After an improbable run in the ACC Tournament that launched them into the Big Dance, NC State was given an #11 seed and dubbed the darlings of the NCAA Tournament.

That only lasted a day, because despite an impressive win over #6 Texas Tech, it was #14 Oakland whose upset of #3 Kentucky has given them the crown of tournament darling.

Now two of America’s favorite teams in the dance will meet in what should prove to be an interesting matchup. Let me explain…

NC State has almost exclusively faced man defense all season long. With JJim Boeheim retired, and Syracuse no longer running out their extended 2-3 zone, the ACC is almost all man defense, all the time.

Will that pose a problem when they face off against an Oakland team who has played zone all season long, and whose 1-3-1 zone gave Kentucky fits all night long?

Let’s take a look at what Oakland is going to try to do…

Above is their basic match-up 1-3-1. They will have a guy pressuring the ball up top, three guys across the free throw line, and one guy in the lane protecting the rim.

The red circles are the areas where they are letting you attack. See, corner jumpers and 3s are some of the lowest percentage shots in the game, so they’re willing to leave some space there. What they are trying to take away is penetration from the guards and ‘top of the key’ or wing 3 pointers.

So how do you attack this?

Well, usually you have 2 guards up top, one guy in the middle, and two guys on the baseline corners. My guess is that you’ll see Horne and Mike O’Connell at the top.

Those guards will be tasked with driving, and pulling in the defense, and kicking to a spot on the wing where you can then enter a pass to Burns on the block. At that point, it’s one on one, and Oakland has nobody big enough to stop Burns.

My guess is that they know this, and will commit the middle guy down to double Burns. They’ll ask the defender at the top of the key to fill down, into what then would look like a 3-2 zone.

If they do this, Diarra or Morsell is going to flash to the opposite block for an easy dump off. So, Oakland is going to have to drop a 3rd guy to the paint to head that off. That’s going to leave a shooter open on the opposite wing.

This is havoc for a defense, and smart spacing and good cutting should chop this 1-3-1 zone up if they double Burns.

Meanwhile, if you can’t get it into Burns, you then want to rely on penetration from the guards, but not penetration to the wings. You want Horne and O’Connell probing to create misdirection.

Zones work mostly off of anticipation. Oakland isn’t especially tall or long, and they certainly aren’t going to be quicker than NC State, so they are going to rely off anticipation, moving to their spots before NC State gets there.

This is why O’Connell is going to be key in this game. His ability to get into the teeth of the zone, and make no-look passes will have a zone like this in flux.

NC State also has Casey Morsell, who although has struggled with his 3, is still a pretty darn good 3 point shooter from the baseline corners. Those shots will be there all day, as this defense lives with those open looks.

For NC State the goal is to make this zone move and morph. And while it will be something different than what they’ve dealt with all season, they certainly have the personnel to make that happen. The goal is to get in position to feed Burns. Once you’re there, you’re going to either have a clear advantage on the block, or force them to collapse their zone, which is going to open up all sorts of opportunities.

They keys tomorrow will be quick reads from Burns off doubles. Good penetration from Horne and O’Connell to set up shooters, fast ball movement, and quality shooting.

If NC State can do that, and lock down Oakland’s shooters, they should have a pretty clear advantage in this one.