I decided to go back and look at all of the game that Purdue either lost or struggled. I wanted to figure out what type of defense or personnel was responsible for slowing down Purdue 7’4, 300lb center, Zack Edey.

Truth is, nothing has stopped him all season long. He really hasn’t had a bad game and he stays out of foul trouble. He’s shooting 62% from the floor and 71% from the stripe.

So what should NC State be doing with their gameplan?

Well, Burns has to make it hard for Edey to get deep in the paint where he does all his damage. Burns can match his weight, and being shorter, has a lower center of gravity, so not allowing Edey to get to the block is key and somewhat doable. The problem is, Edey has about 6 inches on Burns, who already isn’t a great shot contestor. But, Edey is much more human when he’s having to shoot from 10-15 feet away from he rim.

NC State will have to put either Middlebrooks or Diarra on him when Burns is out, and both of those guys are going to be big-time mismatches with the advantage going to Edey. You could front him with Diarra, who at 6’10 with length, would make throwing over the top, quite risky, but you’ll need Middlebrooks helping pinch down on the backside. That’s possible when Purdue is playing Kaufman-Renn at the 4. He’s a guy Middlebrooks can guard and help off of. He is a 35% 3-point shooter, but at 6’9 he’s only taken 24 3s all season long. You live with Kaufman-Renn beating you.

Outside of the Edey, NC State wins the matchup battle against Purdue. They can all shoot, but with NC State switching screens, and none of the Purdue guards elite scorers off the dribble, finding clean looks is going to be tough. However, Purdue loves to create chaos by throwing it down to Edey, waiting for a double and then finding that shooter.

If I’m game-planning against Purdue, I’m going to clamp down on Edey with my 4 and 5 guys. I’m going to tell my guards to stay put as much as possible and allow Purdue’s 4-man to beat us. Purdue uses a mixture of three guys at the (4) power forward position. 6’9 Kaufman-Renn, 6’7 Camden Hyde, and 6’6 Mason Gillis. None of them average more than 6 points per game, none are super physical, but all are decent shooters.

The 4 is Purdue’s weakest link. None of them are playmakers by nature, and putting them in a position where they need to do that will have them out of sorts. Meanwhile, their guards are all dead-eye shooters, so if you double down on Edey, and rotate over to help out, they find that open shooter and make you pay.

In 3 of Purdue’s 4 losses, they shot well below their 40% clip from 3-point range. They shot 26% against Northwestern, 33% vs. Ohio State, and 31% vs Wisconsin. The other loss was to Nebraska which was an outlier because Nebraska shot 61% from 3-point range in what was just an insane shooting night (Purdue shot 40% from 3pt range which is average).

So I think I’d at first see how effective Burns can be at playing Edey one on one, using his weight to keep him out of the paint. But my guess is that isn’t going to work and it’s going to expose Burns to a lot of foul call opportunities for the officials. You can’t have Burns getting in foul trouble here, so you’ll need to double Edey. How NC State responds on their help defense will determine this game.

The Purdue guards can’t beat Horne, Taylor, and Morsell off the dribble. They’re too slow and/or too weak. But give them space and leave them open, and they’ll make you pay.

No matter what, this is a game where you can’t just roll out your guys, run your system, and expect to win. Kevin Keatts has gotten a lot of credit for this unbelievable NCAA run as he should, and he’s admitted that he’s learned to coach with a back-to-the-basket big, and without a shoot-first point guard. The key is, he’s made adjustments and he’s starting to see those adjustments lead to success. Anything he does that can slow down Edey will be unprecedented since Edey hasn’t been slowed at all this season, but it doesn’t mean he shouldn’t try. Edey is human just like anyone else, and putting him in unfamiliar and uncomfortable situations will surely make him play out of his comfort zone. And that’s really all you can ask for. It will be interesting to see how Keatts and staff strategize over the week to put NC State in the best position to knock off another literal and figurative giant.
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I’ll dig into how I expect Purdue to guard NC State, and how I expect Keatts to attack them in an upcoming article.