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Exactly How Unlikely was NC State’s 69-67 Victory Over Clemson?

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I knew that NC State beat the odds beating Clemson 69-67 with a buzzer-beater earlier today, but I just couldn’t help myself.

I needed to know how bad the odds were as the time ticked off the clock.

(The following data is from ESPN’s Gamecast.) 

When Torin Dorn hit a three pointer with 2:24 left in the game, NC State had a 41.5% chance of winning.

Had NC State snagged the defensive rebound when Marcquise Reed missed a 3-point attempt, I’m not sure what the odds were, but they would have been better than Clyde Trapp getting 3 offensive rebounds that ended in a layup. When the ball went through the hoop, the Wolfpack had a 33.9% chance of winning.

When Markell Johnson missed a three-pointer with 1:19 on the clock, NC State’s chances dwindled down to 24.2%

When Marquise Reed followed Johnson’s miss with a successful jumper, the Wolfpack’s odds sunk to 14.8%.

When Torin Dorn missed a three-pointer with 40 seconds left, NC State’s chances dwindled to 6.6%.

When Clyde Trapp made a free throw with 34 seconds left, giving Clemson a 6-point lead, the Wolfpack had a 6.7% chance.

When Sheldon Mitchell made a free throw with 26 seconds left, NC State’s chances fell to 5%.

Markell Johnson’s and-1 play with 19 seconds made it a three-point game, but the Wolfpack still only had a 10.6% chance of winning.

When Marcquise Reed missed his first set of free throws with 13 seconds left, the Wolfpack’s chances increased to 15.4%.

Even when Reed missed his next set of free throws, with 7 seconds left, down by 1, NC State’s chances of victory were 16.4%.

Also, the odds that Marcquise Reed would actually miss 4 consecutive free throws…

Who cares about the odds anyways.

NC State is 16-4 despite the odds.

Matthew is Publisher and Co-Owner of Pack Insider. He is also the Lead Pastor of The Point Church in Cary, NC.

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NC State Basketball

The Roster for the NC State Men’s Basketball Team is all but Set Heading into 2024-25

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NC State does have 1 scholarship available, and could still add a player out of the Transfer Portal. With that being said, the roster for the Men’s Basketball team is pretty much set for the 2024-25 season.

Non-graduates had to enter the Transfer Portal by April 30th, and Graduates had to enter by May 1st. Jayden Taylor and Michael O’Connell both made public announcements that they were returning, but the closure of entrance to the Portal means that Breon Pass, Ben Middlebrooks, Dennis Parker Jr. and MJ Rice are all set to return next season.

In a world where the Transfer Portal has all but become free agency in College Basketball, with some players switching schools on an annual basis, it’s encouraging that Kevin Keatts not only recruited a Top-10 Transfer Class, but also recruited a majority of the eligible players to stay. Three players that could transfer entered the Portal (I’m not counting Mohamed Diarra in these numbers, who opted to go pro), while 6 opted to continue running with the Wolfpack.

As a result, below is a breakdown of the roster for the NC State Men’s Basketball team heading into 2024-25, realizing the Wolfpack could still add one player (this team is deep).

1 year of Eligibility 

Guard Michael O’Connell
Guard Marcus Hill
Guard Breon Pass
Guard/Forward Jayden Taylor
Forward/Guard Dontrez Styles
Forward Ben Middlebrooks
Center Brandon Huntley-Hatfield

2 Years of Eligibility

Guard/Forward MJ Rice
Guard Mike James
Guard Jordan Snell (Walk-On)
Guard KJ Keatts (Walk-On)

3 Years of Eligibility 

Guard/Forward Dennis Parker Jr.

4 Years of Eligibility 

Guard Paul McNeil
Guard Trey Parker

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NC State Basketball

NC State’s Men’s Basketball 2024 Transfer Class Ranks in the Top-10 Nationally

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NC State’s Men’s Basketball team has picked up 4 players from the Transfer Portal this offseason, and the class ranks 10th nationally according to ON3, and 15th nationally according to 247Sports.

ON3

247Sports

NC State’s 2024 4-Man Transfer Class

Center Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (Louisville)

Guard/Forward Dontez Styles (Georgetown)

Guard Mike James (Louisville)

Guard Marcus Hill (Bowling Green)

NC State still has a chance to move up in the rankings. East Carolina Power Forward Ezra Ausar just wrapped up an Official Visit to NC State, and things are looking good for the Wolfpack. ON3 ranks Ausar as the #67 overall player in the Portal, and the #15 Power Forward.

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NC State Basketball

WATCH: Andy Katz’s Offseason Convo with NC State’s Kevin Keatts

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Andy Katz is beginning to make his rounds for his Offseason Convo series, and he took the time to meet with NC State Head Coach Kevin Keatts.

In their conversation, Keatts talked about what this run has meant to Raleigh and the Wolfpack fans, how it has helped sell the program the way it deserves to be in recruiting, and even how it helped and hurt in the world of the Transfer Portal.

Check out the conversation below:

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NC State Basketball

Guard Mike O’Connell Announces He Will Play His Final Year of Eligibility at NC State

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Guard Michael O’Connell announced today that he will be playing his final year of eligibility at NC State next season.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Michael O’Connell (@michaeloc_12)

Today was the final day graduate players could enter the Portal.

This past season, O’Connell averaged 5.7 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists for the Wolfpack, starting 22 of the 41 games he played in.

O’Connell took over as NC State’s starting Point Guard on January 30th in a win against Miami.

He only scored in double figures in 9 of his 41 games this season, but 6 of those came in postseason play (5 in the ACC Tournament). O’Connell took things to another level in the ACC Tournament, playing aggressive on the offensive end, looking for his shot, and attacking the rim.

NC State played it’s best basketball of the season when O’Connell was running the show. He ranked 3rd in the ACC in Assist/Turnover Ratio (2.5).

Heading into next season, with a lineup filled with new faces, having the calming presence of a veteran leader like O’Connell is reassuring.

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