NC State Basketball
Previewing NC State vs. Miami: By the Numbers
#18 NC State and Miami will kickoff their ACC slate tonight down in Coral Gables at 7pm on ESPNU, but before they do, let’s break down the matchup by the numbers.
To break down the matchup, I will primarily be referencing the Four Factors that Dean Oliver made famous almost two decades ago: Effective Field Goal Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebounding Percentage, and Free Throw Rate.
Oliver concluded that these were the Four Factors of Basketball Success, with their level of importance being in that order.
- Effective Field Goal% is an alternative to FG%, which inflates when the team makes three pointers.
- Turnover Rate is an estimation of turnovers committed by a team per 100 possessions.
- Offensive Rebound Rate is the percentage of contested rebounds that a team grabs after its own missed shots.
- Free Throw Rate is the number of free throw attempts per every field goal attempt. Apart from easy points, free throws contribute towards opponent’s foul trouble. (Link)
NC State Offensive Four Factors vs. Miami
The Wolfpack enters the contest as one of the hottest shooting teams in the land, ranked 5th nationally in Effective FG% (59.5%). In comparison, Miami’s Effective FG% Defense ranks 131st nationally (49.4%).
NC State hasn’t done a good job taking care of the basketball through non-conference play, ranking 157th nationally in Turnover % (18.7%). Fortunately, the Hurricane’s Defensive Turnover % is middle of the road, ranking 70th nationally (21.4%).
The Wolfpack has shown they are one of the best nationally in crashing the offensive glass through the first 13 games, ranking 8th nationally in Offensive Rebounding % (38.5%). Miami isn’t excellent when it comes to boxing out to snag defensive rebounds, ranking 117th (27.1%).
As aggressive as NC State is at running the court, they haven’t been successful at getting to the charity stripe, ranking 211th in Free Throw Rate (32.4). The Wolfpack aren’t going to get any favors in this area from the Hurricanes tonight, who rank 3rd nationally in Defensive Free Throw Rate. They keep their hands to themselves.
NC State Defensive Four Factors vs. Miami
Miami ranks 60th in Effective FG% (54.1%), and the Wolfpack hold their opponents to an EFG% of 46.8%, which ranks 62nd nationally.
The Hurricanes don’t do a great job holding onto the basketball, ranking 101st nationally in Turnover % (17.6%). Not good sign for the home team tonight…the Wolfpack rank 3rd nationally in Defensive Turnover % (25.7%)
Don’t expect Miami to dominate the offensive glass tonight, ranking a dreary 239th in Offensive Rebounding % (26.5%). The Wolfpack have been halfway decent at keeping their opponents off the offensive glass, ranking 63rd nationally (25.4%).
Fortunately, when it comes to the last factor, Miami is weak where NC State is weak. The Hurricanes rank 205th in Free Throw Rate (33.0), and NC State ranks 267th (38.3) in Defensive Free Throw Rate. The Wolfpack aggressively foul, but Miami isn’t aggressive offensively.
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When it comes to Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, NC State holds the edge in both.
Bowling Green Transfer Guard Marcus Hill (6’4″/185) has committed to NC State!
Hill took an Official Visit to NC State this past weekend.
This past season, Hill averaged 20.5 points and 5.0 rebounds per game for the Falcons. He earned 1st Team All-MAC honors. Even though he was only at Bowling Green one season, he had one of the best seasons in school history, scoring 698 points, which ranks 5th all-time in program history for a single season.
For his first two years of collegiate ball, Hill played for Southern Union State College (JUCO) in Alabama. In 2022-23, Hill earned 3rd Team NJCAA All-American honors, and ranked as the #32 overall Junior College prospect.
247Sports ranks Hill as a 4-Star Transfer Prospect, and the #81 overall player in the Transfer Portal, and the #11 Shooting Guard.
Even though 247Sports and ON3 consider Hill a Shooting Guard, NC State is recruiting him as a Point Guard.
Hill is the 4th player to transfer to NC State this offseason, joining Louisville’s Brandon Huntley-Hatfield & Mike James, and Georgetown’s Dontrez Styles.
With the addition of Hill, NC State now has 1 scholarship remaining for next season.
NC State Forward Mohamed Diarra will not be returning to NC State for his final season of eligibility. Rather, he will give 100% of his focus to pursuing his professional career.
Diarra is declaring for the NBA Draft, and will explore that possibility as far as it goes, but the likelihood of him playing professionally in his home country of France are high.
Diarra was a significant player for NC State all season long, averaging 6.3 points and 7.8 rebounds (team high), but his impact in March was tremendous, recording 10+ rebounds in 7 of the Wolfpack’s 10 postseason games, and five of those performances were double-doubles.
Wolfpack fans will always remember the grit and mental toughness that Diarra put on display in the NCAA Tournament, playing game-after-game while fasting for Ramadan.
The Wolfpack’s frontcourt just got a little bit thinner. In the past two weeks, NC State has lost Diarra and Ernest Ross. Ben Middlebrooks is returning, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield transferred in from Louisville. Dontrez Styles transferred in from Georgetown, and while he is more of a Small Forward, in certain lineups, he could play the Small 4 position. With all that being said, I fully expect NC State to try to find another post player in the Transfer Portal with Diarra’s exodus now official.
With Diarra not returning in 2024, NC State now has 2 scholarships available for next season.
Louisville Transfer Guard Mike James (6’5″/200) has announced his commitment to NC State!
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This past year, James averaged 12.6 points per game (3rd on the team) and 5 rebounds. He’s extremely physical and aggressive, taking 47% of his field goal attempts at the rim (making 46%). As a result, he draws a lot of fouls, ranking 10th in the ACC in Fouls Drawn, and 4th in Free Throw Rate. James made opponents pay this year when they put him on the line, making 81.8% from the charity stripe, which ranked 15th in the ACC.
James shot the ball better as a Redshirt Freshman, than he did this past season. His Effective Field Goal Percentage in 2022-23 was 55.8%, which ranked 19th in the ACC, and his True Shooting Percentage of 59.6% ranked 14th.
News broke about James entering the Transfer Portal back on March 25th, and NC State was quick to reach out. Kevin Keatts and his staff recruited the former 4-star prospect out of high school heavily, but he ultimately chose the Cardinals.
After redshirting his first year in Louisville due to torn achilles, James has been a starter for the Cardinals the past two years.
He does have the ability to knock down a three, making 34.8% for his career.
James has 2 years of eligibility remaining. With James’ commitment, NC State currently has 1 scholarship available for next season.
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