2 losses is 88th, while the average ranking of NC State’s opponents in their 2 Quad 2 losses is 68.5.

Four of Wake Forest’s Quad 2 wins were at home. Three of NC State’s Quad 2 wins were at home.

There’s no denying that NC State’s non-conference strength of schedule is hurting them, but Wake Forest’s isn’t that much better: 324th vs. 256th.

In summary, neither Wake Forest or NC State has a bad loss (Quad 3 or 4), but Wake Forest has one more Quad 2 win.

Also, according to the NCAA, the Team Value Index is supposed to reward teams for winning on the road. NC State is 3-3 on the road, and Wake Forest is 1-5. Two of those road wins are Quad 3 games for the Wolfpack (Notre Dame and Louisville), with Boston College being a Quad 2 win, but nonetheless…3 road wins.

While I don’t know the exact formula being used for Team Value Index score (no one does), I don’t see Wake having a significant edge here. In fact, I’d say they are close to even.

Where Wake Forest does have an edge is in NET Efficiency. Wake Forest ranks 32nd in Offensive Efficiency Rating and NC State ranks 132nd. The Deacs rank 70th in Defensive Efficiency and the Wolfpack ranks 72nd.

While I am a stat junkie, I’m not sure I think a teams efficiency rating should impact their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament. As NC State’s record has shown, you can put W’s in the win column while not playing “efficient.”

So in a nutshell, as best I understand it, when it comes to wins and losses, quality of wins, where the wins took place, bad losses, and where the losses took place, NC State is neck and neck with Wake Forest. Ultimately, your ranking should primarily be based off of wins and losses, in my opinion.

Unfortunately, due to how efficiency rankings factor into the NET Rankings, Wake Forest ranks 36 spots higher than NC State.

Silly.

 

 

 

Matthew is Co-Owner of Pack Insider. He writes for all sports, with a focus on football and recruiting, and is in charge of business strategy. He is an NC State alum who majored in business. Matthew is also the lead pastor of The Point Church in Cary, NC.

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wolfpack74
wolfpack74
12 days ago

And the latest reason is that we suck when we play tournament caliber teams.

wolfpack74
wolfpack74
14 days ago

It is probably payback for making the tournament last year when clearly Clemson was a much better team than State. It could be also be that most of our losses have been near or more than double digit losses whereas Wake only has one double digit loss at UNC.

NCSUMets
NCSUMets
15 days ago

The formula is the formula and I can’t say why State isn’t ranked higher but I’m fairly sure it has nothing do with any hate directed towards our program. However, if you want to get into the tournament selection committee and how they treat us, that’s another matter. Back in 2019, we didn’t make the tournament despite a NET of 33, which was criminal. All of the people moaning about how few NCAA tourney appearances we have under Keatts need to realize that we would have gotten a birth in 2020 if Covid didn’t hit and we deserved one the… Read more »

Manywolves1pack
Manywolves1pack
15 days ago

Gonzaga is another head scratcherfor me. Lost to St. Mary’s at home and fell from 26 to 27. They’re 15-6, so one more overall win than NCSU, but also zero quad 1 wins.

wolfpack74
wolfpack74
14 days ago

If you look at Lunardi’s brackets, there is no Gonzaga listed. Even St. Marys with a 2 game lead over Gonzaga is only an eighth seed.

werewolfcat
werewolfcat
15 days ago

In the first year of the NET, NC State was beating cupcakes by 30 points and was rewarded with something like a #34 ranking. So the NET formula was adjusted the next year to cap the scoring margin factor at 10 points. But I think offensive efficiency still factors in scoring margin so it’s being counted twice, right? This weekend, Virginia beat #33 Clemson by 1 point on the road and went from #44 to #42 while Wake Forest beat #76 Syracuse by 29 points at home and went from #50 to #41. It’s weird that a higher ranked Q1… Read more »

wolfpack74
wolfpack74
14 days ago
Reply to  werewolfcat

Going up or down is also based on what other teams are doing during the week. So if teams below you have great wins then they may move above you or advance more quickly.

NC State Basketball

NC State NET Rankings Report After Syracuse Loss

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NC State lost to Syracuse 83-87 last night, and as a result, the Wolfpack fell 5 spots in the NET Rankings to #80. The Orange moved up 6 spots to #84.

(NCAA)

NC State is now 9th in the ACC in the NET rankings.

For a refresher on how the NET Rankings are calculated:

Using the quadrant system, which was in its fourth season in 2020-21, the quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding. (NCAA)

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NC State Basketball

Thoughts on NC State’s 83-87 Loss to Syracuse

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NC State’s (16-10/8-7) 83-87 loss to Syracuse this evening might have been the nail-in-the-coffin when it comes to the Wolfpack’s NCAA Tournament aspirations. They were barely on the bubble as it was, but this game and the next two games against Boston College and Florida State were “must wins.” On top of that, the Wolfpack probably needed to beat Pitt in the regular season finale, and beat either Duke or UNC.

With this loss, NC State will need a miracle. They will need to win the rest of their regular season games, which concludes with 3 consecutive Quad 1 games.

In regards to this evenings game, it’s hard to beat a team when you allow them to shoot 61.3% in the first half, and allow a guy who averages 11.3 points per game (Chris Bell) to sink 8 of 9 three’s at the halfway mark. Sure, you could make the excuse that they were just hitting everything they threw up, but the defense was lackluster, and they failed to adjust to a player with a hot hand.

What I’m about to say isn’t meant to describe a moral victory for NC State. With that being said, this team didn’t give up, and clawed back from a 15-point halftime deficit (16-point at one point in the 2nd half), to take a 1-point lead with 3:15 left in the game. That was the first time the Wolfpack had led since it was 2-0.

Senior DJ Horne was sensational once again, scoring 25+ points for the 5th straight game, matching what Cat Barber did back in 2015-16. Horne finished with 32 points, hitting 11 of his 20 field goal attempts, and an insane 6 of 8 from three.

Could you argue that Horne was fouled on the last play? I guess, but I wouldn’t have called it.

Three other Wolfpack players scored in double figures: Ben Middlebrooks (12), DJ Burns (12) and Jayden Taylor (10). Honestly, they all shot well. Middlebrooks had a double-double, with 10 rebounds.

Mohamed Diarra was solid with 7 points (3-6) and 8 boards.

Syracuse came back to reality in the second half, and ended up shooting 51% from the field, but the Wolfpack shot 47%. Both teams shot well. In fact, NC State actually scored more points off of turnovers, had more second chance points and had more free throws.

You simply can’t put yourself in a position to dig yourself out of a 16-point deficit. You can’t allow a guy to make 8 of 9 three’s in the opening half, with 6 of them being practically uncontested.

The Wolfpack have lost 3 of the last 4, and all 3 losses have been by 4 points or less. I wouldn’t say the Pack lost any of those three games due to a lack of effort. Rather, I would say it was primarily due to inconsistency, a lack of discipline and poor decisions in timely moments (Jayden Taylor’s TO with 1:13 left with the game tied).

With Wake Forest beating Pitt tonight, a Wolfpack win would have put them in 4th place in the ACC.

A big missed opportunity for the Pack this evening.

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NC State Basketball

NC State 83 Syracuse 87: BOX SCORE

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NC State has now lost 7 straight to Syracuse, falling to the Orange 83-87 in PNC Arena this evening. Below is the Box Score.

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NC State Basketball

DJ Horne is Looking to Continue His Streak of 20+ Points or More

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NC State is trying to stop a 6-game losing streak to Syracuse tonight, but Senior Wolfpack Guard DJ Horne is trying to continue a streak.

Currently, Horne has scored 20+ points in 5 straight games, which is tied with what Terquavion Smith did last year. If Horne scores 20+ points tonight, his 6-game streak will be the longest since 2015-16, when Cat Barber strung together 7 straight games of 20+ points.

Horne also has scored 25+ points in 4 straight games. If he does so again tonight, he will be the first player to do so since Barber did so in 2015-16, when he scored 25+ in 5-straight games.

What Horne has done in his coming home campaign has been nothing short of remarkable. He is shooting 43.4% from three, which ranks 2nd in the ACC. In his last 18 games, Horne is shooting 46.6% from deep. In ACC play, Horne is averaging 19.3 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the conference.

Here’s what Horne’s numbers look like over his 5-game streak of 20+ points: 26.6 points/51.8 FG%/48.8 3PT%.

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